Our first post-ASB edition comes after a full seven days of action on the diamonds. And with the trade deadline looming, we’re starting to find out which borderline clubs are buyers and which are sellers. The MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-26-2024 hones in on the competitive AL East in which the Tampa Bay Rays continued divesting with Randy Arozarena joining the likes of Phil Maton and Aaron Civale as July trade fodder. The Yankees are in a position to buy, if anything, and Red Sox GM Craig Breslow indicated a need for pitching and a righty bat. Both teams are in the playoff hunt, making tonight’s series opener a big one! Let’s dive in…
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox (NYY -125, 9.5)
In terms of park-adjusted offense, the Yankees and Red Sox find themselves in the MLB’s top five since the ASB – joining the Dodgers, Orioles, and, of course, the Oakland Athletics. Aside from their one-run output against the Dodgers last Friday, the Sox put up 6 or more runs in the other two games in L.A. and throughout the three-game set in Denver. It goes without saying that hitting in Coors Field is an animal of its own. New York’s relative inconsistency left them on the short end of the stick against the Mets in a quick two-game affair after doing enough to salvage a split against the Rays.
Offensive Production Since the All-Star Break (7/19)
| BB% | K% | BABIP | Slash Line | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 12.9% | 21.5% | .290 | .249/.359/.447 | 133 |
| BOS | 7.9% | 21.7% | .327 | .278/.344/.498 | 129 |
| MLB | 8.5% | 22.9% | .283 | .237/.309/.395 | 99 |
After two straight games facing left-handed starters, the Yankees turn to their better side of the hitting splits to square off against Brayan Bello. Sans Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo, this strength boils down to the All-Star outfield tandem of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Lefty hitters Ben Rice and Alex Verdugo have been quiet this month, however, Austin Wells has done as much as humanly possible to pick up the slack. Regardless, this is still a very potent lineup in the 2 through 5 slots with Gleyber Torres arguably serving as the wild card in this one.
Does yesterday’s day off mitigate the Coors Field Hangover? Returning to near sea level and re-acclimating after a series in Colorado is always a concern in my eyes. A small adjustment for tonight has been made. Although the Sox have not been anything special against southpaws this season, a rested Connor Wong alongside Tyler O’Neill, Rob Refsnyder, and Romy Gonzalez look to incite production with Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran intermixed. Adjustments for starting pitching handedness and fielding give the Yankees about an 8% edge at the plate tonight.
N Cortes (L) vs. B Bello (R)
You can make the case that neither starting pitcher is in their best form of the season. Yankees’ lefty Nestor Cortes was tagged for a combined 11 runs against the Rays in a pair of starts sandwiching the ASB. The departed Randy Arozarena had much to do with that damage and, again, the Red Sox have not produced as much punch against left-handed pitching as the Rays have. Adding to Nestor’s case, he held Boston to a solo home run in 6 strong innings while striking out 8 batters immediately before the Tampa Bay ordeals. You look across his 3.99 ERA and 4.03 FIP/4.08 xFIP and it’s not hard to pin him to a tight range with a tendency toward the low end against the Sox.
Brayan Bello’s lone start against the Yankees this season came back on June 14th where he yielded 5 runs (4 earned) on 6 hits. The 3 walks did not help his cause. Fortunately for the 25-year-old righty, he snapped a tough run of free passes once the calendar flipped to July. Bello’s 5.27 ERA leaves a lot to be desired, as does a slightly better 4.51 FIP. The 3.61 xFIP and 3.87 SIERA skew his profile towards the low 4.00s though. The kid is a ground ball contact pitcher (51.4%) who gives up a little too much hard contact (42.9%) after all. What had me conflicted earlier this morning is his tough splits at Fenway (.301/.372/.479) running up against a more manageable July (.289/.320/.443).
Help Is On Its Way?
Weather conditions are close to baseline with a small bias toward offense. Bullpens are generally unrestricted but in lackluster form, which could make the final innings interesting. Parity between the two units potentially falls by the wayside if Aaron Boone needs to rely on the shaky left-handed duo of Tim Hill and Caleb Ferguson. The lead up to Clay Holmes in the 9th inning could be where Boston must make hay if they want to start the series on the right foot. Not to say that Boston’s relief group has a stiff advantage other than sneaky lockdown southpaw Cam Booser who should get the call to face New York’s tough lefty hitters.
WAGER: Red Sox +110
Compared to my core range, the low end offers just shy of a 1% edge. But the other end makes Boston a small favorite so there is upside from that marginal edge. The margins – and number of opportunities each day – are tightening up on me as the weeks pass, so each betting position becomes more valuable with just 60 games left in the season. BOL tonight and this weekend!
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