The MLB second half is off and running after Friday night’s display of prolific run production. We see you Toronto and Chicago! Talk about some pent up lineups around the league – except for a pair of teams with postseason trajectories that played to a 4-1 finish at the expense of Max Scherzer. Just like where I left off before the break, sometimes the most interesting matchups are those I don’t have any cash involved in. And the MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-23-2022 picks up with a handicap and no money behind it…yet, anyways. BOL this weekend!
SAN DIEGO PADRES @ NEW YORK METS (-150)
B. Snell (L) vs. C. Bassitt (R)
The second half test of playoff hopefuls San Diego and New York pits a pair of starting pitchers who may not be too different in terms of effectiveness. At least when it comes to working through the first five innings of games. And with significantly different styles. Chris Bassitt has proven to be a significant boon to the Mets rotation from the standpoint of providing consistency and – perhaps even more important – innings. His 102.0 IP leads the team despite a 7-6 record that the Padres influenced with a 7-run shelling on June 8th.
That Padres’ 13-2 victory at Petco Park was a return the favor kind of affair after the Mets got after Blake Snell in an 11-5 win two days prior. It’s well documented that Blake loses his edge significantly on the third time through the lineup – no secret there by any means. Tack on an additional .080 points of batting average for each time around, yet Bob Melvin has been willing to roll the dice a bit and push Snell this season. That’s where San Diego’s sub-4.00 FIP bullpen comes into play. In fact, both bullpens are playoff-worthy despite not being in the upper echelon alongside the Braves, Astros, and Yankees.
Where is the Edge?
Whether we want to admit it or not, both starters are solid #2 or #3 guys in good rotations. So how does that relate to tonight’s matchup? I’m willing to concede about a quarter-run edge to Bassitt over Snell with an additional inning of work on the New York starter’s right arm. Plus you get a couple lineups who slowed down heading into the break…
Offensive Comparison, Season vs. July
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDP – Season | .241 | .316 | .375 | 99 |
| SDP – July | .236 | .305 | .364 | 93 |
| NYM – Season | .251 | .323 | .394 | 108 |
| NYM – July | .228 | .306 | .380 | 100 |
Regardless of their summer slowdowns, this total of 7.5 still begs over consideration. Low-80s temps and a steady wind out to center help counteract Citi Field’s spacious dimensions. 4 runs on the first 5 inning total is also appetizing with the push being a likely outcome. San Diego’s lefty-heavy lineup surprisingly has not yielded drastic splits against right-handed hitting, while the Mets’ anchor Pete Alonso loses about 30% of productivity against southpaws – a reverse split that has only widened the last couple seasons.
Dog and/or over? Unfortunately for my tastes, there just isn’t enough on the take back to buy into Blake Snell and a small ball-ish Padres offense. Snell’s mental state and command over a wicked fastball-slider combination are what makes or breaks the guy. The fastball has been sketchy this season a la 2020 but I truly don’t mind his curve. When he loses the strike zone and offers a good-hitting lineup like the Mets multiple free passes in an inning – forget about it. That’s the gamble you have to accept when backing Snell.
As a Bassitt backer, you get a lot of positive attributes. Plenty of ground ball contact (46.6%), reasonable hard contact (34.2%) and a career-high swinging strike rate (10.7%). Plus Chris has sustained 2021’s spiked strikeout rate around a healthy 25% mark this season. But here’s the deal – both lineups are top third groups when it comes to not striking out. Don’t tell that to Bassitt after he fanned 6 in that June 8th ill-fated start at San Diego. So when multiple factors point towards this game staying under the total, why do I keep wanting to bet an over?
Heading for Home
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