Tuesday’s mixed bag produced a no harm, no foul push as the Houston offense woke up to rebuff my request to Make Unders Great Again. So much for that. After taking Wednesday off from article writing, the MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-22-2021 is back with an afternoon solo shot that asks a lot from a converted reliever and a pair of offenses that can reverse course at any moment…
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers (-134)
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. At least that’s the way I look at this afternoon’s series finale between the Rangers and Tigers. After last night’s 4-2 victory, Detroit extended their successful home stand to seven straight wins. Spoiler alert – I am passing on the first 5 inning angle that we used on Tuesday in an effort to let these teams’ offensive disparities run their course over 9 innings. Actually, 8-1/2 innings if I get my way. But we don’t get to lean on Tarik Skubal today and the first 5 inning angle looks less appetizing because of that.
Situational Offensive Factors
- TEX: 60.8
- DET: 101.1
The 40% delta in projected offensive production does not consider AJ Hinch’s roster management decisions. Detroit has played on five straight days and does not have a day off until August 2nd. So I anticipate at least two starters getting a breather this afternoon, which could knock their offensive factor down by 10% or so. Texas heads to Houston for a weekend series then gets Monday off, forcing me to anticipate their full complement of hitters today. Granted, the Rangers had a prime opportunity to break their slump against Matt Manning yesterday and only mustered 2 runs. Could today’s matchup be even juicier for them?
M. Foltynewicz (R) vs. T. Alexander (L)
27-year-old lefty Tyler Alexander gets the start today with another chance to grind out four innings for the Tigers. Alexander has been effective in regularly giving Hinch 1+ innings out of the bullpen with some spot starts/opens along the way. His last couple outings were a bit shaky as the Twins knocked him fairly hard for a pair of runs in 3.1 innings of work. Prior to that, Tyler walked 3 and gave up 1 run in a relief appearance at Minnesota. In fact, this start will snap a string of three straight appearances against Minnesota. A little change could do him good as the Twins hitters may have caught onto the third-year major leaguer.
The knock against Alexander is a low ground ball rate (38.6%) and high-ish hard hit rate (40.4%). He is hittable but exhibits good control. My personal preference is to back hittable pitchers with low walk rates – Alexander’s is 5.3% – against lineups that are on the weaker side or are in a slump. Texas checks those boxes in this post-ASB period. He offers a decent mix of pitches including a cutter that has become more of a go-to pitch, though it still needs work. So, if anything, Tyler gives the Rangers a shot at breaking out of their funk before returning home.
More Similar Than You Think
Alexander’s counterpart, Mike Foltynewicz looks to rebound after getting shelled for 10 runs by the Blue Jays on Sunday. That 1.2-inning outing snapped a four-start streak of 6 innings or greater, which tells you that Chris Woodward has confidence in the 29-year-old reclamation project. Though he isn’t afraid to pull the plug if things go south early with a rested bullpen that has been decent out of the break. As I dug into today’s matchup between Folty and Alexander, the more I recognized a fair amount of similarities between them. They both have a good mix of pitches and could stand to generate more ground balls and dial back their hard contact. Much of the latter results from having marginally effective pitch arsenals – an attribute that does not lead to their opponents having to guess very often. Fastballs look extra meaty when the breaking pitches aren’t dancing.
Foltynewicz gives his club the greater benefit of going much deeper into the game than Alexander. Yet his K rate is slightly less and the higher home run rate are liabilities – though perhaps less so at Comerica Park and against a Tigers lineup whose 26.5% K rate is as high as it gets. Since the All-Star Break, however, Detroit has cut their strikeouts back a fair amount to 22.0%. Plus Folty has been less effective on the road this season (home – 5.17 FIP/4.82 xFIP; away – 7.62 FIP/5.64 xFIP). So I give Alexander about a half-run edge in FIP over Foltynewicz despite my expectation for Tyler to hand the ball off to the bullpen with 5 innings or so left in the game.
The Availability Advantage
As I noted above, both relief units have been decent out of the break. Texas’ bullpen (3.57 FIP/4.46 xFIP) has an edge over Detroit’s (4.07 FIP/4.54 xFIP) in terms of both performance and availability. Expect the Tigers’ back-end guys of Jose Cisnero and Gregory Soto to be out of commission while the Rangers essentially have everyone ready to relieve Folty this afternoon. Detroit will need Joe Jimenez and Kyle Funkhouser to continue their effectiveness for late-inning duty while Ian Krol and/or Daniel Norris can eat multiple innings in long or middle relief, depending on Alexander’s performance.
WAGER: Tigers -134 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: Tigers -1.5 Run Line +155 (1/2 unit)
The worst part about these prices is that Detroit was a cheap -120 favorite last night. I played the run line half of the position before bed and woke up early this morning to find the money line in the -135 neighborhood. And as much as I believe in the Tigers today, laying -135 straight up kind of sucks to be brutally honest. Plus this is not a lay up short situation for me – it’s one where I want to go for the green and walk away with at least a birdie. If Texas is truly mired in an offensive slump and both starting pitchers are ripe for the picking, give me a shot at a healthy payout! The blended -1 position always leaves the risk of walking away with a push, but that’s how I get down. BOL today, as always!
Around the Horn
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