The MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-20-2021 returns after a day away from the game. After all, the “real job” rat race rears its ugly head from time to time. I left off with an overly-optimistic over bet in the Astros/White Sox series finale that unfortunately fell well short. Naturally, I identified damn near all of the reasons why that game could stay under – and was spot on in that department at least! So after last night’s blowout offensive performance across the league, seems like it’s time to make unders great again!
2021 Featured Handicap Results
***Miami/Philadelphia game from 7-17-2021 suspended to and completed on 7-18-2021 (Under 9.5 runs; game finished 4-2).
Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers (-110)
In terms of trajectory, these two out-of-contention clubs have taken different routes after the All-Star Break. Detroit ditched a four-game losing streak going into it for a four-game win streak coming out of it. Texas is pulling the opposite trick since baseball’s return, getting swept by the Blue Jays then dropping the first game against the Tigers. The Rangers’ inconsistency at the dish has turned to a disappearing act with them scoring only 2 runs over the course of the last four games.
While I can’t reasonably claim that Detroit has been knocking the cover off of the ball – until last night, at least – their lineup has been in comparatively better form overall. In fact, the Tigers face slightly less favorable splits against righties and at home while the Rangers only get a slight downgrade for being on the road. Regardless, I do not reasonably expect either offense to be explosive this evening. Plus Detroit’s 14-run outburst last night leaves me even more cautious that they may have left the gas tank on the dry side. But enough with the narrative at this point in the six-month MLB season. Here are my offensive factors for today’s matchup at Comerica Park:
Raw Situational Offensive Factors (Avg. = 100.0)
- TEX: 80.5
- DET: 93.3
D. Dunning (R) vs. Tarik Skubal (L)
This by no means is a marquee pitching matchup, though both clubs are anxiously monitoring each of Dane Dunning’s and Tarik Skubal’s starts coming down the stretch. These MLB sophomores are significant parts of their teams’ futures and we are starting to see them round into good form with each and every start. 26-year-old Dunning has excelled as a ground ball pitcher (53.8%) with a solid 3.04 K/BB ratio despite generating a 43.8% hard hit rate. Granted, Dane performed much better in his final two starts before the break – including 5.0 innings of 1-run ball against this Tigers team on July 6th. His improvement this summer has helped earned him a very respectable season-long 3.35 FIP/3.57 xFIP and could be the stopper against Detroit this evening.
Tarik Skubal, on the other hand, has not seen his numbers improve dramatically as the season has gone on. However, his 5.14 FIP/4.38 xFIP suggests that the 24-year-old is better than his typical metrics suggest. While Texas’ offensive struggles may help mitigate a lofty 45.8% hard hit rate, Tarik’s low 34.5% ground ball rate is generally concerning when you put the two factors together. The high-strikeout artist is steadily incorporating a slider into his repertoire instead of relying heavily on the fastball like he did in his rookie season. In fact, Skubal’s ground ball rate is increasing as the season progresses. And outside of a pair of tough starts against the White Sox, the young lefty has been very good at Comerica Park this year. Part of my rationale in backing the Tigers this evening actually comes down to these starters’ home/road splits…
Today’s Starters Home/Road Splits
| Home (FIP / xFIP) | Away (FIP / xFIP) | |
|---|---|---|
| D. Dunning | 2.45 / 2.92 | 4.60 / 4.48 |
| T. Skubal | 3.91 / 4.06 | 6.96 / 4.93 |
WAGER: Tigers First 5 Innings -110
As well rested as the Tigers bullpen may be, I prefer to leave them out of the equation at this point. Neither offense deserves to be leaned on heavily, even if Detroit put up 21 runs in the last couple games. My modest ratings reflect the looming potential for the Tigers especially to plummet back down to earth. So I still give them the edge tonight with Tarik Skubal having been quite effective at Comerica Park since late May. It’s not a pretty matchup by any means, but give me the team with momentum on the first 5 innings line.
Cleveland Indians @ Houston Astros
I’ll make this brief, especially after my big whiff with the Astros offense on Sunday. Until last night’s 4-3 victory over the Indians, Houston had extended their funk of scoring no more than 1 run to five of their last seven games. Obviously they broke out of that to get a much-needed win at Minute Maid Park Monday night. Conversely, Cleveland is one of those “steady as she goes” offenses that consistently produces in the 2-4 run range. Yet their current form leads me to rate both lineups as below average for game two of their three-game series:
Raw Situational Offensive Factors (Avg. = 100.0)
- CLE: 87.9
- HOU: 91.5
T. McKenzie (R) vs. J. Garcia (R)
Triston McKenzie is nothing short of an exciting pitcher to watch. And by that I mean not knowing what to expect exciting. He’s a 5.00 FIP pitcher on the road and has the ability to keep his team in the game (32.1% K rate) or take them out of it with excessive free passes (18.9% BB rate). Ironically, his 51.9% hard hit rate and 28.2% ground ball rate have not resulted in a ton of hits or home runs. In McKenzie’s very brief 82.2 innings at the major league level, the kid now has a pair of sub-.220 BABIP campaigns. Seems like he is “due” for regression, right? To be brutally honest, this all comes down to whether the Astros are still mired in a funk or if a guy like McKenzie will help them snap out of it.
Luis Garcia, on the other hand, has been a very steady force in Houston’s rotation. He gives up the occasional dud start – most recently the 4-inning, 4-run outing against Baltimore – but held opponents to just 1 run in five of his last eight outings. While Garcia’s 35.9% ground ball rate and 39.0% hard hit rate leave something to be desired, the 24-year-old’s five-pitch repertoire has kept hitters off balance and guessing for the most part in his young career. My main reservation with Luis is that you can only count on him for about five innings before Dusty has to make the call to the bullpen. At least they aren’t playing the White Sox any more…
Bullpens to the Rescue?
The Houston bullpen could be my main hesitation to back the under this evening, as it continues to operate in a mid-4.00 FIP range. But I think that gets mitigated by Cleveland’s lineup to a degree, plus you have a red-hot Ryan Pressly likely ready to go back-to-back nights in what could be a tight game. The Tribe’s relief unit continues to be reliably stout as an upper-mid-3.00s FIP group. Although Nick Wittgren will likely get the day off, Cleveland has plenty of middle relief help before going to their stacked back end of Shaw-Clase-Karinchak. This helps my case for the under, especially with Garcia on the mound and Houston likely not batting in the bottom of the 9th.
WAGER: Under 9 +100
Houston’s prolific lineup and Triston McKenzie is an extremely volatile combination. Yet I’ll buck that seemingly offensive-leaning situation and go under the total of 9 runs. Last time I zagged with the Astros – way back on Sunday – I let my boys Digger and Dorsh down big time. Redemption time or compounding of errors? We’ll find out soon enough…
Around the Horn
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