Expect no shortage of motivation in Seattle tonight as the 53-31 Baltimore Orioles face the 47-39 Mariners in a clash of American League division leaders. The AL East co-leader Orioles find themselves in a high-powered race with the Yankees, currently sitting as the 1-2 combo atop the runs scored leaderboard. And there’s no shortage of pressure in the AL West with a red hot Houston Astros club only 3 games back of the Mariners, who appeared to be running away things not too long ago. Get ready for a big series at T-Mobile Park with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-2-2024.
Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners (BAL -110, 7)
Not all division leaders are built the same. Granted, Seattle likely envisioned a more robust product at the plate coming into the season with Julio Rodriguez, JP Crawford, and Cal Raleigh supplemented by returning Mariner Mitch Garver, the left-handed bat of Luke Raley, and switch-hitting Jorge Polanco. But the reality of Polanco and J-Rod falling around 30% short of expectation has handcuffed their run production to date.
On the other hand, Baltimore continues to mash with one of the most potent lineups from top to bottom. However, the Orioles’ surge runs right into the teeth of a stingy ballpark and rotation. The stadium and typical Seattle weather conditions – cool and slight breeze in – knock production down by about 7% right off the top. Leading the league in home runs (139) may not mean quite as much at spacious T-Mobile Park, but Baltimore’s 6th-most doubles and 4th-most triples still play well given the conditions.
BAL Offense, by Period/Split
| BB% | K% | BABIP | Slash Line | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 7.2% | 21.2% | .284 | .255/.316/.462 | 120 |
| L14 Days | 7.8% | 18.9% | .307 | .284/.346/.517 | 144 |
| L7 Days | 8.5% | 19.6% | .288 | .272/.338/.522 | 142 |
| vs. RHP | 7.3% | 20.2% | .275 | .252/.313/.463 | 119 |
| MLB Avg. | 8.2% | 22.2% | .289 | .242/.311/.393 | 100 |
Back to the Mariners’ current swoon. Last week’s numbers were downright ugly for this club, though my handicap respects a return to season-long form at some point. Most of that rebound lies on Julio Rodriguez narrowing the wide gap between potential and actual results. The big problem is his free-swinging nature and the resulting empty at bats. Seattle as a whole breaking out of last week’s funk will go a long way toward hanging with this tough Baltimore team.
SEA Offense, by Period/Split
| BB% | K% | BABIP | Slash Line | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 9.0% | 27.9% | .281 | .218/.298/.365 | 94 |
| L14 Days | 9.3% | 29.3% | .268 | .203/.286/.353 | 87 |
| L7 Days | 9.5% | 35.0% | .250 | .174/.261/.303 | 67 |
| vs. RHP | 8.9% | 28.4% | .290 | .221/.300/.369 | 96 |
| MLB Avg. | 8.2% | 22.2% | .289 | .242/.311/.393 | 100 |
G Rodriguez (R) vs. G Kirby (R)
Good thing Seattle has stout right-hander George Kirby on the mound this evening. He’s as stingy as ever, making hitters work for everything. A small increase in strikeout rate over his stellar 2023 season is yielding a filthy 10.67 K/BB ratio. Tie that into a 34.4% hard hit rate that’s more than 6% lower than last year and a swinging strike rate up 0.5%. His summary metrics of 3.35 ERA and 3.03 FIP/3.33 xFIP are nearly identical to 2023 too. In terms of how the underlying numbers turn into actual results, Kirby hasn’t given up more than 2 runs in a start since May 24th seven starts ago. This is the classic unstoppable force vs. immovable object scenario – an elite offense against a top-ten starting pitcher.
Baltimore’s 24-year-old righty Grayson Rodriguez is making big strides in his second MLB season. ERA is down 0.63 points to 3.72 from his rookie campaign, pairing nicely with a 3.63 FIP/3.66 xFIP. There’s better alignment across these broad metrics so far this season. Benefitting from a BABIP that’s decreased by .015 is one thing, producing 4.3% less hard contact is another. So far, sacrificing ground ball contact for more whiffs has paid off. Plus Grayson has been fairly consistent in run prevention with one of the league’s best fielding units behind him. 11 of Rodriguez’ 14 starts resulted in 2 or fewer runs at an average of 5.88 innings/start – that’s over a half-inning per start better than 2023.
Relief For the Relievers
A break from action Monday benefits both bullpens, although Baltimore can make the case for it being more so given last week’s usage. Four of their five most effective relievers worked high-leverage innings on Friday and Saturday, with closer Craig Kimbrel and go-to lefty Cionel Perez having worked three of four days. Both units at full strength are essentially on par in a scenario where these starters work a full 6 innings. Tomorrow’s face-off between Corbin Burnes and Logan Gilbert should be another good one from multiple standpoints. As for the bullpens, they’ll appreciate having another set of top-notch starters to reduce workload and offer their managers some flexibility.
I was very curious to see what my handicapping process cranked out for this one. My gut told me there would be bias towards the better well-rounded Baltimore club. And with a tight core line range of BAL -107 to -111, last night’s instincts were more or less correct. There’s no meat on the bone for me to play this one either way on the money line. As for the total, my core number is 7.1 – 8.0. Over 7 is a consideration except the market shifted from a 7.5 juiced under to a 7 juiced over. Seems to me that the market’s early back-and-forth says a lot about two-way action and some indecision as to where these numbers go. I’ll be on the sidelines but definitely staying up to watch this battle of AL division leaders.
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