So I’m a reformed totals guy now, eh? Despite swearing them off after the 2018 season, I’ve slowly reincorporated game and team totals into the mix over the past couple years. The White Sox carried the load in Saturday’s first 5 innings totals play via three bombs against the Astros. And despite the Marlins/Phillies game being suspended in extra innings due to rain last night, that game was a dead under all the way into the 9th inning. Here’s a little fun fact for you – Vince Velasquez has now pitched 18 scoreless innings against Miami in three starts this season. I cannot explain it, but hopefully we will profit once the game is completed. Enough about that, let’s fire up a solo shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-18-2021!
2021 Featured Handicap Results
***Saturday’s Miami/Philadelphia game was suspended 2-2 in the top of the 10th inning. My under 9.5 runs wager was split between two books – one graded it a win upon suspension of the game but the other book kept the wager open. The full position will be accounted for after completion of the game.
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox (-125)
I acknowledge ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball love affair with the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry, but shouldn’t this showdown between division leaders – and legitimate AL Pennant contenders – be the prime time game? Coming into the series this looked to be the premier matchup considering the high stakes at risk. Then again, the first two games have been extremely lopsided (7-1, 1-10) so maybe today’s rubber match won’t be so intriguing. But it is arguably better than seeing Boston and New York play each other in a standalone game for the 900th time in my life. And I’m only 43 years old.
Okay, enough with the BS. We’re staring down two of the most prolific offenses of the 2021 season. Houston leads the league with 504 runs, while Chicago’s 467 is 4th highest. The Astros may be in a bit of a funk though, considering that they failed to score more than 1 run in three of four games heading into the All-Star Break. While Alex Bregman is certainly missed in the lineup, Michael Brantley made his return from the IL and all their other mainstays have been active over the past month or so. Yet the Astros are still the most prolific offense against left-handed pitching and get the “benefit” of that against Carlos Rodon this afternoon.
Offenses vs. Left-Handed Pitching
| AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | BABIP | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | .282 | .350 | .440 | .791 | .320 | 121 |
| CWS | .264 | .336 | .438 | .775 | .330 | 115 |
Chicago was recently surpassed by the Angels as the second-most productive offense against lefties, but not by much. As opposed to the Astros, the White Sox went into the break having scored 4+ runs in 13 straight games. That’s right – 13 straight games! It’s no wonder why their team total offerings have shot through the roof this year. And they’ve managed to do this without guys like Jimenez, Robert, Madrigal, and now Grandal for significant chunks of the season. But this is all narrative. What are my raw offensive factors for each offense today? (100.0 is league average)
- HOU: 102.0
- CWS: 125.7
F. Valdez (L) vs. C. Rodon (L)
This pair of starting pitchers will have a lot to say about things. Cy Young contender Carlos Rodon has a no-hitter on his 2021 resume and enters the contest with a 7-3 record due in part to rattling off five straight wins to begin the season. There has not been much deviation from his 2.36 FIP/2.95 xFIP in terms of home/road splits and the Astros throw out a lineup that effectively alternates righties and lefties. Plus the lifelong Chicago starter is delivering career-best statistics in so many categories – K%, BB%, HR/9, BABIP, LOB%, WHIP, and more.
However, I see a potential chink in Rodon’s armor as the season wears on. Perhaps the All-Star Break did him good in terms of resetting his mojo, but his last three home starts were not quite as sharp as his first four. He yielded 5+ hits and 2+ walks in each of those three outings while holding the Blue Jays to just 1 run on June 8th. In Carlos’ most recent two starts at Guaranteed Rate Field, he yielded 7 runs in 10.0 innings against Minnesota and Seattle. If Houston is in position to kick their slump this afternoon, they should generate 2-3 runs off of Rodon. But that may be a big if.
Hit Parade or Double-Up Time?
His counterpart, Framber Valdez, showed some signs of slowing down heading into the break as well. Framber missed the first couple months of the season with a finger injury and quickly ramped back into 2020 form. He fired off six straight starts of 6+ innings before hitting a bit of a wall in early July when the Athletics and Yankees tagged him for 9 runs (7 earned) on 16 hits. Perhaps the break got him right, though if Valdez continues to issue too many walks he will likely see his 3.83 FIP/3.42 xFIP continue to increase. His saving grace is an astounding 70.1% ground ball rate, which sends me a mixed message with a 43.9% hard hit rate. Chicago offers an extremely stiff test regardless of how the balls are being hit.
Both teams have their big guns rested and ready to come out of the bullpen. Houston gets a day off tomorrow before facing Cleveland, so I expect Dusty Baker not to hold back unless this game gets out of hand. Chicago, on the other hand, has a doubleheader with Minnesota on Monday to begin their four-game series. Lucas Giolito’s complete game last night is certainly a boon to their bullpen. The White Sox’ sub-4.00 FIP relief unit and Astros’ mid-4.00s FIP group could be trouble for these offenses given their rest and availability situations. But we all know just how tough it can be to gauge bullpens in a one-game outlook.
WAGER: Over 8 Runs -114
Very good pitchers. Rested bullpens. A Houston lineup in a bit of a slump. Slight wind blowing in. And here I go betting the over. Welcome to my twisted baseball handicapping mind. We’ll see if I’m a totals guy again, as I see 8 runs being a reasonable floor considering all of these factors. The monkey wrench in my plans could very well be these starting pitchers getting a healthy reset after the All-Star Break and coming out extremely sharp. But my money is on the over and there’s no turning back! BOL and enjoy the rest of your weekends.
Around the Horn
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