No complaints from me with yesterday’s Mariners/Angels handicap, perhaps other than underestimating Chris Flexen’s production against a good offensive team. His splits away from T-Mobile Park scared me off of the underdog side but the guy pitched 7 brilliant innings of 1-run ball. Seattle’s bullpen, on the other hand! Even though I’m away from my baseball HQ this weekend, I would be remiss if I didn’t get the MLB Quick Hits for 7-17-2021 out there for our loyal readers. Although I swore off totals several years ago, our guy D-Nice got me hip to team totals in the second half of 2019. Which led to me playing a handful of game totals the last couple seasons. So am I back to being a totals guy? Let’s just say I am easing them back into my betting repertoire…
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies (-115)
Z. Thompson (R) vs. V. Velasquez (R)
WAGER: Under 9.5 Runs +100
If there is anything so egregiously counterintuitive about playing an under on a hot, humid day in Philadelphia – it’s doing so with Vince Velasquez on the mound. This one could get dangerously close, especially with the Phillies bullpen likely being asked to work 4-5 innings this evening.
Z. Thompson
- 2.25 FIP/3.56 xFIP in his rookie campaign!
- 1 HR in 24.0 IP this season (Acuna’s 2-R HR in his last outing @ATL)
- 11.63 K/9 (32.0%) meshes well with PHI’s 24.9% K rate
- Ramping up workload; worked 6.0 innings in each of his last 2 starts
- BULLPEN: 3.43 FIP/4.14 xFIP (flat trend); back-end arms rested and ready
V. Velasquez
- 5.48 FIP/4.87 xFIP
- 3.76 FIP/4.27 xFIP at home (looks a bit deceiving, especially 2 of last 3 home starts)
- 4.98 BB/9 (12.7%) gets him into a lot of trouble, though MIA 8.0% BB rate is 8th lowest
- RED FLAG: 32 runs in his last 8 outings
- HEAD SCRATCHER: 0 runs in 2 starts (13.0 IP) against MIA this season (no historical bias vs. MIA)
- BULLPEN: 4.48 FIP/4.07 xFIP (positive trend)
Raw Offensive Factors
- MIA: 88.6
- PHI: 107.8
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox (-115)
J. Odorizzi (R) vs. L. Giolito (R)
WAGER: First 5 Innings Over 4.5 Runs -105
Runs, baby, runs! Let’s take out both bullpens and focus on what these offenses can do against the starters. In fact, both clubs used their relief units effectively last night in Houston’s blowout win – so both setup/closer combos and key middle relievers are available once Odorizzi and Giolito leave the game.
J. Odorizzi
- 3.44 FIP/3.99 xFIP; adjust a tick higher away from Minute Maid Park
- 4 R (3 ER) in last 5 starts (22.0 IP); against CLE, DET, BAL, TEX, NYY though
- RED FLAG: 35.9% ground ball and 46.2% hard hit rates
- BULLPEN: 4.34 FIP/4.34 xFIP (flat trend)
L. Giolito
- 4.00 FIP/3.58 xFIP; adjust a tick higher at Guaranteed Rate Field
- 10.82 K/9 (29.4%) conflicts with HOU’s MLB-low 19.1% K rate
- 18 R in last 6 starts; 5-6 IP typically yielding 2-3 runs
- RED FLAG: 16.8% HR/FB rate is highest since 2017, paired with 33.8% ground ball rate
- BULLPEN: 3.88 FIP/3.96 xFIP (flat trend)
Raw Offensive Factors
- HOU: 102.2
- CWS: 131.0
Around the Horn
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