The MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-22-2021 is missing one thing – the WTF guy with a mullet GIF after I overextended on Sunday. To be honest, I liked all of those positions and have no regrets after the fact. The little things that resulted in plenty of near misses on Sunday’s card – like 5 double plays and 19 runners left on base in the Tigers/Angels game, or the Rockies scoring 6 runs just one inning too late – are the opposite of the breaks that come through in the close wins. Experience (i.e. plenty of guy punches over the years) tells me to take it all in stride and get things going today with a good ol’ fashioned solo shot…
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Colorado Rockies @ Seattle Mariners (-160)
Oddly enough, both of these teams deserve credit for hanging in there so far this season. Well, maybe one more so than the other – but the point being that Colorado has given some heavy hitters a run for their money. And Seattle sits two games above .500 after a tremendous 6-1 homestead that wrapped up with a four-game sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays. Not bad at all.
The Rockies come into Seattle having the worst offensive production on the road (58 wRC+). Plus they have a further disadvantage of moving from a hitter-friendly ballpark to one of the stingiest. Not that the Mariners have a considerable offensive advantage at T-Mobile Park either – their 89 wRC+ is fifth lowest. I have to look at how each team’s current form is, however, and Seattle’s is trending in the right direction. They are certainly outshooting their season-long numbers at this point, so a fall back down to earth is an eventuality. In the meantime, this nice wave of theirs (trailing 7 days: .281/.324/.468, 120 wRC+) deserves a look tonight.
Topping the League’s Best
Seattle’s sweep of the Rays last weekend was nothing short of a shocker, especially how they scored 5 or 6 runs in each of the four games. It was in highly overachieving fashion, all things considered:
- 6/18 vs. Wacha (R) – 4 runs in the 1st inning; 5 runs in the first 5 innings
- 6/19 vs. Hill (L) – 4 runs, but only 2 in the first 5 innings
- 6/20 vs. Fleming (L) – 5 runs in the 2nd inning
- 6/21 vs. McClanahan (L) – only 1 run in the first 5 innings
With the exception of Michael Wacha, those starters have been solidly in the low-4.00 FIP range this season. Hell, even Wacha has stayed on the low side of the mid-4.00s for that matter. Seattle worked against him and Josh Fleming quickly but had to rely on some late-inning magic in the series finale. Tonight they face their fourth lefty starter in a row and a bottom-third bullpen. So who blinks first? The Mariners offense or Colorado’s pitching staff?
K. Freeland (L) vs. C. Flexen (R)
Chris Flexen’s return to the MLB from the KBO has been fairly successful. He keeps the ball on the ground (49.1%) and is fairly stingy with home runs (0.93 HR/9) and walks (1.60 BB/9). The biggest issue that I have with backing Flexen is how inconsistent he has been in 2021. He has a tendency to get thumped in one start then come back with 7+ innings of 0-run ball – seemingly without regard to the caliber of offense he has faced. So I want to avoid this type of inconsistency and attack what I believe is the weakest link in tonight’s game.
And that is Rockies’ lefty Kyle Freeland. When I look at who the Mariners were successful against in the Rays series, Freeland tops them all in terms of being ripe for the picking. Kyle is a 5.00 FIP type of starter that is performing more in the 6.00+ range this season. Colorado turned to him in late May as they worked around injuries in their rotation – and he responded to the opportunity with a solid 4-hit, 1-run outing in 4.0 innings at the Mets. Since then, however, Freeland has yielded 3+ runs in each of four starts. Two of those came at Coors Field (5 runs vs. Oakland and San Diego) and two on the road (3 runs at Pittsburgh and 8 runs at Cincinnati). All of that came with one of the better fielding teams behind him.
All Facets in Alignment
Freeland gets the benefit of not pitching at Coors or in the small parks of the Pirates and Reds tonight at least. However, it is difficult to look past his crippling 1.06 K/BB ratio and 34.6% HR/fly ball rate. Sure, Kyle keeps 45.6% of contact on the ground – but the guy gives up a ton of hard contact (46.9% hard hit rate, 17.3% barrel rate). His four-pitch repertoire has been negative across the board, though I have to add some caution with a .375 BABIP. Is Freeland a regression candidate or simply just an extremely hittable southpaw? The long-run answer is somewhere in between, but in this particular situation I have to run with the numbers and back the Mariners’ current form. Their lineup hasn’t been dominated by a particular hitter or two – instead, guys from top to bottom have been producing nicely enough to put up runs consistently.
WAGER: Mariners First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 +105
ALTERNATIVE: Mariners Full Game Team Total Over 4.5 -105
I truly think Kyle Freeland is the guy to attack here. But not everyone has access to first 5 inning totals or likes that approach. The full game total is fine anywhere at -115 or under, though you have to expect the Mariners not to get an at-bat in the 9th. Will the Mariners’ consistency at the plate fizzle eventually? Yes. Tonight? I sure as hell hope not! The first 5 innings plays have been good to me until Sunday, so maybe it’s my current form that I should be worried about…
Around the Horn
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