The MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-2-2021 is back after Monday’s excused absence and yesterday’s I’d rather sleep in after a long weekend unexcused absence. But I’m up early today and we move on to Wednesday’s action on the diamond. So without further delay, let’s dig into Wednesday’s solo shot. NOTE: the MLB Morning Breakdown will be out of commission tomorrow due to a work conflict but will return on Friday to attack the upcoming weekend’s action.
2021 Featured Handicap Results
New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-115)
Naturally, my overnight wager on the Chicago White Sox first 5 innings was cancelled due to Cleveland’s pitching change. So after clearing out the beginnings of a White Sox-centric article that was started last night, I quickly pivoted to Plan B – the rekindled Arizona offense. Since I am a little rushed for time to get out the door, my handicap isolates the matchup between the Diamondbacks hitters and New York’s pitching.
It took a late-inning comeback for Arizona to top the Mets last night, starting with Pavin Smith’s 3-run homer in the 6th inning. In fact, the surprising young player – who has an 11-game hit streak, by the way – has been a key part of the Diamondbacks’ recent offensive awakening. Now their offense faces a left-handed starter just like they did on Sunday against St. Louis’ Kwang Hyun Kim. And that did not turn out well for the Cardinals, much to my chagrin. Sure, Kim was not very sharp but I was not necessarily taken by surprise when they did damage that afternoon…
Kwang Hyun Kim faces an Arizona lineup that was lethal against lefties early this season. And it has been a while since they squared off against a southpaw starter, so maybe this is the remedy for their ongoing skid. Or perhaps that early-season splits success was the product of some very lopsided performances against left-handed pitching. Just ask Patrick Corbin.
MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-30-2021
Maybe There Is A Bias
Kim became yet another southpaw victim of the bolstered Diamondbacks lineup last weekend, sinking my first 5 inning bet. And even though I’m an old-ish dog, you can teach me new tricks. So here we go! Arizona has a relatively strong track record against left-handed pitching this season, slashing .244/.325/.429 with a 107 wRC+. Ketel Marte’s May 19th return from the IL was a big lift for this club, especially considering that he has hit safely in eight of those twelve games and in six of his last seven. His gaudy 269 wRC+ against lefties comes with a caveat of having only 12 such plate appearances this season. So take that with a grain of salt. But he is joined by a crew that has not gone hungry in this regard. Check out their offensive production vs. LHP (in terms of wRC+):
- Carson Kelly – 233 (41 PA)
- Eduardo Escobar – 138 (51 PA)
- Nick Ahmed – 137 (37 PA)
- Josh Rojas – 98 (43 PA)
- Josh Reddick* – 230 (10 PA)
- Christian Walker* – 114 (15 PA)
Both Reddick and Walker got the nod against Kim last weekend, squeezing out the hot Pavin Smith from of the lineup. I do not have access to the starting lineups for this afternoon at the time of publishing, so it will be interesting to see how manager Torey Lovullo juggles things around on getaway day in the desert. Regardless, there is plenty of meat on Arizona’s roster that can mash against lefties even if one of those listed above gets a day off before heading to Milwaukee.
D. Peterson (L) vs. M. Bumgarner (L)
Even if I grade David Peterson as a low-4.00s FIP starter, there are several indicators that push me toward the higher end of his spectrum this afternoon. First of all, Peterson struggled mightily when they met on May 7th and was lifted in the 2nd inning after giving up 3 hits and 3 walks. I don’t expect that quick of a meltdown today though. Second, the lefty has seen his hard hit rate bump up from 33.3% in his 2020 debut season to 38.3% in 2021 alongside an 11.3% barrel rate. Combine that with an Arizona lineup that is about 20% stronger against southpaws and there is plenty of potential for runs in the rubber match. In fact, David has given up 3 runs in three of his last four outings – including his previous start against Arizona.
Peterson has leaned on his 4-seam fastball even more this season to the tune of nearly 60%. The downside to this approach is that #1 has not been nearly as effective as it was last season. The 25-year-old also offers a slider and changeup that have delivered mixed results. David’s slider is nowhere near the wipeout pitch that we saw in 2020, though the changeup has improved into a plus pitch. The Mets will need to take full advantage of their scouting reports to avoid playing right into the Diamondbacks’ hands again today. Most of their often-overlooked hitters have strengths against at least two of those three pitch types.
Will the Bullpen Squash Scoring?
New York’s relief unit has been surprisingly above-average this season, despite ultimately coughing up the game last night in extra innings. It is stacked full of righties with the exception of Aaron Loup – who worked a flawless inning on Tuesday. They will make it tough on the Diamondbacks once Peterson is pulled, placing an emphasis on being efficient at the plate and grinding out several runs before manager Luis Rojas makes the call to the bullpen. Arizona would be fortunate to put up more than 1 run against this group depending on how Rojas plays his cards.
WAGER: Diamondbacks Team Total Over 3.5 -127 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: Diamondbacks Team Total Over 4 -105 (1/2 unit)
ALTERNATIVE: Game Total Over 8
As impressive as Madison Bumgarner was after a rocky start to his thirteenth high-league season, he has fallen on tough times since the Diamondbacks visited Coors Field a couple weeks ago. Signs point toward this game going over the total of 8, although I will be the first to admit to the troubles I have in gauging what this Mets offense is truly capable of in its current state. They’ve put up 5+ runs in each of their last three games and it is difficult to tell what mode MadBum will be in at Chase Field this afternoon. Plus you have to lay -125 to back him in the first 5 inning matchup. So give me a mini-ladder with the Arizona team total that helps to bring the blended odds down to a reasonable -116 in case the D-backs fall short of 4 runs. Let’s see some scoring today!
Around the Horn
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