R.I.P. to a legend. A pillar of the sport’s storied past. On with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-19-2024…
Detroit Tigers @ Atlanta Braves (ATL -125, 7)
Last time we checked in on the Braves, Albert Suarez was cutting through the lineup like a hot knife through butter. Then Atlanta’s cool off period let up with the help of Tampa Bay’s pitching staff. Playing at a hot Truist Park didn’t hurt the bats’ causes either but at the end of the day, slumps come and go. Offensive production is up over 35% since handicapping that game on June 11th. And after a pair of 2-1 Atlanta victories in the first two of this three-game interleague set with Detroit, this afternoon’s finale features a face-off between two of the best starting pitchers in all the land.
T Skubal (L) vs. R Lopez (R)
Among all starting pitchers with 60+ innings under their belts, Tarik Skubal finds himself #7 on the ERA leaderboard. How about Reynaldo Lopez? Well, he’s #1. This is strength vs. strength folks, and the underlying metrics don’t put up too much of a fight.
SP Comparison (2024)
| Starts | IP/Start | K% | BB% | BABIP | ERA | FIP/xFIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopez | 12 | 5.78 | 25.8% | 8.1% | .263 | 1.69 | 2.83/3.60 |
| Skubal | 14 | 6.14 | 29.2% | 4.8% | .263 | 2.20 | 2.44/2.82 |
| League Avg. | — | 5.29 | 21.8% | 7.6% | .288 | 4.03 | 4.02/3.98 |
AL Cy Young Award favorite Tarik Skubal has hit a few speed bumps along the way, most recently in his last start at Houston – one of only two losses on the season, by the way. Granted, the southpaw went all the way into the 6th inning before yielding 4 earned runs. That was also a rare instance of him striking out just a pair batters along the way. I’d be foolish not to pin Detroit’s workhorse for another 6+ inning outing, which has been par for the course in Skubal’s 2024 breakout campaign.
Especially with Detroit’s middling offense in front of him, Reynaldo Lopez also earns the nod for a 6-inning performance this afternoon. His masterful start last Thursday (6.0 IP, 2H, 0 ER) against a hot Orioles lineup might be tough to replicate yet isn’t too far of a stretch. Mid-80s temperatures, a solid breeze in from left center, and higher air pressure effectively wash out any atmospheric effects – although it’s not like either starter is especially prone to the long ball. Without respect to the opposing lineups, I grade Skubal a firm half- to full-run better than his counterpart. Much of that is due to his superior 6.13 K/BB ratio. But Lopez’ current form tightens up the gap between them. He’s delivered a strong 5.75 K/BB ratio over the last three starts.
Breaking Through
Oddsmakers have painted the game total on both sides of the 7 / 7.5 line. Eye on the over? Pay -120 and you can have the 7. Feel strongly about a pitchers’ duel? Pay -120 for under 7.5. You have options if the price is right. Going against the base case of a tight run-production environment circles back to the recent past for both offenses. The top half of Atlanta’s batting order picked up steam against the Rays, with their two hottest bats being the keys to cracking an elite Tarik Skubal. Marcell Ozuna and Austin Riley are the lynch pins against this formidable left-hander. For the Tigers, a lot has rested on outfielder Riley Greene’s shoulders to get the offense cranking. Yet his production has been spotty in the grand scheme of things.
Demands on the two bullpens should be rather limited if the handicap for 6+ innings from these starters holds true. Detroit’s Jason Foley/Tyler Holton back end is ready to jump in for a couple late innings. Brian Snitker’s relief unit is more constrained with Joe Jimenez going back-to-back nights and closer Raisel Iglesias having worked in four of the last six games. The door is ajar for the road dog behind Tarik Skubal and against the Braves’ bullpen. Where my money needs to be is on the first 5 inning total at 3.5. Whether it gets there likely rests on what numbers populate the board. It’s cheap at FanDuel this morning but all my options haven’t hung a first half number yet. Both starters have consistently been lights out in the early frames this season. Are you willing to make the contrarian case?
2024 Featured Handicap Results
Be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com – your source for our daily baseball handicapping and season previews. Want our newest content delivered directly to you? Follow us on X or subscribe below for email alerts to stay in the loop. As always, BOL with your MLB wagers!
