It might have been shaky here and there, but coming home to sweat a first 5 inning under ended up being the right move. Legitimate threats by each team in the early innings fortunately resulted in a 1-1 tie after the 5th, making my half-unit dip back into the pool a positive one. With that said, the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-14-2022 rolls on with a Tuesday three-piece Solo Shot at Coors Field. Who doesn’t like throwing money at roller coaster games in that beautiful and spacious ballpark?
MLB Results Since Last Post (6-13-2022)
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS @ COLORADO ROCKIES (+145)
S. Bieber (R) vs. A. Senzatela (R)
I took a big step back when the first two stages of my handicapping process produced strong feelings for this Guardians offense. A 25%+ advantage over the Rockies seems a bit steep after all. Maybe I’m still undervaluing the Colorado lineup? Too much emphasis on current form? If anything, Cleveland’s offensive productivity has generally been reliable through the first 2+ months of the season with marks around league-average in most categories.
Offensive Production (SLG & wRC+) by Month, CLE & COL
| CLE SLG | CLE wRC+ | COL SLG | COL wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | .410 | 107 | .424 | 100 |
| May | .372 | 96 | .384 | 87 |
| June | .384 | 100 | .344 | 69 |
| L7 Days | .403 | 105 | .289 | 46 |
Last week’s production is somewhat misleading for the Rockies as they wrapped up a 7-game gauntlet in San Francisco and San Diego. Quality NL West pitching held them to just 21 runs in that stretch. Now they return to Coors Field where their .441 slugging there has yielded a 95 wRC+. But the obvious counter-argument is this good-hitting Guardians lineup reaps the benefit of Denver’s spacious ballpark and thin, dry air. With a conservative 15% edge for the Cleveland offense, where do we stand with these starting pitchers who will try to keep their opponents off the scoreboard?
Styles Make Fights at Coors Field
Pitchers at Coors Field cannot survive on overpowering hitters alone. They have to piece together deception with a pitch-to-contact approach that leverages a good defense behind them. Cleveland’s defense has been a top five unit to date, as opposed to Colorado’s bottom-third fielding. Defending Coors Field is no easy task and Antonio Senzatela is struggling quite a bit in achieving the front office’s goals. His overall 3.85 FIP/4.35 xFIP and 4.92 SIERA are understated to his home numbers of 4.17 FIP/4.84 xFIP with a .396 average against. That’s understandable, though seeing his ground ball rate (40.9%) fall 10% from previous seasons and swinging strike rate (6.6%) drop a couple points provides context for these tougher times.
Antonio returns home to face a solid lineup with several lefties currently in a groove. Switch-hitting Jose Ramirez is always a tough out, while the return of Josh Naylor and resurgence of Steven Kwan add firepower for the Guardians. Starter Shane Bieber faces a stagnant, but capable, Rockies lineup that is very heavy with righty hitters. Veteran Charlie Blackmon poses the biggest threat to the former AL Cy Young award winner, whose 2.64 FIP/3.25 xFIP and 3.37 SIERA will be challenged in the Mile High city. Bieber’s 2022 campaign is delivering slight drops in several key metrics: ground ball rate (41.7%), strikeouts (26.0%), walks (6.1%), and hard contact (39.5%). Obviously that is a good news/bad news set of circumstances indicative of a slight shift in approach away from being a strikeout-centered pitcher towards one who keeps hitters off balance (e.g. increased use of a sharp slider).
Putting It All Together
My base scenario gives Shane Bieber about a 1-run edge to FIP over Antonio Senzatela. If I adjust both pitchers to equal footing, a reasonable betting line comes down to Cleveland -160 – right about where the market sits this morning. Asking for 3 runs over 6+ innings from Bieber and 4 runs over 5+ innings from Senzatela makes the full game under 11 runs playable. Plus both bullpens are rested and offer no worse than a range around 4.00 FIP with capable back-end arms ready to roll. Middle relief could be a sticking point if Antonio cannot get through the 5th inning, so I completely understand why you wouldn’t touch the under with a six-foot pole. Maybe Coors Field scrambles the eggs a little too much this evening but my wagon is hitched to the well-rounded Guardians club with Shane Bieber on the mound. As always, don’t overpay!
WAGER: [0.5u] Under 11 Runs -115
Manufactured -1 Run Line:
WAGER: [0.5u] Guardians -140
WAGER: [0.5u] Guardians -1.5 Run Line +120
With the betting market adjusting more towards the Guardians overnight, the manufactured -1 run line now becomes a -130 proposition (-160 ML, +100 RL). By the numbers, anything up to -130 is well within a reasonable tolerance. But the higher the money line rises the less return there will likely be from the run line component. BOL!
Today’s MLB Betting Card:
Heading for Home
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