Good to be back in the saddle after a great trip to BetCrushers HQ last week that was not without some unplanned excitement. The first two days of this week have been the epitome of choppy with a 2-2-1 record worth +0.02 units. There are some promising spots on the Wednesday slate but first let’s tee up some afternoon baseball in the desert to headline the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-11-2025. It’s a tricky one to say the least!
SEATTLE MARINERS @ ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (SEA -130, 9)
B Woo (R) vs. E Rodriguez (L)
Somehow, the Mariners have gotten lost in the AL West weeds after dropping 8 of their last 12 games. Although they are still just 3 games out of the division lead behind Houston, the Angels and Rangers are right there with them. Pitching – the franchise’s customary bedrock – has not kept up with the offense for the most part due to injury and lagging performances to an extent.
Bryan Woo is Seattle’s best starting pitcher this season, in part due to injuries with Logan Gilbert and George Kirby. Multiple plus pitches and a 6.27 K/BB ratio contribute to a 3.07 ERA and 3.31 FIP/3.51 xFIP right in the ballpark of his 2024 statement season. The 25-year-old has gone 6+ innings in all 12 starts to date, putting the ball in the hands of a very capable high leverage relief group of Andres Munoz, Matt Brash, and left-hander Gabe Speier. Baseline expectations are just that this afternoon. However, Woo gave up 2 home runs in each of his last 2 starts – resulting in back-to-back 3+ run outings for the first time this year. And both starts came with sub-.200 BABIPs.
Are They That Good?
Arizona is another team whose stock continues to slip. It does them no favors to be in a very tough NL West. They’ve lost the draft behind the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants as those clubs continue their playoff-worthy paces in the season’s first half. Widespread pitching woes sidelined starter Corbin Burnes for the season while co-closers AJ Puk and Justin Martinez sit on the IL. Both bullpens have been overly accommodating of their opponents recently, as represented by their trailing 14-day numbers. Seattle’s 6.47 ERA, 5.11 FIP/4.66 xFIP and Arizona’s 4.76 ERA, 4.70 FIP/4.25 xFIP certainly give the anything goes feeling to the late innings.
The Diamondbacks offense has produced 130+ wRC+ figures in six of their last eleven games, helping to notch them as the fifth-most prolific lineup over the past week. Bryan Woo’s weakness has been left-handed hitters to the tune of a .231/.266/.433 line. Opposing lefties are slugging long balls at a 4:1 ratio against him compared to right-handers. That’s potentially problematic against hot hitters Ketel Marte, Josh Naylor, and Alek Thomas who will hit from that side. And it’s not like Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo – also left-handed and switch-hitting, respectively – are in bad form themselves.
One Glaring Problem
Southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez has been anything but reliable for the Snakes. A career-high .367 BABIP and 1.63 HR/9 headline the veteran’s woes this season, as has a low 31.2% ground ball rate. More fly balls – especially long ones – has not been the path to success in this rebound season as E-Rod seems to have lost the handle on both his fastball and changeup. That’s troubling considering those two pitches comprise 2/3rds of his offerings to date. Hitters on both sides of the plate have found success against the 32-year-old by skill or by luck. Seattle is living the high-BABIP life at the moment (L7 days: .353), which is in alignment with Rodriguez’ giving mood.
My handicap says Seattle is overpriced at -120 or higher. At the same time, +105 to back the home dog is on the light side. The total is a tick high for my liking but a short outing from Eduardo puts a lot on the shoulders of a less-than-ideal Arizona bullpen. Plus the market is making you play for a D-backs first 5 inning total at -145 to go over 1.5 runs. There are multiple ways to approach the strengths and weaknesses of each club. But my problem is not being thrilled with any of those options…at least from a price standpoint.
Strong thoughts on how to play this final game of a volatile series? We’re all ears!
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