Yesterday’s solo shot with the Astros was mostly successful as the first 5 inning money line pushes on a 5th inning explosion by both clubs. Fenway looked awfully small last night – which was good, all things considered. That said, I have to head out early for a golf outing, so let’s get the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-11-2021 rolling on this two-play Friday!
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays (-165)
I last featured the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday in a fantastic matchup against Mets’ lefty David Peterson. It was all about this very dangerous Baltimore lineup against a southpaw who struggles against teams with very strong splits. In fact, here’s what I had to say about the O’s before they throttled Peterson that night:
That leads me to the bigger part of Baltimore’s appeal, which is how well they have hit lefties this season (.286/.340/.465; 131 wRC+). To put these splits into context, their .286 batting average is tops in the MLB alongside the Astros and .465 slugging is right behind the White Sox. That is dangerous company to be in.
MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-8-2021
Their bats were silenced in the last game of the Mets series, yet Baltimore still finds themselves in the fleeting upper echelon of offenses in the last seven days of action (.333/.373/.539, 153 wRC+). And since I don’t want to be indecisive with how to attack this setup – like last night – my key is to focus on the Orioles first 5 inning team total again. Granted, they aren’t facing a shaky left-hander in St. Petersburg like they did at Camden Yards this past week.
K. Akin (L) vs. R. Yarbrough (L)
Ryan Yarbrough is a low-to-mid 4.00s FIP left-hander who has been solid in his fourth major league season. His 4.42 K/BB is less about prolific strikeouts (19.3%) than it is about his command over a four-pitch arsenal. Leaning more on the cutter and using the slider as a weapon has earned Yarbrough a very good 27.9% hard hit rate and 37.7% ground ball rate. Both of those figures are actually slight steps in the wrong direction when compared to prior seasons, though by no means are they bad. Baltimore’s offensive profile meshes pretty well with this actually – they don’t walk (7.7%) or strike out (23.2%) much when compared to the league’s other 29 teams.
Where things get especially interesting is with Yarbrough’s last four starts. He coughed up 6 runs on 3 home runs in Baltimore on May 19th, though only 3 of those runs were earned. The next start at Toronto featured 3 solo home runs in 6 innings before a short 2-run outing against the Phillies at home. Then Ryan goes to Yankee Stadium and pitches a 2-run complete game win. He’s been touched up for 8 home runs in this four-game stretch, though none of them came at the Trop.
Home Sweet Home
Tropicana Field is not a home run park by any means, and that isn’t necessarily how the Orioles have done the bulk of their damage recently anyhow. During this hot streak at the plate they relied on just 8 home runs to score their 36 runs this past week. So if you factor Yarbrough’s primary weakness being the long ball with Baltimore’s overall less-advantageous road numbers (.229/.285/.380, 85 wRC+), this is all about momentum and whether the O’s still have it tonight. Thursday’s day of rest could be a double-edged sword. Will it cool their hot bats down, or instead get them rejuvenated for a tough opponent. After all, Monday’s day off didn’t slow them down against the Mets.
WAGER: Orioles First 5 Inning Team Total Over 1.5 -115
That said, plating 2 runs in 5 innings with such great splits against lefties is an angle that I must attack. It will be not nearly as “easy” as the David Peterson matchup, but bettable nonetheless. Plus avoiding Tampa Bay’s bullpen advantage is key in this situation. Not only do the Rays have one of the deepest and most consistent relief units in the majors, it is full of good righties. That nukes the Orioles’ splits advantage and puts them behind on the mound. If you do not have access to first 5 inning team totals, I would not reach on a first 5 inning money line of less than +140.
Los Angeles Angels @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+120)
Let’s cut to the chase with this game – it’s all about the diverging offenses between the Angels and Diamondbacks right now. Even without Mike Trout, LA’s lineup is lighting up the scoreboards (last 7 days: .284/.365/.546, 151 wRC+) by scoring 5+ runs in each of their last five games. That output has been good enough to earn them five wins in a six-game stretch. The story has been much different for Arizona, who posted a league-low 25 wRC+ in the trailing 7-day period while slashing just .153/.206/.248. However, neither of these two extremes are how I handicap this game. Expanding the recency horizon to a two-week period reveals that Arizona’s 80 wRC+ and LA’s 102 are much more moderate.
S. Ohtani (R) vs. M. Kelly (R)
The key issue with Arizona’s offense is how disparate their lefty/righty splits are. In addition to this recent slump of theirs, the D-backs hit nearly 30% worse against righties like Shohei Ohtani. Now for all of the deserved attention that Shohei gets for being a legitimate two-way player, he is by no means a lights-out pitcher. In fact, he presents a number of tradeoffs. Ohtani is a splitter-or-bust guy with an amazing 34.1% strikeout rate and 47.6% ground ball rate. On the other hand, the 26-year-old walks too many batters (14.8%) and gives up a lot of hard contact (43.7%) on top of a deceptive .229 BABIP. Yet he has a 3.60 FIP/3.44 XFIP confirming that this dude is legit. So you have to ask yourself whether the Diamondbacks are the right team to take advantage of Ohtani’s flaws, especially at this point in time.
Merrill Kelly gives the Diamondbacks a chance to stay in this game if their offense can somehow awaken to challenge Shohei. There are plenty things to like about the third-year MLB pitcher, namely a 44.4% ground ball rate and a solid 4.09 FIP/3.95 xFIP. He had a tough start to the 2021 season before finding a nice rhythm in May, but things have been a bit tougher coming into June. Kelly took his lumps with 5 runs against the Mets then 5 more runs at the Brewers. Both of those teams had worked themselves into good places offensively at the time, similar to where the Angels are at now. The exploitable facet to Merrill’s game is a 40.8% hard hit rate, though that is right in line with his career mark. Can LA’s hitters stay hot for one more night?
WAGER: Angels -130 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: Angels Run Line +118 (1/2 unit)
ALTERNATIVE: Angels -1 -110
I don’t want to overthink this, especially after going over this matchup three times last night before committing my cash. All streaks and runs come to an end at some point, including the recent divergence of these two offenses. Still, we have an Angels lineup that outproduces Arizona’s by 15+% – and worse case, the pitching situation is a wash. If you cannot effectively shop the split run line/money line position, laying -110 for a -1 on the road is not bad at all. My split position effectively gives me a -115 outlay with a shot at a +109 return if the Angels continue to roll offensively and keep the Diamondbacks at bay.
Both bullpens are in reasonably good shape right now, especially after the day off for each club. Ironically, LA may have a slight edge in this department as they have been trending positively over the last couple weeks. The Angels are in a decent state of affairs, which is worth backing because this team doesn’t align all facets of their game very often over the course of a 162-game season. It’s chalky, so find a way to get plus-money out of the deal if you can.
Around the Horn
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