The MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-10-2021 rolls your way with a solo shot after a quick day off. We left off Tuesday with a quick hit from Baltimore that was quite reminiscent of Arizona last week, though the joy from that quickly faded as my Cincinnati Reds took a night off from scoring runs. Good to see them put up the 5 runs that I needed on Tuesday in just two innings last night – and yes, my tongue is in cheek. So that was the cherry on top that officially puts the Redlegs on my 2021 no-fly list along with the Cardinals. Time to live, learn, and move on!
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox (-105)
I don’t think I’m bringing anything remarkable to the table by saying that the Houston Astros are good at hitting. More specifically, they are good at scoring runs. Houston has been trending positively at the plate for the last two weeks (.269/.373/.444, 132 wRC+) and is on the tail end of a prolific road trip in which they have scored 6 or more runs in four of their five games. This recent output exceeds the club’s season-long marks, which includes a league-leading 119 wRC+ and .268 average. It’s been a great offense to ride with this season, but could tonight be the tail end of the Houston gravy train?
Boston, on the other hand, is on a small slide when compared to what we’ve seen out of them all season (last two weeks: .240/.289/.381, 82 wRC+). The loss of JD Martinez for a few days and now Alex Verdugo has not helped matters. Although I expect the Red Sox to ratchet up the offense at some point, their funk has them operating around 20% below their normal levels. They’ll have their hands full with a crafty Zack Greinke but are poised to have an advantage once this game gets deep. Boston has a top five bullpen in terms of FIP (3.58 FIP/3.83 xFIP), although it has been tested lately in terms of usage. However, the Sox relief unit has their strongest pieces in line for work tonight – Hirokazu Sawamura and Adam Ottavino have not pitched since Monday, and closer Matt Barnes has not seen action since pitching in each game Friday through Sunday.
Z. Greinke (R) vs. E. Rodriguez (L)
Each lineup has had scattered success against each of today’s starters, with multiple players boasting career 1.000+ OPS. Grizzled veteran Zack Greinke is grinding out another quality season with his wacky four-pitch repertoire. His 6.53 K/9 rate is the lowest since 2005 but the 37-year-old also is producing a 30.5% hard hit rate that is his lowest since 2015. And that is a good thing considering that his 39.9% ground ball rate is on the decline. Much of Greinke’s success in hanging around a respectable 4.00 FIP is due to a very effective changeup that has crossed up many batters this season. He should avoid serving it to Raffy Devers, however, as the Red Sox third baseman is destroying changeups. I’ve graded Zack around 4.2 FIP with respect to Boston’s tough lineup, even if they are in a lull right now.
The Red Sox counter with sixth-year starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez. Boston’s southpaw has delivered a 3.70 FIP/3.24 xFIP that is fueled by an impressive 26.1% K rate and career-high 4.64 K/BB ratio. And although Rodriguez is in the midst of a career-high 34.9% hard hit rate, this is still respectable. In many respects, Eduardo has a slight leg up on Greinke – especially if you pay little to no attention to ERA like me. The main issue I have with him against the most qualified hitting lineup in the majors is that only his fastball has graded out positively, and that is just barely above neutral.
Accentuating Houston’s Strengths
Despite his strong outing against the Astros in early 2019, Rodriguez had a tough day closing out the month May in Houston – coughing up 6 runs on 7 hits with a low 4 strikeouts. I don’t expect that poor of an outing at Fenway this evening, however, there are plenty of reasons to side with the Astros hitters. The biggest one is simply their proficiency against left-handed pitching. Houston’s .288/.350/.458 slash line and 128 wRC+ against southpaws is one of the best in the majors alongside the White Sox and Orioles. Arguably what sets them apart from those two clubs is a more reasonable .319 BABIP that comes in around 20 points lower than the other two.
Astros Hitters, vs. Left-Handed Pitching and Trailing 7 Days
| OPS vs. LHP | wRC+ vs. LHP | OPS L7 | wRC+ L7 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gurriel | 1.031 | 183 | 1.493 | 318 |
| Bregman | .936 | 160 | .967 | 158 |
| Correa | .900 | 157 | 1.370 | 276 |
| Altuve | .847 | 138 | .762 | 112 |
| Alvarez | .831 | 134 | .792 | 130 |
| Maldonado | .832 | 132 | .771 | 121 |
WAGER: Astros First 5 Innings -110 (1/2 unit); Good to -120
WAGER: Astros First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 Runs +115 (1/2 unit)
All it takes is one excellent individual pitching performance to bring the strongest of offenses to its knees. Eduardo has the stuff to do it, though I think that tough task makes any reasonably-priced way to back the Houston lineup a good move. If anything, this split position is rooted in my indecision to go purely with runs or the matchup. Either way, I want to stay away from what should be a bullpen mismatch in favor of the Sox. I’m also aware that not everyone has access to first 5 inning team totals. So if I like both wagers, why choose? BOL today, folks – and thanks again for reading!
Around the Horn
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