With my civic duty completed and our annual Kentucky Derby party in the books, it’s time to get back in the saddle with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-8-2023. Minnesota’s first half stalemate way back on Tuesday dropped the featured handicaps back into the red. But the season is alive and kicking as the weather shapes back up for most of us in the US. With an interesting Monday slate on deck I’ve targeted a pair of iffy offenses to get the week started. BOL!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
OAKLAND ATHLETICS @ NEW YORK YANKEES (NYY -210, 8.5)
JP Sears (L) vs N Cortes (L)
Oakland missed a primo opportunity to strike yesterday afternoon in Kansas City. Aside from literally smacking Ryan Yarbrough with a liner in the 6th inning, this plucky lineup failed to menace in favorable hitting conditions at Kauffman Stadium. Fortunately, the report on Yarbrough is somewhat positive. Now they continue eastward for a three game set in the Bronx. And for the A’s, there’s no place like the road. At least when it comes to their offense, anyhow. This 8-24 ball club has found solace away from home with a 5-12 record and a little something extra at the plate.
OAK Offense, Home/Away Splits
| Slash Line | wRC+ | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | .213/.296/.329 | 86 | .271 |
| Away | .247/.324/.422 | 106 | .299 |
Hitting away from the Coliseum helps pretty much everyone, so take that with a grain of salt. But the park-adjusted numbers show a 20% premium for the A’s offense on the road. Tie this factor in with their better numbers against left-handed pitching and there is potential for Oakland to make a little noise this evening. It takes two to tango, however, and Nestor Cortes has a prime opportunity to work out his kinks.
All six of Cortes’ starts this season have produced an xFIP of 4.49 or greater. On top of that, his 19.8% ground ball rate and marginally higher hard contact – 37.4%, up 2.9% from 2022 – leave the door open for more lineups to take advantage. Sure, there was some confidence that Nestor’s .232 BABIP from a year ago would come back closer to the .275 mark…but the home run luck pendulum is swinging back the other direction so far in 2023. Are the Athletics the right squad to take advantage? Well, a first half team total of 1.5 at a reasonable price got me there. Yesterday’s lack of performance in a similar – if not more favorable – position casts doubt on this proposition, but that’s where opportunity can hide at times.
WAGER: Athletics F5 Team Total Over 1.5 -110 (1.1u)
CHICAGO WHITE SOX @ KANSAS CITY ROYALS (CHW -130, 8.5)
D Cease (R) vs Z Greinke (R)
The second featured handicap of the morning takes the other half of yesterday’s Oakland/Kansas City matchup. Is this Royals lineup finding their groove after a sluggish start, or is this recent phenomenon typical short-run overproduction in the midst of a long season?
KCR Offense, by Period
| Slash Line | wRC+ | BABIP | BB% | K% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thru 4/23 | .211/.268/.338 | 63 | .267 | 6.2% | 25.6% |
| 4/24 Forward | .247/.324/.422 | 106 | .299 | 9.2% | 20.3% |
My answer is both. Kansas City as a whole has not hit right-handed pitching well at all this season. They’ve relied on the 3Ps of Perez, Pasquantino, and Pratto to carry the load while guys like Witt, Massey, and Melendez struggle against righties. Now one of the league’s best from a year ago in Dylan Cease squares off against them at Kauffman Stadium. Cease has registered an out in the 6th inning only twice so far this season with 4.00+ FIPs & xFIPs in his last four outings. With strikeouts down and walks an occasional problem, is the door open for K.C.’s hot-ish lineup to thrive?
Dylan Cease, 2022 vs. 2023
| FIP/xFIP | SwStr% | BABIP | K/BB | Hard Hit% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.10/3.50 | 15.0% | .260 | 2.91 | 31.2% |
| 2023 | 4.34/4.45 | 12.2% | .298 | 2.26 | 52.0% |
Cease bucking the strong trend of his 2021 & 2022 seasons leaves is asking for strong improvement after seven starts in 2023. This White Sox club is on the upswing after a brutal start, which leaves me on the sideline when it comes to picking a side. K.C. catching only +120 on the money line is a little puzzling and arguably has value. A bounceback start from the AL Cy Young award runner-up is well within the cards tonight, though the Royals are still looking at 3+ innings against the White Sox’ sputtering bullpen. Baseball handicappers are no strangers to getting hung out to dry in situations like these, except the price is reasonable for another 4+ run game from a scrappy Royals lineup. Low slugging teams can be sketchy to pin down on a given night and tonight is no different.
WAGER: Royals Team Total Over 3.5 -120 (1.2u)
Heading for Home
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