One-third of the MLB season is in the books and there aren’t a ton of secrets left. Ronald Acuna Jr. is back and as good as ever, Ohtani continues to mash, and Zach Wheeler still delivers elite consistency at the head of a stocked Philadelphia rotation. Some things are close to constants in pro baseball as they come. Unfortunately, the second game of the Braves/Phillies series looks to be socked in with rain much like Cardinals/Orioles. After a sketchy yet productive solo shot in last week’s edition, today’s featured handicap comes with plenty of questions in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-28-2025.
THE ATHLETICS @ HOUSTON ASTROS (HOU -135, 8.5)
L Severino (R) vs. L McCullers (R)
The Athletics went from being a roughly .500 club at April’s end (16-15) to a season low 23-32 record after last night’s defeat in Houston. As expected, Hunter Brown stifled the A’s while the Astros’ bats went to work early and often against JP Sears. Today is a new day, however, and Hunter Brown is not on the bump to keep this lineup in check. Other than the weekly fluctuations that most MLB teams experience in addition to navigating their new hitter-friendlier home at Sutter Health Park, this has been a top ten offense in most respects other than base running.
ATH Offense, by Period (2025)
| BB% | K% | HR/G | R/G | Slash Line | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L7 Days | 12.2% | 23.2% | 1.33 | 4.17 | .284/.370/.437 | 131 |
| L14 Days | 10.1% | 21.0% | 0.92 | 3.15 | .231/.313/.363 | 94 |
| May | 8.7% | 20.3% | 1.13 | 4.17 | .259/.329/.408 | 110 |
| Mar/Apr | 7.9% | 20.0% | 1.32 | 4.26 | .254/.312/.425 | 109 |
| Season | 8.3% | 20.2% | 1.24 | 4.22 | .256/.320/.417 | 109 |
Today they square off against Lance McCullers, who battled through injury setbacks for two full seasons to get back into the ring. His early May return to action has yielded mixed results; a thumping by Cincinnati surrounded by three short, but decent outings. In a short body of work, the 31-year-old righty’s 6.57 ERA and 6.07 FIP/5.23 xFIP are skewed by the 7-run affair against the Reds. However, only his last start against the Mariners produced desirable K/BB results. Finding better command of his bread-and-butter slider and knuckle curve is one key to reclaiming past success, although walks have been an on-and-off concern throughout McCullers’ career.
Is this a right team at the right time scenario for Lance and the Astros? That’s a major component of the handicap, after all. Another foundational element is how his counterpart Luis Severino pencils out in this matchup. Houston’s lineup has been on an absolute tear (L7 days: .327/.376/.534, 160 wRC+) while the Athletics’ pitching staff as a whole is cratering (May: 6.44 ERA, 5.37 FIP/4.59 xFIP). Severino to some extent is their stopper. The veteran has given up 4+ runs in back-to-back games twice this season while holding opponents to 3 or fewer runs in each of the 7 other starts. In fact, 5 of his outings checked the quality start box. There is plenty of agreement across his high-level numbers (4.11 ERA, 3.39 FIP/4.03 xFIP) although some negative home run regression is seemingly on deck in the near future.
As rough as the A’s bullpen is this season, manager Mark Kotsay has all key relief arms at his disposal this afternoon. Unfortunately, closer Mason Miller and wingmen Grant Holman, Tyler Ferguson, and Justin Sterner have been anything but lockdown lately. Houston’s relief unit continues to be rock solid – placing greater emphasis on the A’s getting to Lance McCullers before the ‘Stros dip into their bullpen.
What’s the Move?
When I scoped this game out last night for the article, I was more optimistic with having a viable position this morning. The game models out with Houston having modest value on the full game line as opposed to the first five innings price. That bullpen discrepancy accounts for most of the price gap. The Athletics have a good scoring opportunity against Lance McCullers, although I shade him more toward his low-to-mid 4.00s expectations rather than the inflated early results.
You have to lay -135 on the A’s first 5 inning team total of over 1.5 runs to test Lance’s reality vs. projection delta. That’s one possible approach that I’m not completely sold on yet – my biggest hesitation being the precautionary early hook that reduces his exposure. Another way to fade McCullers and the A’s bullpen without going over the game total of 8.5 is the both teams to score prop. Depending on where you play, BTTS 3+ at -106 is another viable approach I am kicking the tires on. Regardless, BOL with your action today.
2025 Featured Handicap Results
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