Last weekend’s 1-1 split with the featured handicaps paints an accurate picture of my total action on the diamonds the last week or two. Choppy weeks are part of the grind and I’ve learned to take the chop in stride at this point in my handicapping “career”. As opposed to last summer’s trip to the Azores that came in the midst of running hot, I’ll gladly hop on a flight this afternoon with Ms. JJ to hit up Amsterdam and Germany for a while. That means you get a break from these crappy featured handicaps for ten days. So let’s jump right into the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-25-2023 where an interesting AL East series comes to a head. BOL today and I’ll be back on June 5th! Keep crushing!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
BALTIMORE ORIOLES @ NEW YORK YANKEES (NYY -135, 9)
K Gibson (R) vs. C Schmidt (R)
If you’ve been betting full-game sides and totals in the first two installments of this series, you know full well these games ain’t over until they’re over. An Aaron Judge game-tying homer in the bottom of the 9th on Tuesday. An 8-spot in the 7th inning from the O’s last night. That’s baseball for ya, but it’s also testament to how competitive the AL East has been so far in 2023. Even though they’re battling each other for position, these clubs are looking up at a Tampa Bay Rays team that still holds the edge in the division despite coming back down to earth a bit.
Both offenses are arguably in prime form with their trailing 7- and 14-day offensive numbers ahead of season-to-date aggregates. That certainly puts pressure on the veteran Kyle Gibson and emerging rotation piece Clarke Schmidt. If there is any relief for these two, it might be the fact that both lineups generally do less damage against righties versus left-handers.
BAL/NYY Offense, by Period
| 2023 Line | 2023 wRC+ | L14 Line | L14 wRC+ | L7 Line | L7 wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | .253/.330/.427 | 110 | .255/.317/.460 | 113 | .261/.331/.464 | 118 |
| NYY | .237/.310/.422 | 103 | .242/.321/.468 | 117 | .246/.309/.493 | 117 |
Baltimore jumping on Gerrit Cole early Tuesday night is testament to their scrappy and talented roster. The top two-thirds of the lineup has consistently produced in 2023 and sits in an advantageous position against Clarke Schmidt. New York’s starter has shown a wide handedness split gap with lefties hitting him hard and getting on base frequently.
C Schmidt (NYY), Handedness Splits
| SLG | K% | BB% | FIP | xFIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs. L | .644 | 22.0% | 11.0% | 6.18 | 4.83 |
| vs. R | .434 | 29.9% | 4.7% | 3.00 | 3.17 |
But we’re looking at just 45 innings of work this season. Does Schmidt’s .386 BABIP across his 10 starts call for regression? I wouldn’t count on it this evening, though the kid’s inconsistency makes you wonder which side the coin will land face up. He’s been more than serviceable against some of the MLB’s lightest-hitting clubs while getting thumped for 4+ runs against Tampa Bay, Texas, and Baltimore. Lefty/switch-hitters Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, and Gunnar Henderson fit that mold as right-handed pitching terrorists.
With the line hung around -135 in favor of the Yankees, this is clearly far from being a one-sided affair. Their top third of Torres, Judge, and Rizzo are producing at an ultra-high level against right-handed pitching. It’s a less diverse lineup than Baltimore’s in this regard but potent nonetheless. Gibson’s weakness against lefty hitters is similar to Schmidt’s except that the Yankees trot out only one such threat in Anthony Rizzo. But with Gleyber Torres’ 127 and Aaron Judge’s 207 wRC+ against righties, Kyle will have his hands full. There just happens to be less threats for him to work around than his counterpart.
When the Trigger Finger Isn’t Very Itchy
I’m truly stuck on this one. My handicap shows a firm advantage for the Yankees and a nod to the under. But I just detailed multiple reasons behind the case for the dog and over. When the process says one thing and eyes say another, vacation looks even more spectacular. There’s one last factor yet to be resolved, however, and that is relief pitching. While the Yankees sport a top-ten unit, the O’s bullpen has been one of the best and holds about a half-run edge to FIP. That’s an aggregate evaluation though.
Despite Tuesday night’s fail, Baltimore’s relievers are near the top when it comes to effectiveness. The door may be open in the series finale with Felix Bautista likely unavailable after back-to-back appearances. Plus Yennier Cano made an extended outing last night while Mychal Givens made his third appearance in four games. Manager Brandon Hyde has a group to work with though. Flip over to the Yankees and their bullpen situation looks to have more flexibility depending on the late-inning scenario. Their four-headed back-end group of Michael King, Clay Holmes, Wandy Peralta, and Ron Marinaccio should be ready to roll. Is that enough to make a difference? We’ll find out soon enough…
Heading for Home
Be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com: your source for free handicapping insights into our daily baseball perspectives and season previews. Want our newest content delivered directly to you? Follow our Twitter feed or subscribe below for email alerts to stay in the loop. As always, BOL with your MLB wagers!
