Talk about one hell of an “engaging” Sunday on the diamonds. And somehow I made it out the other side unscathed. A couple serious sweats in the 5th inning of both first 5 innings positions and a Coors Field under resulted in one near-miss push and three half-unit Ws. But now it’s Monday and before I dive into the “regular” workweek, let’s get the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-23-2022 rolling with a Solo Shot. BOL!
MLB Results Since Last Post (5-22-2022)
TORONTO BLUE JAYS @ ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (-110)
J. Berrios (R) vs. M. Mikolas (R)
I’m not sure that jumping on the Cardinals yesterday evening will turn out to be super critical in terms of line value, but my mind was made up and I didn’t want to overcomplicate it. In other words, don’t be surprised if this money line price bounces back and forth through the day. It is well documented how the Blue Jays offense is currently nowhere near expectation. And one could argue that the Cardinals are punching above their weight class. That appears to be reflected in my first cut handicap of this game which arrived at a 3-4% offensive edge for Toronto. Of course, those numbers are influenced more by where these offenses should be this season. As for where these teams actually are, that’s a slightly different story.
TOR vs. STL Offenses (SLG / wRC+)
| TOR | STL | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 7 Days | .342 / 94 | .439 / 127 |
| Last 14 Days | .325 / 80 | .465 / 135 |
| vs. RHP | .381 / 95 | .380 / 104 |
| Home/Road | .344 / 84 | .425 / 121 |
Other than the right-handed pitcher split, St. Louis shows strength at the plate via recent form and when they play at Busch Stadium. These factors help level the playing field between the two lineups. Both bullpens have enough middle-relief and high-leverage availability to be competitive tonight. Neither unit is top-tier and an emphasis falls on each manager to hide weaknesses and keep them primed for a tough two-game series. The slightest of edges go to Toronto in this aspect.
Arms That Make a Difference
I’m certainly not the only one who finds Jose Berrios to be a disappointment in the early goings of the 2022 campaign. Expectations for a solid 4.00 FIP season have been dashed by a 4.73 FIP/4.75 xFIP and 4.75 SIERA – talk about the wrong kind of consistency. For starters, Berrios is not getting strikeouts or swings-and-misses like he did in 2018-2020. His hard hit rate (47.1%) has ballooned 10% above typical and ground ball rate (32.4%) has sunk 10%. That’s not to say that the guy doesn’t have it. Jose pulled off 7 innings of scoreless work against Seattle last week after two duds at the Yankees and Guardians. The good stuff is still there but for the most part has been hard to find for the 27-year-old.
33-year-old Miles Mikolas’ comeback tour has been quite good so far. Outside of a rusty debut against the Pirates, Mikolas has keep opponents relatively in check – even very good lineups like the Mets and Giants. His 2.83 FIP/3.66 xFIP and 3.78 SIERA allude to performance slightly better than his low-4.00s expectation and lead me to give about a half-run edge to Miles over Jose in this one. As opposed to Berrios, Mikolas’ low 18.7% strikeout rate fits his contact-control profile of soft, ground ball contact. The 4.00 K/BB ratio says a lot and I don’t mind being on his side in this contest even though Jose Berrios has the goods to go toe-to-toe with him.
WAGER: Cardinals -110
I don’t hate taking a first 5 inning position here and removing the bullpens from the equation. My numbers for the game actually have the full game and first 5 inning win expectancies right at the same point. The tolerance for either position is very tight given the oddsmakers’ prices, plus the higher price on the first 5 pushed the limits of what I am willing to lay. Either way, St. Louis is my preferred side up to the low -120s.
Today’s Full MLB Card:
Heading for Home
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