It’s Monday morning and the perfect time to scope out a batch of fresh series kicking off across the Majors. There’s also a doubleheader day to close out the Padres/Braves series, but those are a pass for me. Instead, the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-20-2024 highlights the AL Central leading Cleveland Guardians against the reeling, but dangerous, New York Mets.
Note: I’ll be joining Paul (BankOnNASCAR.com) for the NASCAR Cup Series Coca-Cola 600 breakdown on Thursday. With a front-loaded work schedule this week, this is probably the last MLB Morning Breakdown before me and Ms. JJ jump on the big bird headed for Peru. I’ll be M.I.A. through Memorial Day week as we make the trek to Machu Picchu and other epic stuff down there. BOL and we’ll catch you on the other side!
New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians (CLE -125, 8.5)
Cleveland’s 30-17 record puts them with the Yankees, Phillies, and Dodgers as clubs that have reached the 30 win mark. The Guardians swept division rival Minnesota after taking two of three from the defending World Series Champions. Not bad. Now they start a new series against the New York Mets who look to get back on track. Sunday’s victory in Miami spared them from being swept after a rough blown victory Saturday night.
Each squad’s recent series put their relief units in different positions for tonight’s opener at Progressive Field. New York’s bullpen was run through the wringer yesterday en route to that much-needed win, one night removed from what looked to be an easy close-out job. Good thing they got a breather Friday night after an intense 11-inning victory in Philadelphia the day before that. Veterans Adam Ottavino, Jorge Lopez, and Jake Diekman are the safety net that manager Carlos Mendoza needs with All-Star closer Edwin Diaz supposedly relegated to middle relief duties for the time being.
Cleveland boasts one of the most productive bullpens in all of baseball, posting a 2.49 ERA and 2.70 FIP/3.31 xFIP through Saturday’s games. Those are league-leading numbers. And this bullpen has not wavered much at all lately. Closer Emmanuel Clase leads Steven Vogt’s crew, closing out 13 games with 3 blown saves and a 3-1 record. What more can you say? Clase delivers tons of ground balls (55.4%) on weak contact with pinpoint control and plenty of whiffs. There’s a decent chance that either he or setup man Hunter Gaddis may be reserved for the next couple games though. This is a well-rounded group, however, and is effectively at full strength tonight.
T Megill (R) vs B Lively (R)
Before the Mets and Guardians get to the bullpens, starters Tylor Megill and Ben Lively will do their things. Yep, these are a couple of names that weren’t necessarily penciled in as rotation staples back in March. Megill broke through last season as a five-inning starter with suspect control (10.2% BB) leading to a 4.70 ERA and 4.96 FIP/4.92 xFIP in his 126.1 innings. He’s back from the IL after just one start in 2024. Projections for low-to-mid 4.00s production are fair considering that Megill is not a strikeout guy per se. Despite tailing off in Spring Training, Tylor yielded just 1 run in 14.0 IP across his four rehab starts coming into tonight. Most importantly, Megill issued just a single walk in the minors.
If we expect him to be in the strike zone this evening, what will the Guardians do with the 28-year-old? They gave Bailey Ober all he could handle while outlasting yesterday’s impressive start from Chris Paddack. However, I have to devalue Cleveland’s .280/.379/.398 line over the 7-day period through Saturday night’s victory. Their production so far this season – even more so the last two weeks – is more indicative of tonight’s expectations.
CLE Offense, by Period (thru 5/18)
| Slash Line | BB% | K% | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 Days | .280/.379/.398 | 10.5% | 14.2% | 128 |
| Last 14 Days | .227/.297/.395 | 7.5% | 19.4% | 98 |
| Season | .238/.312/.393 | 7.9% | 19.8% | 103 |
| vs. RHP | .230/.305/.375 | 8.0% | 18.9% | 96 |
Tylor Megill did not show much preference against or for hitters on either side of the plate last season. Although Cleveland has feasted against southpaws so far in 2024, Cleveland throws tough lefty/switch hitters Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and Andres Jimenez at opposing righties. On the other side of the ledger, New York presents a handful of hitters thriving on right-handed pitching as well. Brandon Nimmo, Tyrone Taylor, Pete Alonso, JD Martinez, and DJ Stewart will challenge Ben Lively. Flu-like symptoms might keep Martinez on the sidelines but a hot Pete Alonso is a concern not to be taken lightly.
Lively and his robust arsenal have been a surprisingly good fill-in for Shane Bieber after the ace went down in early April. An extra day of rest could do the 32-year-old journeyman some good after back-to-back 3-run outings. The Guardians were able to overcome him yielding 3 solo home runs in Texas, though a season-high 8 hits against the White Sox were too much in that loss. He may have gotten the Sox offense at their peak but the performance tail-off in these last two starts is still a thing to consider.
Attacking Weaknesses
Much like Tylor Megill, Ben Lively isn’t going to give you tons of whiffs and strikeouts. He’s survived (so far) with the ugly combination of 25.3% ground ball and 40.7% hard contact rates. And that’s why a mid-4.00s expectation should be carried forward into this evening’s contest. That 3.06 ERA is very misleading and points toward a which offense takes better advantage situation. If you think both lineups make hay against these starters, over 8.5 might be your approach. My probable range is too wide between 8.0 – 8.8 for that though. The Both Teams to Score 3+ prop sits around -125 as an interesting alternative.
The starters may be closer to equals than it may appear. However, bullpen performance is a big factor in the final outcome. New York’s high-leverage lefty Jake Diekman will likely be rested tonight along with Reed Garrett. Adam Ottavino and Jorge Lopez should get tagged for late-inning duty with bulk bridging the gap. Cleveland holds many more options to get this one to the finish line – a key factor in my willingness to lay the favorite. I’m starting with a half-unit position on the side while I make up my mind on how to round it out. BTTS prop? Perhaps. As for now, I’m backing the Guardians with this low-margin play. BOL with your wagers tonight.
WAGER: Guardians -122 (to win 0.5u)
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