Despite bombing my featured handicaps while on the road last week, I have NOT yet been exiled from The BetCrushers Team. Yanni kept me around because I kept firing Sunday & Monday and got things back on track for the crew. Admittedly, I rushed some of my handicaps last week in order to keep some content rolling for us. That’s on me. Now that my work and travel schedule have chilled out for a bit, let’s get a Solo Shot off in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-18-2022.
FWIW, all of my baseball bets – not just the featured handicaps – go up on Betstamp in case you want to stay in the loop…
MLB Results Since Last Post
2022 Featured Handicap Results
CINCINNATI REDS @ CLEVELAND INDIANS (-135)
T. Mahle (R) vs. C. Quantrill (R)
Don’t ask me what my big hurry was to bet my Cincinnati Reds overnight. I know one thing for sure – their bullpen performance after Connor Overton’s superb 7+ inning outing solidified my stance. It’s first 5 innings or bust with this team, especially when stacked up against a more capable Guardians relief unit. Granted, one bad apple in that bunch handed Cincy the win last night via three straight walks in the 10th inning.
Connor Overton’s stifling approach is not what I can reasonably expect out of Tyler Mahle in this one. Pitch movement produced a healthy share of strikeouts and a ton of ground balls as opposed to Mahle’s below-expectation (35.6%) ground ball rate. In fact, Tyler has coughed up a home run in each of his last three starts and multiple runs in each of his last seven. A growing dependence on a splitter that has lacked effectiveness is a big part of the problem. So what should I make of his 3.45 FIP/4.14 xFIP and 4.04 SIERA not aligning with an ugly 5.89 ERA? Especially with an 11.0% walk rate not helping his cause.
Always Another Side
We almost have an opposite profile with Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill: 3.93 ERA and 4.09 FIP but 4.92 xFIP and 5.22 SIERA. Cal has made it through the 6th inning in his last four starts as a contact pitcher without terrifying swing-and-miss stuff. It’s the 14.0% K and 10.5% BB rates that add another run or so onto his expected metrics as compared to ERA and FIP. His cutter and sinker could frustrate this Reds lineup all evening, keeping the ball in the infield and turning walks into double plays.
Where I may be going wrong with drinking the Reds Kool-Aid is their offense. It’s been a bit more live these last couple weeks as guys like Tyler Stephenson, Tyler Naquin, and Kyle Farmer could be finding their footing. Even Mike Moustakas doesn’t look as lost at the plate these days. And for a low-powered team like Cincinnati their .245/.331/.413 slash line over the last 14 days is a significant improvement over the early season. The sketchy part is that the Guardians have been about 40% better this season against right-handed pitching – and Tyler Mahle is not necessarily a massive threat to Jose Ramirez and company.
WAGER: [0.5u] Reds First 5 Innings +108
WAGER: [0.5u] Reds First 5 Innings Team Total Over 1.5 Runs -120
ALTERNATIVE: First 5 Innings Over 4 -105
Jumping in with a team like the Reds requires a leap of faith. Their effectiveness against righties is steadily trending towards my season expectation but still has room to run. Likewise, Cleveland’s hot start at the plate has generally persisted and could spell trouble for Tyler Mahle. I couldn’t make up my mind on the best approach to play this game given three main options: Reds first 5 innings side, team total, or the combined total in the first half. The latter makes a ton of sense if you’re inclined to think Mahle gets knocked around. Cleveland 1-0 or 2-1 sinks me, though I have enough confidence in the Reds getting to 2 runs after the 5th and staying competitive. The key lies with Tyler keeping things together – something that I cannot help to be skeptical of.
Heading for Home
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