The MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-14-2022 drops late this morning off of a disappointing loss with the Orioles. Disappointing not so much in Eduardo Rodriguez’ good outing but with Baltimore leaving the bases loaded in the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings. The O’s 14 men left on base is part of the game and certainly happens more often than not with a lower-powered lineup. But damn, boys, hook a guy up over here! That’s all part of the deal – though I certainly do not have to like it. At least the Giants clawed back half of a unit from the books. BOL this weekend!
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Today’s post is a quick hitter involving three games where my first 5 inning numbers far outweigh the full game expectations. The key behind this is my likely overvaluing each chosen side’s starting pitcher in relation to their overall expectations. In other words, the starters that I have chosen to back – or fade – are priced differently by the market. There’s much more behind each handicap but time got away from me this morning to pound out a lot of narrative, so here we go…
HOUSTON ASTROS @ WASHINGTON NATIONALS (+145)
C. Javier (R) vs. E. Fedde (R)
First off, Erick Fedde has been quite good this season in the starting pitching role. Especially considering that the 29-year-old just held the Angels to 0 runs and the Rockies to just 1 run at Coors Field. His counterpart Cristian Javier continues his swingman/spot starter role this afternoon having been very good himself, yielding runs in only one of two starts and in six appearances overall. My perceived value in this matchup comes from the Astros lineup and what pencils out as close to a 1-run differential to FIP between Javier and Fedde.
Starting Pitchers Underlying Values
| FIP | xFIP | SIERA | Season Expectation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Javier (R) | 2.67 | 3.62 | 2.89 | 4.05 |
| E. Fedde (R) | 4.20 | 4.20 | 4.54 | 4.70 |
Washington’s offense continues to trend positively. But so does Houston’s – to the tune of 13% greater than the Nats over the last couple weeks. In terms of overall effectiveness against right-handed pitching, the Astros stand upwards of 17% per my blended values. And this is why you’re presented with the decision of -160 on the first 5 inning line or laying the hook at a lower price around -110 depending on the book. I went with the latter even though Fedde presents a tough nut to crack.
WAGER: [0.75u] Astros First 5 Innings -1/2 (-104)
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS @ ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (-105)
J. Junis (R) vs. D. Hudson (R)
San Francisco’s big 8th inning last night was plenty to separate from any late-game Cardinals threat after Jordan Hicks kept the Giants’ bats relatively in check. Much like the opener, the encore pits an over-performing Jakob Junis against the comeback bid of Dakota Hudson. In terms of offense, both clubs are sustaining above-average performance over the trailing 7- and 14-day periods. San Francisco holds low-teen % advantages over St. Louis in terms of splits against right-handers and in the past two week aggregate. The Giants’ recent .289/.403/.462 is one of the best slash lines in the MLB over the past week. Slightly better than my Cincinnati Reds, mind you. My conservative view of today’s scenario holds the Giants around 9% better at the plate. Even with Junis’ low-4.00 FIP expectation versus the actual numbers around 3.00 there is plenty of meat on the bone for a Giants backer like myself.
Starting Pitchers Underlying Values
| FIP | xFIP | SIERA | Season Expectation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Junis (R) | 2.79 | 3.25 | 2.74 | 4.10 |
| D. Hudson (R) | 5.33 | 4.89 | 4.95 | 4.60 |
WAGER: [0.75u] Giants First 5 Innings -115
BALTIMORE ORIOLES @ DETROIT TIGERS (-115)
B. Zimmermann (L) vs. M. Pineda (R)
Is this the game where a good lefty-hitting Tigers club brings Bruce Zimmermann back down to earth? Or perhaps the better question is whether the O’s hot-ish bats are cooling off sharply after leaving their friendly confines? Last night’s inability to produce with RISP – especially Cedric Mullins – may be a strong indicator of such. Either way, we could very well be looking at an evenly-matched starting pitcher showdown in the Motor City. Detroit’s strength to date has been against lefties, especially guys like Grossman, Baez, and Candelario.
Momentum could be dying out for the Orioles with Ryan Mountcastle on the IL and Austin Hays possibly out of the lineup again. That means there will be a lot of weight on the shoulders of Mullins, Santander, and Mancini to keep things moving. That said, I’ll ride with the slight dog and make the Tigers’ bats beat me and Bruce. If they are truly heating up as Baltimore runs into injury and fatigue issues, so be it. But -105 is nice in my eyes considering I handicap a value of -125 with push protection on the first 5 inning line. This could be another case of me being full of crap like last night. We shall see!
Starting Pitchers Underlying Values
| FIP | xFIP | SIERA | Season Expectation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Zimmermann (L) | 2.56 | 3.45 | 3.47 | 4.70 |
| M. Pineda (R) | 5.03 | 4.51 | 4.55 | 4.50 |
WAGER: [0.75u] Orioles First 5 Innings -105
Heading for Home
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