The MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-1-2021 is back again after a busy work week and some travel. At least that travel paid off with a very unique experience watching the Blue Jays and Braves face off in Dunedin last night. What a game from the Toronto offense and Robbie Ray. Being that close to first base in the small stadium was amazing, especially with several odd plays taking place right at the bag – a couple of great tags by Freddie Freeman and some excellent defense in the infield. Although a full slate awaits us and my betting card is growing today, I’m isolating one handicap for today’s solo shot.
Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers (+170)
Is there such a thing as “buying low” on a team that has jumped out to a 17-10 record and is arguably overachieved in the first month of the season? Well, the Red Sox aren’t in a low spot as much as their offense failed to produce more than 2 runs in four of their last five games prior to Friday night’s contest. They made a big splash early against Texas’ Kohei Arihara last night and rode that early margin to a 6-1 victory.
But let’s be honest – the Sox offense wasn’t what I felt would hold this club back in 2021. The pitching staff penciled out to be their weak spot, especially the rotation. Instead, the Boston bullpen has been phenomenal with a FIP right around 3.00 that is trending positively the last two weeks. And their key relievers are rested and ready to go. The 7th-8th-9th inning barrage of Andriese, Ottavino, and Barnes have not pitched the last two games. And the surprisingly-good Rule 5 middle reliever Garrett Whitlock is rested in case Eduardo Rodriguez cannot get into the 6th inning.
Diverging Offenses
Texas also has their key bullpen cogs available tonight after a pair of relievers did a phenomenal job of eating innings and giving their offense an opportunity to make a comeback. And to their bullpen’s credit, the Rangers’ relief unit has been respectable this season. The Friday night comeback never materialized via a combination of Boston’s bullpen strength and Texas’ struggles at the plate. While this offense has been much better than my full season expectations, it still lags Boston’s by about 20%. Plus their productivity versus left-handed pitchers (79 wRC+, .221/.282/.334) is approximately 20% below what they’ve done against righties.
On face value, the Red Sox’ bats have “slumped” a bit in recent days. In the week preceding last night’s contest, only Rafael Devers (240), JD Martinez (216), and Alex Verdugo (107) posted a 100+ wRC+. But any concern should be tempered a bit when you consider that those recent low points came against the following:
- A dialed-in Kyle Gibson who has yielded no more than 1 run in his last five starts.
- Jacob deGrom.
- Lefty David Peterson, who flashes brilliance.
- Chris Flexen on his career-best pitching performance.
E. Rodriguez (L) @ J. Lyles (R)
Last night’s offensive outburst could be repeated against a susceptible Jordan Lyles, who has given up 4+ runs in his last four starts. Only the six-inning outing at the Angels has produced a sub-4.00 FIP in those last four starts. Lyles is primarily a fastball/slider pitcher who dabbles with a curve and changeup, though his lone plus-pitch so far this season has been the slider. That meshes fairly well with Boston – a team who is decent against sliders and thrives on fastballs and curves. Plus Jordan has been smacked hard this year to the tune of a 50.6% hard hit rate and 12.3% barrel rate. By the way, Lyles has given up 7 home runs in his five starts with at least one in each outing.
Opposing Lyles is Boston’s ace, Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez’ return after missing all of 2020 has been nothing short of triumphant. His 3.33 FIP/2.81 xFIP speaks to that, as has his 13.00 K/BB rate. However, Eduardo gave up a pair of homers in both the Blue Jays and Orioles games. That’s where the power of limiting walks truly mitigates damage from the long ball. While his 36.1% hard hit rate is a career high, I can appreciate how his increased pitch mix puzzles his opponents. Rodriguez has reduced his dependency on the fastball and transitioned to more cutters and changeups. They aren’t huge plus-pitches per se, but the sequencing has been very effective to date. As always I will not lay the big juice. Instead, I’ll turn to the hairy run line to back Rodriguez and the superior Red Sox club.
WAGER: Red Sox Run Line -115
Around the Horn
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