We asked for a strong performance from Marcus Stroman yesterday and he delivered. Stroman plus a timely bomb from Dominic Smith enabled the Mets to take care of our first 5 inning wager and cash Tuesday’s solo shot. Three Ws in a row is nice, but the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-7-2021 looks for MORE! Note that since Thursday is an early travel day for me, the morning handicaps will likely resume on Friday, April 9th.
Chicago White Sox (-155) @ Seattle Mariners
We return to the scene of Monday’s play on the Chicago White Sox in which they smacked Seattle’s left-handed starter Justus Sheffield and ran away with a 6-0 win. Then last night they continued to roll with a 10-4 win against another lefty starter in James Paxton, who unfortunately left the game with an elbow injury. But the lefty bias will be sharply lessened this afternoon as the Mariners offer Justin Dunn as the final starter for this series – and he’s a righty.
And that doesn’t deter me one bit. This White Sox offense is not hamstrung by right-handed pitching as much as they are just that much better against southpaws. Still, their bats were sluggish as they rolled into town on Monday. In fact, both of these clubs underperformed slightly in their opening series of the 2021 season to the tune of about 10% below expectation. Chicago, however, has taken big strides against a Seattle pitching staff that took a big blow with Paxton exiting early last night.
Compare these offenses mano-a-mano and the White Sox are nearly 20% more productive. Factor in their splits for today’s matchup and my projections have Chicago vs. left-handed pitching 30+% better than Seattle against right-handed pitching. So if you to knock the White Sox down a tick for facing a righty – as you should – the Mariners need reduced by a couple ticks. This only exacerbates the large discrepancy between the two lineups, especially with Chicago starting to find its groove at the plate.
Late Innings Support
Bullpens will almost certainly play a large part in the outcome of this game. In general, the White Sox hold a large advantage without any usage considerations in play. Their relief unit is slightly underperforming at this early stage of the season, though it has been settling in as the team left Los Angeles for Seattle. Chicago hasn’t worked closer Liam Hendriks since Friday and lefty setup man Aaron Bummer is ready to roll as well. We saw fellow left-handed reliever Garrett Crochet do a great job of bridging between Lucas Giolito and the late innings last night. Bummer can play that high-leverage role this afternoon if needed.
Seattle, too, has several of its heavy hitters in relief ready to go as well. Closer Rafael Montero and setup man Kendall Graveman have not pitched since Saturday, so I expect one or both to get work today. This has the potential to slow the White Sox offense down later in the game. Does this concern me as a Chicago backer? Yes and no. And the “no” slightly wins out in this argument since the Seattle bullpen is settling into my preseason expectations for this unit as one of the worst in the majors.
D. Keuchel (L) vs. J. Dunn (R)
Dallas Keuchel looks to move on from his bumpy outing against an Angels lineup that is about 30% better than Seattle against left-handed pitching, and 20% better offensively overall. The 33-year-old veteran is years removed from his prime but still has enough in the tank to support Chicago’s very good lineup. And if there is any indication to what degree this Mariners’ offense should struggle against lefties, take Monday’s start by southpaw Carlos Rodon into consideration. Rodon earned his first win since 2019 with 5 scoreless innings and a superb finish by the bullpen.
The Mariners counter with their #6 starter, 25-year-old Justin Dunn. Dunn is a guy who is probably on the radar of the @tekmunnee Trifecta via his extraordinary walk rate, hard hit rate, and high line drive/fly ball rates. So despite him pitching to Chicago’s “weakness”, the White Sox have the type of lineup that can punish walks and home runs. One point I should make is that Justin was slightly better at home last season in terms of WHIP (1.16 home, 1.68 away) and xFIP (5.73 home, 7.03 away). However, the kid still gave up 7 home runs and 15 walks in 5 home starts. If he continues those ways, the White Sox should feast. The club liked the way this reliever-turned-starter looked in Spring Training, in which he reported about 10 pounds lighter and with a few more mph on his pitches.
WAGER: White Sox First 5 Innings -1/2 @ -110 (0.5 units)
WAGER: Full Game Pt. 1 White Sox Run Line +105 (0.5 units)
WAGER: Full Game Pt. 2 White Sox -150 (0.5 units)
There are several bases that I feel need covered in this game. So my position is actually comprised of three half-unit wagers to capture the early game, late game, and blowout situations. First, the first 5 innings play focuses on the starting pitching matchup that is very advantageous for Chicago. I’ve elected to trim the juice to -110 and lay the half run. If the White Sox offense is sluggish, this goes down in flames. Then half units on both the plus-money traditional -1.5 run line and the juicy -150 money line effectively create a -1 run line for an upfront -125 cost to take advantage of the bullpen discrepancy. BOL today!
Around the Horn
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