First off, apologies for no Friday post as advertised. We got hammered by a strong storm overnight and I got tied up with cleanup before getting on with the day. Tuesday’s all-day affair on the diamonds produced mixed results on my end as totals were enigmatic with strong winds abound. Garrett Crochet was on point and received run support; Tarik Skubal could not overcome a miscue by his second baseman. Funny hops, plenty of sweat, and a ton of good action mean one thing: the MLB is back and in full swing. Love it or hate it, this is the grind I had missed all winter. Let’s start the weekend at Fenway Park with a quick solo shot for the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-5-2025. Enjoy the weekend and catch you all on Monday.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS @ BOSTON RED SOX (BOS -125, 9)
A Pallante (R) vs. R Fitts (R)
If anything, the St. Louis Cardinals have been an entertaining watch this week. Yesterday’s slugfest in Boston’s home opener may be a fooler with temperatures about 20 degrees lower tonight. However, these Cardinals are no strangers to run production in one way or another. My under 8 and 8.5 tickets for the first two games of the Angels/Cardinals series went up in flames when both contests went to extras tied 3-3. Game 3 screamed if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em and that’s exactly what needed to be done. Turns out windmill slamming a blind over was the right move.
The over hit early yesterday as Erick Fedde and Walker Buehler looked more like BP pitchers, serving up 11 earned runs on 4 homers before the bullpens got involved. On that note, the Redbirds’ relief unit (4.40 ERA, 2.61 FIP/4.40 xFIP) has been sketchy with a bottom-third 1.91 K/BB ratio. Undoubtedly, that is a key contributor to the blown leads in the first two games of the Angels series and Boston’s runaway in yesterday’s game. Boston’s bullpen (2.42 ERA, 2.00 FIP/3.73 xFIP) has been sturdier to date than my outlook. Walk avoidance is keeping their 4.20 K/BB ratio in elite company. Although its composition may be more limited without the benefit of having last Thursday off like the Cardinals. Both teams are in reliever conservation mode without a day off until Thursday for the Cardinals and the week after next for the Sox.
The Meat and Potatoes
Both offenses sit in the top six for run scoring in the season’s early goings. Cardinals’ starting pitcher Andre Pallante faces a ticking time bomb with key left-handed hitters Duran, Devers, and Casas still rounding into form. Their combined 6-for-19 yesterday is a positive sign for the BoSox faithful. In fact, Cedanne Rafaela was the only Boston player that went hitless. He did walk and score a run though. Pallante’s profile as a ground ball contact pitcher could be problematic against the Sox’ high-OBP lineup that is quite active on the bases.
Tonight’s wind favors the Green Monster over yesterday’s tendency toward right field. Boston starter Richard Fitts yielded a pair of home runs in his season debut against the Rangers in Arlington. While Pallante is historically much less of a homer-prone righty, Fitts’ home run ratio gradually increased as he matriculated through the minor leagues. Is this as big of a liability with temperatures barely in the 40s and drizzle this afternoon? It truly depends on hitters like Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, and Ivan Herrera (if in the lineup) getting the ball up in the air to left. Either way, Pallante earns close to a half-run edge on paper against his counterpart. The catch with Andre is limiting walks to no more than a pair.
Despite losing left-handed hitting infielder Nolan Gorman to a hamstring injury, the Cardinals are fairly well stocked with hitters in a groove. Shortstop Masyn Winn and first baseman Willson Contreras are exceptions to this, however. When will their overachieving subside? One would think very soon but much of that comes down to quality of pitching against them. Richard Fitts isn’t quite the stopper like Garrett Crochet or even Tanner Houck, though the Boston bullpen is very capable of doing so much like they did yesterday. Regression will be a stronger headwind against St. Louis’s offense (40% over expectation) compared to Boston’s (15% over expectation).
WAGER: Cardinals First 5 Innings Ev (0.5u)
Two contact pitchers put the ball in the lineups’ courts – at least for the first 5-6 innings. The margin between these two lineups in this scenario is quite slim, despite their seasons-to-date. A small edge for the Cardinals’ hitters and for Andre Pallante make a coin flip price on the first 5 inning line worth a half unit play while I work out the rest of today’s betting card. First 5 inning featured handicaps in the early goings of the MLB Morning Breakdown this season have been underwhelming, so take that will a grain of salt. Plus I’m a little shellshocked from the St. Louis bullpen this week. Fortunately, my model points toward the full game falling into the favor of the home team so I don’t have to ride that wave! BOL with your action today.
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