Cool temps couldn’t hold the ball in the yard in Saint Louis or Washington, that’s for sure. And despite plenty of shaky moments, the AL Central tilt in Minnesota featured in yesterday’s post somehow stayed under the total. Cleveland’s hit parade in the 3rd was enough to bring home the bacon for dog bettors as well. Turns out a guy can sweat an under without any cash on it. New series are starting all over the league and it’s time to fire off the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-5-2024 before the weekend gets here and we hit the road. BOL with all your action this weekend.
New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds (CIN -125, 9)
Who would have thought that the NL Central would be the only division in the MLB not to have a team with a losing record. Don’t worry, the brakes are pumped over here – it’s only been a week since Opening Day. My 4-2 Redlegs get a Mets squad on a rebound of sorts, having scored their first win of the season in game two of yesterday’s double header with Detroit. (Congrats to Tigers “last team to be undefeated” backers.) Getting out of New York seems like a good thing after enduring some pretty crappy weather since the season started. Welcome to the cloudy, cool environs of early April in Cincinnati. At least it should be dry this evening.
Coincidence or not, we featured the Reds and Hunter Greene last Saturday in their contest against Washington and left-hander Patrick Corbin. A wild finish sunk our bet behind the Reds though as neither bullpen was up for the challenge. Alexis Diaz being the major culprit in Cincy’s 9th inning meltdown is uncharacteristic but still unsurprising. Since that rough debut, Diaz held the Phillies to 1 hit over 2.2 innings in two appearances. Bridging innings 6 through 8 was not an issue in those Monday and Wednesday games, sandwiching Tuesday’s meltdown in crappy conditions that does not go unnoticed. They’ll do that from time to time.
Despite just having played a double header, the New York bullpen is in decent shape. Reed Garrett shouldered all 3 innings of relief work in game two after manager Carlos Mendoza sent 7 relievers to the mound in the 11-inning game one. But rainouts of Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s games should keep all options open other than long man Garrett. Both units grade out roughly around league-average with a nod to the Mets. Mid-40s with a sub-10 mph breeze out helps; moving from Citi Field to Great American Ball Park, not so much.
J Quintana (L) vs. H Greene (R)
Hunter Greene backed up my hopes that a reduced-long ball Spring Training would bleed over into the regular season. So far, so good. 4 walks, on the other hand, is a concern. And the .455 BABIP in the Nats game doesn’t point toward Hunter rebounding from last year’s high BABIP. The Mets desperately need some good fortune at this point with their .157/.218/.235 line and .189 BABIP against right-handed pitching to date.
Jose Quintana’s fate in his Opening Day start wasn’t that much better, yet far from a bust. The lefty veteran shouldn’t carry the same concern of iffy command that I have with Greene. He pitches to ground ball contact with a middling sinker and mix of secondaries. Facing a lineup that has struck out at a 29.4% rate while carrying a .355 BABIP leaves a lot in the air. And those numbers are even more skewed against left-handed pitching. Quintana’s low-strikeout, high-contact profile makes for a very interesting mix with a Reds lineup that may or may not be headed for some unlucky regression soon.
The Mets have an opposite expectation in this regard. Slumps are meant to be busted, after all. Strip everything we’ve seen from these two lineups so far this year and New York arguably enters with a couple percentage point offensive edge over Cincy. That’s why I’m still struggling with laying -125 or even a market-low -116 at FanDuel. Add current form to the mix and the 55% break even number looks too good to pass on. Trust my preseason numbers or adjust after one week of action…the debate rolls on early this morning.
WAGER: Under 9 -105 (win 0.5u)
Hunter Greene’s outing last weekend spoiled by the bullpen meltdown came on a 75 degree day with a stiff cross wind. This evening’s conditions will be less amenable to prolific run production, though one should never underestimate the dimensions of GABP. If I can’t get there with the Reds side, it’s because I’m less optimistic that their top five slugging and BABIP will persist. That leaves the opportunity to finish off the under position that I started. For a second day in a row, I’m still on the fence with the featured handicap.
2024 Featured Handicap Results
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