For the second time this season, my expectations for a Royals starter were way too high compared to what took place on the field. Brady Singer just did not have the stuff I called for and my solo shot of the day backing the Royals went up in flames. But I cut the juice down on the Royals play and minimized the damage to the bankroll. As disappointing as it is to dip into the red for the first time this season, we plod along as the opening weekend of the 2021 season gives way to a full day of action. So let’s fire up the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-5-2021 and find some winners!
| Wins | Losses | Net Units | ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-4-2021 | 0 | 2 | -1.35 | -100% |
| SEASON | 3 | 5 | -0.66 | -9.2% |
Chicago White Sox (-120) @ Seattle Mariners
The Chicago White Sox are thrilled to leave California after dropping three of four to an Angels team that is trying to turn the corner again this year. And we don’t know how much of LA’s success resulted from improved pitching or from Chicago’s slow start at the plate. Or maybe it was a combination of the two. Then again, the White Sox are without one of their most productive hitters, Eloy Jimenez, this season. Seattle, on the other hand, had yesterday off after winning their opening series against the Giants.
Both teams’ offenses have performed near expectation, with Seattle currently slightly outperforming. Of course we are talking about just three or four games into the season. And the Mariners have tread water successfully so far without AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis. However, the ChiSox hitters are a tougher group to tame than San Francisco. Plus consider that this crew feasted on left-handed pitching last season to the tune of about 30% above their overall production. And guess who they square off again this evening? Lefty Justus Sheffield.
Battle of the Splits
In fact, both teams throw a lefty starter on the mound tonight. The effects of southpaw pitching on each lineup is completely opposite, as the Mariners struggled mightily in 2020. And I expect each team’s splits to persist in 2021 despite my knocking Chicago’s production down significantly due to general regression and the loss of Jimenez. Seattle had just three playerswho were relatively successful versus lefties last season – Kyle Lewis, Austin Nola, and Sam Haggerty. Yet only Haggery is on the team and ready to play tonight.
As for the Sox, they return four lefty killers from last season. Tim Anderson, Yasmani Grandal, Jose Abreu, and Luis Robert all notched a 120 wRC+ or greater in such situations. In very limited work this year, this split has held true for this group except for Anderson. That’s primarily due to the White Sox making a ton of hay against Angels’ left-handed starter Andrew Heaney the other night. But Chicago also found a new weapon in Yermin Mercedes who was slotted in at DH against Heaney and has started in this role in both games since his season debut.
Narrowing the Gap Between the Bullpens
In a vacuum, Chicago has a much better relief unit from top to bottom. However, bullpen availability could have a significant effect on tonight’s contest. Seattle is rested after having Sunday off and can throw pretty much anyone they want at the Sox. The visitors are more limited, though they may only miss Aaron Bummer’s services after working last night. He is a key lefty reliever who could help lock things down against the Mariners, but his southpaw partner Garrett Crochet is ready to roll. Closer Liam Hendriks should get some work unless this thing is a blowout and swingman Michael Kopesch is on call in case starter Carlos Rodon gets pulled early. I still give the White Sox an edge in relief, just not as strong as compared to them being at full strength.
C. Rodon (L) vs. J. Sheffield (L)
Justus Sheffield has a tough task facing off against a hungry White Sox lineup that still means business against lefties. There is a lot to like about this 24-year-old fastball/slider/changeup hurler, especially the gains he made last year with control. Sheffield got stronger as the season went on, although I could nit pick and say that the level of offenses also scaled back a bit. Nonetheless, I like this kid but he has his hands full today. The White Sox have a lineup mixed with righties, lefties, and switch hitters that can take advantage if Sheffield is not sharp.
On the other side of the ledger is a very sketchy starter in Carlos Rodon. Quite frankly, he hasn’t produced to a mid-rotation standard since 2016. But when you look at Rodon’s splits, his struggles have been mostly against right-handed hitters. He’s nearly 1 run worse with righties hitting for average about 30 bps better due to less strikeouts and more home runs. The flip side to this weakness is the fact that only one of Seattle’s key right-handed hitters – Mitch Haniger, Ty France, Evan White, and Dylan Moore – has thrived on lefty pitching. And that is Mitch Haniger, who has returned nicely from injury this season.
WAGER: White Sox -119 (Good to -135)
By backing the White Sox, I’m definitely not saying that Rodon will be tough to hit off. In fact, it’s more about Seattle not being the right team to take advantage. Conversely, the indicators point to another big offensive day from Chicago against a lefty starter and a less talented bullpen.
Toronto Blue Jays (-160) @ Texas Rangers
I’ll be brief with this one. Despite winning their opening series in the Bronx this weekend, the Toronto offense really hasn’t gotten out of second gear. That’s partially attributable to the great relief pitching of the Yankees and good starts from the likes of Gerrit Cole and Corey Kluber. Now they’re in the Lone Star State where the weather is not an issue and the Rangers pitching is much more favorable. Texas has been knocking the ball around well against subpar pitching, making me very hesitant to fade them by laying big juice – even if I expect them to come back to earth soon.
S. Matz (L) vs. M. Foltynewicz (R)
And today is not the day that I would expect the Rangers to come down off of their offensive high. Steven Matz has continued to decline since his breakout in 2016 and will need a lot of run support this season to avoid disaster. But his counterpart Mike Foltynewicz is the guy I want to exploit today. I’m banking on the Toronto bats waking up – specifically those of Biggio, Bichette, and Gurriel. Foltynewicz’ velocities were up in Spring Training, enabling him to breeze in his early starts before having a rougher finale against Milwaukee. And the Jays will likely scuffle again this afternoon if Folty’s velocities are up and command is sharp.
WAGER: Blue Jays Team Total Over 5 @ -120
I’m not a buyer on Foltynewicz’ resurgence though. He is susceptible to the long ball and Globe Life Field is not necessarily a pitcher’s park. I’ve certainly been proven wrong an uncountable amount of times betting the MLB for about 10 years now, so counting on a Toronto offensive breakout against a guy looking to make a comeback of his own is risky. Plus the risk factor is cranked up when betting a team total over 5 runs. The Jays fell short of their total by a run on Saturday but gets a significantly less dominant bullpen when compared to the Yankees. If Folty is on, this bet is cooked. If he is who I think he is, the Jays should get their offense into high gear in Arlington.
Around the Horn
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