The MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-29-2024 takes on a matchup between squads exiting big series against playoff contenders. In the meantime, an interesting thing to note: we’re 4+ weeks into the 2024 season and scoring is down about one-tenth of a run per team/game compared to this point last year. Lingering cool weather east of the Mississippi early on to blame? Defensive adaptation to 2023’s new rules and environment? Maybe a bit of both. Regardless, this is a factor your handicapping must take into account. Without further delay, let’s kick the week off with a Solo Shot in San Diego. BOL!
Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres (SDP -110, 8.5)
The Cincinnati Reds travel to Petco Park for a three-game set to close out their quick road trip out west. Sunday’s late bid take the series in Texas fell short much like the Padres’ attempt to avoid a sweep at the hands of Philadelphia. No rest for either club as both have been booked up since Friday, April 19th, making this the eleventh straight day of action. Bullpens have been managed well during this big push; no significant availability issues face either unit. Trailing 7-day numbers point toward San Diego’s group being in slightly better form:
- CIN – 4.15 ERA, 5.03 FIP/3.82 xFIP (17.1 IP)
- SDP – 3.91 ERA, 3.57 FIP/3.10 xFIP (23.0 IP)
Factoring in full-season performance and preseason expectations, I hold a very small edge for San Diego’s relievers warranting a couple percent premium on the full game line compared to the first 5 inning line. That’s to be taken with a grain of salt. After all, bullpens are swingy and very situation-dependent. And the -110 pick ’em price points to this contest coming down to the late innings for a decision.
Cincy left-hander Sam Moll joins back-end hammers Fernando Cruz and Alexis Diaz as the prime relief targets to take the ball from Nick Lodolo. We’ll see if San Diego can attack the Reds’ relative weakness against righties with an excess of southpaw relievers in the ‘pen. Look for an interesting cat-and-mouse game between managers if this one stays close after the 5th inning.
N Lodolo (L) vs. M Waldron (R)
Reds lefty Nick Lodolo’s late start to the season after missing the majority of 2023 is marked by a strong 2.12 ERA, 2.04 FIP/3.36 xFIP over 3 starts. His 28.6% K and 5.7% BB rates are right on track with his short career marks too. 42.9% ground balls and 37.2% hard contact are paired up with Lodolo’s quality swing-and-miss stuff. Much of that is credited to a sinker/slider calling card has delivered quite nicely to date. Granted, Nick opened his season against the White Sox and Angels – a pair of clubs hitting below league-average with Chicago’s struggles being much more extreme than L.A.’s.
A less dominating 3-run, 3-walk outing against a nasty Philly lineup (5.40 ERA, 3.96 FIP/5.92 xFIP) is more in line than Lodolo’s first two starts when considering the Padres’ plus offense. San Diego’s production has lagged the last couple weeks compared to the full season though. Plus you cannot neglect their 20% shortfall against left-handed pitching as opposed to righties. That’s a significant departure from Philadelphia’s strong work against southpaws. Nick would greatly benefit from the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts continuing their quiet period. Otherwise, San Diego has a large amount of upside in this split once this trio rounds into form.
Is the Petco Park Door Open?
That’s not to say that Cincinnati has been raking right-handed pitching over the coals. By my estimations, the Reds have lagged expectations by 10% as a quality club against righties. Will Benson and Jeimer Candelario have failed to launch in the early goings, leaving Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer as the two key producers in the lineup. Jake Fraley’s scorching hot start has hit a bit of a lull lately after battling an illness. To be frank, the Reds offense can generally be characterized by bat-shit crazy Elly stuff or nothing. It’s a tall task expecting one player to be the catalyst for the entire lineup. Don’t expect this to persist over the long haul.
Does this work in Padres starter Matt Waldron’s favor? Well, it certainly does not hurt. The second year MLB right-handed contact pitcher has done well enough to outperform expectation in 5 outings (3.96 ERA, 4.08 FIP/4.42 xFIP). Coincidence or not, 9 of Waldron’s 11 earned runs came in 2 home starts against the Cardinals and Blue Jays. Are the excess fly balls and 14% barrel rates in those home contests outliers or something for this desperate Cincinnati lineup to take advantage of in this situation?
I am out of sync with my Redlegs the last couple weeks, to be perfectly honest. When I zig, they zag. I make a small premium for the Padres in this contest yet have not bet it. Head games much like yesterday in Texas have kept me at bay although Nick Lodolo deserves a solid half-run edge over his counterpart. Simply put, the Reds need much more support from their lefty hitters. Tonight could be the night with a susceptible Matt Waldron on the mound, except I’ll be on the sidelines as a fan. BOL this week….
2024 Featured Handicap Results
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