It’s been a couple days but the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-28-2021 is back in action. Monday’s slate left me with more questions than answers, then a packed work schedule kept me from publishing a handicap on Tuesday. I left off this weekend with a timely push on the Royals total and got the cash with a rebooked Diamondbacks over in game two of their doubleheader with Atlanta. That seems like forever ago so let’s get this Wednesday rolling!
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox (-210)
Chicago’s disappointing 5-2 loss to Detroit last night was not the way that Tony La Russa wanted to kick off this homestead. Lucas Giolito took the loss after coughing up 3 runs in the 7th inning. Gio pitched well until it was too late, although the lack of run support ultimately did him in. The White Sox scored just 2 runs on 8 hits and 4 walks alongside 5 errors by the Tigers’ defense. So what’s with Chicago’s offense anyways?
First of all, this team has just 21 home runs, which is tied with Kansas City for the fifth-least in the majors. Compare that to 2020, when the White Sox hit the third-most long balls. Yet this team has scored more runs this season than 24 other clubs. They’re doing it the old fashioned way – kind of like their manager – by getting a ton of hits and manufacturing runs much like the Al Central-leading Royals. This offense leads the league in ground ball rate and has a top-five medium contact rate. Sounds less than spectacular, right? It may be contrary to the MLB’s ongoing trend of strike out or hit it out of the park but the approach has been effective nonetheless.
Detroit, on the other hand, relies a lot on home runs for their scoring. Like I noted in this weekend’s handicaps of the Royals/Tigers games, that sounds good until you realize that they’ve scored the third-least runs in the MLB. Yet that’s how they did most of their damage last night – plating 4 runs via 3 homers. Coming into Tuesday, the Tigers posted a league-worst 77 wRC+ by slashing just .208/.268/.361. But isolate their performance against left-handed pitching and the story sounds even even worse (42 wRC+, .182/.239/.259).
Late-Inning Success
The Tigers’ bullpen has been quite the liability this season, although I must recognize that it was much improved throughout their latest homestand with Pittsburgh and Kansas City. In fact, Detroit’s relievers have been just about 2 runs better in terms of FIP this past week as compared to the entire season. Jose Cisnero delivered a third straight strong outing last night before closer Gregory Soto sealed the deal. Those two have been stalwarts of late but should be out of the equation having worked two nights in a row.
Chicago finds themselves in a favorable position tonight with the back half of their bullpen rested and ready. Closer Liam Hendriks as well as Aaron Bummer, Garrett Crochet, and Evan Marshall haven’t pitched since the weekend. However, this group has not been nearly as sharp recently as they have been all season. Fortunately a healthy dose of rest between the off day on Monday and efficient bullpen deployment last night should leave them in a decent spot tonight.
C. Mize (R) vs. C. Rodon (L)
Unless Carlos Rodon is less than sharp, Detroit should struggle against the rejuvenated lefty. Rodon’s command issues in his last start at Cleveland produced 5 walks, though the cold weather may have been a big influence with that. Otherwise, the guy has given up just 5 hits over three starts this season. And when you add in the Tigers’ struggles against lefties this year, Carlos is poised to have a big night. But is this a surefire thing given how great Detroit was last year against southpaws? You have to pay a premium at -210 if you expect their continued struggles at the plate – especially at the hands of a guy who has been spectacular so far in 2021.
However, my biggest reservation with Rodon is being unsure whether his significant bump up in velocity is sustainable. We’re talking about nearly 2 mph greater across his fastball/slider/changeup arsenal. Plus he has benefitted from a .105 BABIP and 95.9% strand rate that will surely come back towards more sustainable levels. Will the backslide begin tonight against this maligned Detroit offense? I doubt it – then again, the price must be right in order to back another dominant outing from Carlos. There’s also a part of me still waiting for the Tigers to regain some of last season’s proficiency against left-handers (141wRC+, .321/.364/.523).
Growing Pains or Stepping Stone?
Emerging prospect Casey Mize has experienced the best of times and the worst of times already this year. His first two starts yielded just 1 run in 11 innings with a 2.81 FIP and 4.07 xFIP. Then he ran into the red-hot Athletics and a surging Royals team that smacked him for 11 runs in 9.2 innings. And tonight he gets a very interesting matchup against a lineup whose profile overlays with Mize’s – at least in the sense that this kid has produced a 55.2% ground ball rate and 53.7% medium contact rate in 2021.
So what happens when a pitcher faces a lineup with nearly the same tendencies? Expect plenty of contact by the White Sox, putting an emphasis on clustering base hits and capitalizing on what should be plenty of on-base opportunities. But the dependence on being a ground ball-hitting team can bite them, just like it did last night as they grounded into 4 double plays. However, five of Chicago’s regulars have OBPs greater than .350 – Mercedes (.461), Robert (.356), Moncada (.360), Anderson (.368), & Vaughn (.356). Although Andrew Vaughn has been riding the pine a fair amount lately, this core has carried this offense and can do damage when they get on the base paths.
My season-long expectations for Mize are respectable, considering where he’s at in his young career. Realistically, we’re talking a 5.00-ish FIP starter who has a good enough splitter to dance his way out of some jams. But the biggest caution with Casey right now has been a nasty combination of walks, hits, and home runs. Again, I don’t think the long ball will be his downfall tonight – though it could be death by 1,000 paper cuts when facing this good-hitting White Sox club.
WAGER: White Sox Team Total Over 4.5 -125 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: White Sox Team Total Over 5 +110 (1/2 unit)
The price to back the White Sox and Carlos Rodon is way too steep for my blood. Hell, even creating a -1 run line at a price around -155 is still too juiced for this scenario. At least in my skeptical eyes it is. Rodon is in peak form and the Tigers have been abysmal against lefties. Both of these aspects are 180-degree pivots from the shortened 2020 season and the cautious side of me certainly sees one or both snapping back towards a middle ground at some point.
That said, Chicago has distinct advantages at the plate and on the mound. So I’m on a mini-ladder of team total overs with the expectation that the Sox continue to rake despite a breeze blowing in this evening. The prices for these team totals improved overnight from when I bet them – likely due to the optics of Chicago laying an egg Tuesday night in defeat. Or maybe they moved on my square action. Regardless, expect only 8 innings from the White Sox offense if Rodon continues his business as usual. I find good value in playing Chicago for a 5+ run evening as they should generate plenty of base runners.
Around the Horn
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