Day jobs, man. After skipping the Tuesday edition, the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-27-2022 drops after an unfortunate loss Monday night with the Mets first 5 innings bet. Props to Miles Mikolas for going toe to toe with Max Scherzer and delivering a 0-0 tie after the 5th. That said, we roll on with a Solo Shot for this full Wednesday slate…BOL!
2022 Featured Handicap Results
HOUSTON ASTROS @ TEXAS RANGERS (+100)
C. Javier (R) vs. G. Otto (R)
Texas has a true under the radar starter in their rotation with big right-hander Glenn Otto. Last Friday’s 5.0-inning season debut at Oakland was a 2-hit, 1-run gem that earned the 26-year-old a win. Although he was hit fairly hard, very little materialized as Otto featured a curveball more prominently alongside his trusty fastball/slider combo. And I have to respect the six starts he made in the final month of the 2021 season – especially his rock solid 3.17 FIP/3.49 xFIP. Otto made two starts against Houston in his rookie season with a huge disparity in results. So I almost have to throw out the 7-run outing as an outlier. This ground ball pitcher gets plenty of strikeouts and doesn’t issue many free passes so the Astros will need to be disciplined at the plate to get ahead of him.
The versatile Cristian Javier makes his first start of the 2022 season after three long relief appearances. Two of these appearances have been of the 3+ inning variety and I look for him to stretch into the 4th inning before the bullpen takes over tonight. I have to throw out Javier’s 0 runs in 8.1 innings and pencil him right around a 4.00 FIP baseline. After all, Cristian established a profile as a high-strikeout guy who can get tripped up by the long ball – whether that’s as big of a consideration this season with MLB’s ball situation is up for debate. But it all comes down to his own effective fastball/slider combo that relies on a wicked sweeper to deliver a 12%+ swinging strike rate. Not that this Rangers team strikes out a whole lot though.
So Where’s the Edge?
The reality of tonight’s starting pitcher matchup is that both righties are quite decent. I put both Otto and Javier right around the 4.00 FIP mark with a slight deference to Cristian. But that alone is certainly not enough to lay odds behind the Astros. Without being fooled by last night’s offensive performance against subpar lefty Taylor Hearn, I yield to the handedness splits for these two teams. Both have scuffled with sub-80 wRC+ in the past week but the gap between Houston’s 97 wRC+ against right-handers and Texas’ 72 says a lot.
Even when I adjust for my preseason macro expectations, the Astros hold a firm double-digit offensive edge in this department. So you have actual 2022 data, my preseason expectations, and the blended figure all pointing in the same direction. Maybe Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez are breaking out of their slumps. Maybe it’s a mirage. And Glenn Otto could truly put Houston’s bats on ice this evening. You know me though – always about the percentages and odds. There may be plenty of room for both lineups to run yet this season but my eye is on the Astros in this spot.
I’m looking to cut out the bullpens in this one, though the full game wager is not a bad alternative if first 5 innings bets aren’t your thing. Plus Houston’s relief unit has been considerably more reliable this season to the tune of about 1.5 runs of FIP. If there is any small matter of concern with the Astros ‘pen it is the absence of Ryan Pressly and the trickle-down effects towards this group’s bulk arms. This is a minor concern, however, and if you are less confident in Javier vs. Otto I don’t blame you at all for stretching this out to a full game wager.
WAGER: Astros First 5 Innings -115
ALTERNATIVE: Astros -125
I started this position last night with a very nice half-unit placeholder at -105 with DraftKings. After ensuring that no major developments took place in last night’s game I came back in with -115 at BetRivers to complete my full-unit wager. I’ll grade this position at -115 for the sake of tracking my featured handicaps. If you are interested in this spot, be sure to shop it around since there are multiple books dealing around the -130 mark. That’s as high as I would go considering all of the above.
Heading for Home
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