Much like the Rangers’ bullpen meltdown Monday night, the “success” of our featured handicaps ran away and appears to be in hiding. That’s the risk of writing up about a third of my total action on the young season. For all of you who keep coming back, we appreciate you. I’m happy with the season overall but need to tighten up these features! We have a nice slate of afternoon games on deck so let’s fire off a quick solo shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-26-2023. BOL and enjoy the action!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
TEXAS RANGERS @ CINCINNATI REDS (TEX -110, 9)
I return to the scene of Monday night’s crime where my pesky Cincinnati Reds lit the Texas Rangers wager on fire with a nice comeback in the late innings. And that came one day after failing to get my first 5 innings wager on them home. Don’t get me wrong, Jose Leclerc did plenty of damage to enable the Reds to get to the pay window the other night. Then last night’s 6-run 8th inning topped Monday’s victory in terms of dramatics. The small ball gameplan can get you somewhere when the stars align.
Can the Reds feed off of their recent “clutchness”? Well, I can’t speak to that. I’m a terrible handicapper when it comes to gauging the importance of momentum or capitalizing on trends. After 24 games, however, a developing wrinkle is the broad discrepancy between Cincy’s home and road offensive numbers.
CIN Offense, Home vs. Away Splits
| G | Slash Line | BB% | K% | BABIP | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 14 | .251/.337/.392 | 10.0% | 24.3% | .319 | 90 |
| Away | 10 | .215/.293/.278 | 9.4% | 27.9% | .303 | 61 |
Great American Ball Park plays a role in these splits without a doubt. Cincinnati’s stadium generally adds 10% to offensive production notwithstanding weather adjustments – 60 and little wind today. This park factor still does not account for a 29% gap in park-adjusted production when compared to their work on the road. 24 games is not a lot in terms of weighing this information, but it does present additional upside in this situation. There is one thing for sure, and that’s the fact that Reds hitters are prone to striking out.
J Gray (R) vs. G Ashcraft (R)
This is where Jon Gray could lend a helping hand to a bottom five offense. Aside from his first start against Baltimore, Gray has not registered more than 4 strikeouts in two of his four starts – the other start was cut short due to taking a comebacker off of his elbow. Even if we discount this season and grade him as a 23-25% strikeout rate guy, there is alignment with the Reds susceptibility here. Alignment is good in the Reds’ case as compared to facing a strikeout specialist. Gray’s 3.72 ERA is masking an inflated 13.4% walk rate, 6.33 FIP/5.19 xFIP, and 5.47 SIERA. Plus his .255 BABIP is asking for regression, right?
My numbers put the Reds in the 3.7 – 5.0 runs range today, with the low end tied to them not batting in the 9th inning. Today’s contest could be a litmus test for whether I am completely out of sync with the Reds this season or not. After lighting my money on fire Sunday and Monday with wagers involving my boys, I’ll be soft and play them for a single unit compared to my typical two-unit positions. This may not be the best look on my betting card today but it is a handicap worth breaking down. If the Reds fail me again, they might find themselves in the penalty box and y’all can chastise me – it would be much deserved. BOL!
WAGER: Reds Team Total Over 4 -110 (1.1u)
Heading for Home
Be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com: your source for free handicapping insights into our daily baseball perspectives and season previews. Want our newest content delivered directly to you? Follow our Twitter feed or subscribe below for email alerts to stay in the loop. As always, BOL with your MLB wagers!
