My wife said I got lucky with that one. I beg to differ. The Rays rallied for Shane McClanahan and delivered a first 5 inning winner that kept our nice little winning streak rolling. After enough years of doing this, I know how important it is to stockpile some ammo for the long season ahead. With that, the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-25-2022 offers a Monday Solo Shot to get the week rolling. NOTE: Due to my work schedule the Breakdown will take Tuesday off and be back for the Wednesday slate.
2022 Featured Handicap Results
NEW YORK METS @ ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (+115)
M. Scherzer (R) vs. M. Mikolas (R)
Different teams, different starting pitchers – yet today’s featured handicap shares a lot in common with yesterday’s Rays-Red Sox game. In these situations where the starting pitcher gap is strong enough I try not to overthink the decision between a first 5 innings position versus the full game. This evening we have Mad Max Scherzer taking on a Cardinals offense that has been quite good in the early goings. But this offensive success hasn’t been evenly distributed in the young season. The Redbirds have shown a very strong bias against lefties (150 wRC+) – aside from getting shut out by Cincinnati southpaw Nick Lodolo Sunday afternoon – consistent with my expectation for a 20% productivity surplus over their split against right-handers.
The Mets bias, on the other hand, has been strong towards righties despite my season-long expectations for an even-keeled offense. After blending in current data with my offseason work the base numbers for these two lineups against RHP point to a 10% offensive differential toward the Mets. Granted, three of New York’s top producers with respect to this split have not had a day off in a while: Eduardo Escobar (157 wRC+ vs. RHP), Francisco Lindor (186), and Pete Alonso (116). A 3-5% adjustment to the Mets’ expectation reflects one or two of these players getting the day off. St. Louis should have both of their righty killers in the lineup today – Nolan Arenado (.675 SLG) and Tommy Edman (.485 OBP) – so no adjustment to the Cardinals’ numbers is necessary.
Team Offenses vs. RHP, Season to Date
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | .267 | .351 | .422 | 134 |
| STL | .229 | .312 | .326 | 94 |
With both teams’ defenses and bullpens contributing positively overall, this position comes down to the starting pitcher matchup. On the macro level, Max Scherzer is approximately 3/4-run better to FIP than 33-year-old Miles Mikolas. Mikolas is that no freebies, keep hitters off balance, put the ball in play kind of pitcher who has seen early success in 2022 with a 2.17 FIP/3.78 xFIP. The Mets will test his five-pitch arsenal that kept Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, and Miami at bay. I think we can all agree that this New York lineup poses a different challenge than those other teams.
Scherzer counters with a strikeout-heavy approach that has been uncharacteristically accompanied by a high walk rate. This leads to a 3.29 K/BB ratio that is Max’s lowest since 2011. But we’re talking about three starts and his form is improving after a dominant 7.0-IP win over the Giants, allowing 1 run on 1 hit with 10 strikeouts and 3 walks. The Cardinals are a very patient and disciplined hitting team so I will not be surprised if they squeeze a few walks out of him tonight as well. I’ll say it again: this all comes down to percentages and probabilities, so when you can stack a starting pitching edge with an offensive edge the question then becomes at what price?
WAGER: Mets First 5 Innings -1/2 +100
ALTERNATIVE: Mets First 5 Innings -150
This position is price sensitive given how both teams are division contenders and are fundamentally sound. -150 on the first 5 inning run line and even-money laying the hook is about as high as I would go given the Mets’ lineup uncertainty this morning. I’m avoiding the bullpens not because of usage – both have well-rested back end relievers available – but because there is very little edge between the two. Maximize the strengths are avoid as many weaknesses as possible. BOL this week and we’ll regroup Wednesday morning!
Heading for Home
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