JJ the Ice Man nearly squashed the Athletics 11-game win streak with my greedy money line/run line play. But Cole Irvin worked his magic to escape a couple jams posed by the Orioles and get us the money. That 3-1 win was crucial considering how one of my nemesis, Luke Jackson, tried his best to let the Diamondbacks take a lead over Atlanta. I recall writing a couple times in 2019 how the Braves’ reliever must know when my money is on them – because that’s when Luke turns into a “fill the bases up” reliever. So the Atlanta -1 run line bet pushes and we move on to the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-24-2021 with a little wind in my sails.
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (+100)
Your AL Central-leading Kansas City Royals look to gain another win in their divisional series against Detroit this afternoon. The surprising Royals have dropped just one series this season to the reigning AL Pennant winner Tampa Bay. KC has punched slightly above their weight class at the plate, but not to the point where massive regression awaits. Detroit, on the other hand, has dropped seven of their last eight after dominating Houston. They’ve scored just 17 runs in those 8 games while yielding 36 runs – a sign of what the Tigers’ offense truly is.
The Royals have done a fantastic job of manufacturing runs with 18 stolen bases and a mid-pack 9.0% walk rate. Though they may not boast the type of power that top-tier teams present, Kansas City is methodically converting runners into runs. Plus the Royals have been very good against southpaws, slashing .315/.413/.728 with 10 stolen bases. Most of this damage has come at the hands of three hitters who have an impressive sub-10% strikeout rate vs. lefties:
- Carlos Santana: .480/.682/.1.162, 1 SB
- Whit Merrifield: .448/..680/.1.128, 4 SB
- Nicky Lopez: .350/.500/.850, 2 SB
Will the Window Be Open Late?
The late-game situation also favors Kansas City. While I expected both bullpens to be below-average units this season, Detroit has severely underperformed my projections by about a whole run per 9 innings. Royals’ relievers have been a touch better in 2021 but have fallen back in line over the past two weeks. Their closer-by-committee approach leaves both Scott Barlow and Wade Davis available today, though both of them have not been as sharp lately. Plus middle reliever Tyler Zuber could get back out there for a high-leverage situation after squashing a Tigers rally last night with just 2 pitches. But you can almost guarantee that Detroit’s back end duo of Gregory Soto and Bryan Garcia will get the call in a close one, potentially making innings 5 through 7 pivotal in how this game shakes out.
B. Singer (R) vs. M. Boyd (L)
The Matthew Boyd renaissance has been highly impressive. After blanking the Indians on Opening Day, Boyd has worked into the 7th inning or later in three straight starts. He has curbed his walk rate and gave up just 1 home run this season in a valiant effort at Oakland last Sunday – after all, nobody has gotten by them the last couple weeks. And Boyd is doing it with a mid-30% ground ball rate. That could be a chink in Matthew’s armor though. His home run suppression and 42% fly ball rate rely on being fortunate to a degree – which his .250 BABIP and 4.86 xFIP can attest to.
But if you stack Boyd’s strengths up against 24-year-old Brady Singer, you may be challenged to make a case for one being substantially stronger than the other. I’ll go so far to say that today’s starters could be in line for a pair of 6 inning gems – leaving the fate of the game in the bullpens’ hands. Since the weather could turn to light rain, any early advantage could be paramount. What I particularly like about Brady is his 50%+ ground ball rate and solid 32.5% hard hit rate. He’s primarily a fastball/slider pitcher with a decent changeup that continues to be effective in low doses.
Anything short of stellar from Boyd could spell trouble. His fly ball rate just begs for someone like Santana or Merrifield to take advantage of. On the contrary, Singer will pretty much force a slumping Tigers lineup to grind out runs the hard way by stringing together timely hits in succession. While this is certainly possible, I give Brady the advantage in this duel based the lineups’ relative success in their splits and overall effectiveness. Boyd could very well stymie the Royals this afternoon though the percentages point to the better team from start to finish.
WAGER: Royals -110
This is another game where an early morning brainstorming session with Twitter handicapping colleagues PhillyPsPicks and MikeBarrera led to a stronger conviction. Even our guy TekMuNNee found some lucrative angles for the Royals against Matthew Boyd. Today’s contest should come down to the bullpens, so give me the better relief unit and better bats on a short -110 road favorite that is playing much better ball.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves (-195)
M. Bumgarner (L) vs. D. Smyly (L)
While I see some value in the scrappy Diamondbacks at +180 or better, there are too many factors stacked against them – MadBum on the hill, a recovering-as-they-go bullpen, and an Atlanta club that is starting to pick up the pace on offense. The huge discrepancy that nearly put me on the Arizona side is how these lineups have fared against left-handed pitching this season. Arizona has significantly outperformed the Braves in this area by about 100%, although I expect this short-term trend to eventually criss-cross throughout the season.
Tonight’s lefty showdown must have these two lineups licking their chops. It takes a big leap of faith to back Bumgarner right now, even if he dazzled the Nationals by allowing just 2 hits and 1 run over 5 innings to get his first win of the season. Both he and Drew Smyly have struggled out of the gates, although I expect the Braves’ southpaw to outperform his counterpart by a half run or so over the course of the season. MadBum issues walks at a rate around 1 per 2 innings alongside a career-high hard hit rate of 46.6%. Smyly appears to have curbed the walk issue that tormented him the past two seasons, but the Phillies and Nationals both smacked him around (61.3% hard hit rate). His last start suffered from too many fly balls, including a pair that left the yard.
Strike Early and Often
The going rate of over 5.5 runs for the Braves is very tempting against Bumgarner and the Arizona bullpen. However, it also relies on the Atlanta bats getting on track against lefties. If there is ever a spot to do so, this is it. But I am drawn more to Arizona’s hot bats and their recent success with these splits. The Diamondbacks are right behind the White Sox, slashing .384/.514/.898 with a 144 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching. They have been super patient at the plate, generating a 0.72 BB/K rate – although Smyly should mitigate this advantage by continuing to limit free passes.
I expect this Arizona club to gradually revert back to my lower expectations on offense, especially against lefties. In fact, I have assumed a factor closer to league average despite the fact that they jumped on two southpaws last week. They smacked former teammate Patrick Corbin for 10 runs on 3 homers after tagging Jesus Luzardo for 5 runs. Plus their offense has been rolling since their April 9th homestead against my Redlegs. In fact, Arizona scored 4+ runs in 11 of their last 13 games. This lineup will cool off soon, but I’m riding them against the suspect 31-year-old tonight. They realistically need just two of these four guys to continue raking against lefties to cross the 4 run threshold in Atlanta’s hitters’ park:
- Carson Kelly: 2.467 OPS, 1.000 ISO
- Eduardo Escobar: 1.297 OPS, .412 ISO
- David Peralta: .417/.500/.917
- Kole Calhoun: .300/.500/.800
WAGER: Diamondbacks Team Total Over 3.5 -115
NOTICE: Atlanta appears to be socked in with rain most of the day, so I will not be surprised if this bet gets refunded.
Around the Horn
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