Yesterday’s featured handicap between NL East leaders was as good as advertised with both Christopher Sanchez and Griffin Canning working out of early jams before the Mets broke it open late once again. Today’s feature pits a pair of aces in the third of a four-game set in San Francisco currently locked up at one game a piece. Will the dog be barking once again at Oracle Park? We dive right in with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-23-2025. Due to my morning schedule the rest of this week, we’ll catch you Monday for the next Breakdown. BOL, as always!
MILWAUKEE BREWERS @ SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (SFG -140, 7)
F Peralta (R) vs. L Webb (R)
In full disclosure, I was not able to watch much of Milwaukee’s 11-3 victory after crashing out on the early side last night. A loaded day before a couple evening game sweats will do that to an old dude. Before shut eye time I framed out today’s article with this Brewers/Giants matchup in mind because of how much I respect both of tonight’s starters. And the market clearly respects Logan Webb quite a bit more based on the price tag this morning. That said, the number has moved from -150 to -140 in the last couple hours.
Webb’s pursuit of a fifth straight 4+ WAR campaign is well within reach after five starts in the young season. Three of those outings have gone 6+ innings – a hallmark going all the way back to 2022. The 28-year-old’s combination of volume and low/mid-3.00s effectiveness has earned him the distinction of a “capital A” Ace. Logan’s 2.40 ERA and 1.63 FIP/1.92 xFIP to date is built on commanding his primary sinker/slider duo into a ton of ground balls. What is keeping his underlying numbers so stiflingly low is an uncharacteristic 32.8% strikeout rate with 11.5% whiffs.
A rusty Opening Day performance in Cincinnati and a tough one in the Bronx were not helped by 7 walks across those starts. Webb’s three other outings yielded 28 strikeouts with 0 walks. Needless to say, the Giants’ righty gave up only a pair of earned runs while avoiding free passes. If we only knew when a pitcher was going to have his best command, money would be much easier to come by. Let’s dig deeper.
Does the Brew Crew Have the Right Approach?
Milwaukee’s 9.6% walk rate and 0.46 BB/K ratio against right-handed pitching are both a tick above league average; nothing too extreme to note in this regard. Their lineup is on a general uptick with respect to their trailing 7-day and 14-day profiles, putting a greater emphasis on which version of Logan Webb shows up tonight. Jordan Hicks and Lou Trivino certainly helped the Brewers last night with 4 walks and a pair of home runs. A lockdown Webb is well worth laying -140 considering the Giants can fill out the final three innings with some assembly of Doval, Miller, Rogers, and Walker in a tight contest.
A more “giving” Webb leaves the door open for hotter hitters like Brice Turang, Christian Yelich, and Sal Frelick to take advantage. How likely is that though? Only seven of his 33 starts in 2024 involved 3+ walks; all but two of them took place on the road. Those two home starts with 3+ walks came against the Dodgers, for what that’s worth. The two outings this season in which he yielded walks came away from Oracle Park as well. Don’t worry, the books are fully aware. Caesars’ walks prop for Logan Webb is Under 1.5 at -166; Bovada’s price for the same is -180. Milwaukee has been a proactive lineup that goes after pitchers and puts the ball in play, especially of late. And that’s essentially what needs to be done with a commanding pitcher who thrives on ground ball contact. Execution is a different matter altogether.
Going Toe To Toe
Freddy Peralta may not be quite on Logan Webb’s level, though he can certainly hold his own. Soft contact and plenty of swing-and-miss make his world go round even if his typical depth of start falls about an inning short of Webb’s. This leaves more workload for Milwaukee’s shaky bullpen to absorb – especially if the Brewers find themselves alive in the bottom of the 9th. Similar to Webb, Peralta’s bigger walk outings typically come on the road. Of 2024’s seven starts with 3+ walks, five came away from American Family Field. This season, both such starts came on the road. Freddy’s walk prop is Over 2.5 +100 at Caesars and +110 at Bovada, by the way.
This is pertinent against a Giants lineup walking at a 12.3% clip over the past 7 days (3rd highest) and 11.4% against right-handers this season (3rd highest). San Francisco’s 23.0% strikeout rate versus righties is a consideration in favor of Peralta that likely contributes to a lot of pitches which should limit Freddy to 5-ish innings of work. One knock against him though is a .250 BABIP driving the 3.13 FIP/3.59 xFIP counterpunch to a superb 1.91 ERA across 28.1 innings.
So what’s the move? Damn good question. Logan Webb’s wide – but low – range of effectiveness is a major element that stretches my core range from -124 to -180. That’s way too vast to take a position on the side. The total at 7 is also spot on for my likings. All the talk about walks has me intrigued as a guy who typically does not dabble much in player props. Is -166 for Webb’s under way too juicy despite his home dominance? Is even money not enough to play Peralta for a 3+ walk affair? Those are the burning questions…
2025 Featured Handicap Results
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