The MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-20-2022 returns after a quick break due to my work schedule. Back-to-back long days at the office sandwiched a very disappointing loss with the manufactured -1 run line on the Rays. Shane McClanahan dazzled but, in my opinion, Monday night’s game ball went to Keegan Thompson for 3.2 innings of lockdown pitching against the sloppy Rays. Props to Cubbies bettors that night – your team wanted the W more. Let’s fire off a Solo Shot before I get out the door this morning…
2022 Featured Handicap Results
CINCINNATI REDS @ SAN DIEGO PADRES (-190)
V. Gutierrez (R) vs. M. Gore (L)
It’s time for my Cincinnati Reds to get their asses home. Their west coast trip has been anything but a vacation, having dropped six straight to the Dodgers and Padres by a margin of 36-10. Cincy scored 3 runs in game one of the road trip and then either 1 or 2 runs in the last five contests. Bounceback time, eh? I won’t be holding my breath on that, even against 23-year-old lefty MacKenzie Gore. Especially with his decent MLB debut against Atlanta (5.1 IP, 3H, 2 R, 1 HR). Whether we see more of his secondaries against the Reds this afternoon is the question, though it’s not necessarily a major consideration in this handicap.
Gore’s profile is one of a control pitcher who gets ground ball contact and plenty of whiffs. And this Reds lineup has suffered the third highest strikeout rate in the majors (27.6%). Plus Cincy strikes out at a 26.5% clip against southpaws with an ugly 56 wRC+. Yet they field some bright spots in this aspect – Tyler Stephenson, Brandon Drury, Kyle Farmer, and Tommy Pham have all had decent success with this split in the early goings of the season. I’ve just started to integrate current year data into my daily workflow as the minority portion of a 90/10 split. My outlook for Cincinnati already had their split against left-handed pitching about 20% below their production against righties. They’ve arguably started well below that expectation so I’ve penciled them in this afternoon around 75 wRC+ against Gore. That helps keep the young lefty in the mid-to-upper 4.00 FIP range.
The Other Side of the Coin
San Diego’s early production has been generally on track with expectations without Fernando Tatis, Jr. Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, and Jurickson Profar have carried the Padres lineup for the most part in their first 13 games. But isolate their work against right-handed pitching and the numbers paint a different picture. Machado has been 90% weaker against lefties, as Hosmer and Profar fall about 25% lighter with this split. Plus San Diego has struck out a whopping 25.6% against right-handers.
Here’s where Cincinnati’s Vladimir Gutierrez comes into the picture. I can’t say that the 26-year-old has been a diamond in the rough for the Reds’ thin rotation since last season’s MLB debut. His start to the 2022 campaign has not been unlike 2021’s, especially in terms of yielding 5 walks across the first two games of each season. That’s the black mark on his profile and last year’s 1.91 K/BB ratio tells you what you need to know about Vladimir. Will he benefit from a higher-strikeout lineup like the Padres’ today? Maybe a touch, though I still have to grade him as a mid-5.00 FIP pitcher who should find himself working into the 5th inning.
Both teams have their back end relief arms on standby this afternoon. San Diego’s group has performed around their mid-pack expectation, while Cincinnati’s has lagged. Part of the Reds’ lack of success in late innings has more to do with their anemic offense than inept relief pitchers, as reflected by this unit not having registered a decision since last Thursday. So late inning runs are a consideration to the total. It should be a beautiful day at Petco Park: warm in the 60s with a steady breeze from left to right, possibly out towards right field. I can’t sleep on lefties like Joey Votto and Eric Hosmer gaining a benefit from this situation, but nothing too earth shattering to keep me away from the under on getaway day.
WAGER: [0.5u] Under 8.5 -110
I make this total a shade under 8 considering all of the above. My ticket was punched early Wednesday evening at nicer total of 9, though 8.5 is still good without overpaying. Since that is what’s widely available, I’ll grade my half-unit position for this featured handicap at 8.5. Plus when I shared this with our crew last night they could only get the 8.5. Anything can happen with young starting pitchers like these two but I’ll take my chances with the under as the Reds try to get out of town with a win.
Heading for Home
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