Despite the best-laid plans, Washington swung for the fences and kept falling short Sunday afternoon. That matchup against a lefty who is prone to getting knocked around was juicy but the results did not manifest. I’ll be completely honest and say that was a very disappointing outcome. Realistically, though, not everything that looks rock solid comes to fruition – it’s all numbers, and sometimes the dice come up snake eyes. Down a touch over 2.5 units on the young season is not where I want to be to achieve my annual goal to gain 1 unit per week across the entire season though. But teams are starting to show their true colors and hopefully that leads to better reads. So let’s jump into the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-20-2021.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals (-110)
I’m going to need someone in my inner circle to take control of my betting accounts if the Cardinals let me down yet again. This is a club that I am mildly optimistic about on the season – optimistic in the sense that they should stand out in the NL Central. When it comes to competing with stiffer competition, I need to triple- and quadruple-check my thought process. And yet here we are again backing the Redbirds. My BetCrushers partner Yanni and I talked over a couple plays yesterday afternoon and locked in this position before the Cards put a beatdown on the Nationals. And our first thought during last night’s game was “uh oh, they didn’t leave anything for Tuesday.”
Does This Team Know What Momentum Is?
Monday’s offensive outburst is eerily similar to their last two series in which they blew up for 14 runs against Washington and 9 runs against Philly in between games where their bats were silent. There is one reassuring aspect going for St. Louis though – they have been deadly against lefties so far this season. St. Louis’ 153 wRC+ versus southpaws sits eerily atop the majors despite having just over 100 plate appearances. The problem with this big number is that they’ve relied on the trifecta of Yadier Molina, Dylan Carlson, and Nolan Arenado to torch opponents. In fact, this trio has a .250+ ISO and .850+ OPS against left-handed pitching. And my guess is Molina will have the day off tonight after catching five games in a row. So my expectations for this lineup against a lefty is more are in the 10-20% above average range.
So what about that horrendous trend of boom, then fall on your face? Maybe it’s a thing, though I am less inclined to call this a full-on trend. The faint signs of life from this offense are growing louder as Paul DeJong looks to be finally finding his footing. The Cardinals’ shortstop had a 7-game hitless streak early on, which pushed him further down the lineup. Since then, he has hit in six straight games including a 2-for-4 effort last night that included a pair of homers. St. Louis will need to strike early in this contest though if they want to keep their bats hot. Washington’s bullpen has improved quite a bit from 2020 and has their back end of Hudson-Rainey-Hand ready to intervene in a close game tonight.
A. Wainwright (R) vs. P. Corbin (L)
Look, the biggest reason why I’ve shied away from playing the St. Louis side is Adam Wainwright. Maybe him coughing up 4 runs last week against this same club and 6 runs in his season debut against the Reds has me gun shy. On the other hand, is Patrick Corbin truly as bad as he’s looked to date? 15 earned runs in 6.1 innings is on the high end of his profile, though we saw signs of this backslide as he yielded multiple runs in 8 straight starts to end the 2020 season. Corbin’s hard hit rate jumped to 44.2% last year and sits at 52.0% in 2021. Plus he has relied more on his fastball – a pitch that guys like DeJong, Carlson, and Edman have thrived on. If he cannot regain his control and keep the ball on the ground, the Cardinals could cross the 4-run threshold before Patrick exits.
WAGER: Cardinals Team Total Over 4 -110
There have been too many days this season where I’ve been a step behind on some of these teams, including the Redbirds. And this could be another such instance. But again, the matchup is right and I have to take this decent price with 4 runs sparing a refund. I’m a buyer of this Cardinals team, but DeJong and Carlson need to stay grooved to support Arenado tonight and get us paid. The price on this line moved to -125 overnight but is still playable as long as it is 4 runs – assuming St. Louis left some in the tank for Patrick Corbin. Otherwise, somebody has to pull the plug on me backing this team for the foreseeable future.
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies (-154)
L. Webb (R) vs. Z. Wheeler (R)
The MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-20-2021 is going wide for just the second time this season. This is the second of four positions on today’s card – one that takes a nondescript offense against a pitcher in his best form of his career right now. But when it comes to Zack Wheeler, I’m looking for a bit of regression from his excellent 2.59 FIP/3.32 xFIP start to the 2021 campaign. Credit is due to Zack’s improved slider that has been very effective this season. That pitch could be trouble for this Giants lineup if it is on point tonight – Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Crawford, and Donovan Solano all have struggled against effective sliders.
Aside from blowing up St. Louis’ Carlos Martinez on Friday, the Philadelphia offense has been far from explosive in recent days. They are set to face 24-year-old Logan Webb, who should be good to go after suffering side effects from the COVID vaccine this weekend. Webb is a ground ball pitcher with a nice fastball-slider-changeup mix that has generated a 20%+ strikeout rate and has generally avoided excessive hard contact. However, his moneymaker pitch – the slider – has to be on point, otherwise he can get in trouble if he habitually walks batters.
Backing Webb is somewhat speculative with Harper, Realmuto, Segura, and Gregorius all hitting .280+ in the last 7 days. Didi is expected back in the lineup today after sitting Monday out with a swollen elbow, though his absence tonight would truly help the cause. But San Francisco is a scrappy team that has played well in close games and has won four of their last six, all of which were decided by 3 runs or less. They are certainly a live dog if Wheeler falls back into being a 4 FIP pitcher. If he is rock solid, forget about it.
WAGER: Giants First 5 Innings +125 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: Giants +135 (1/2 unit)
San Francisco has a pair of quality back end relievers available in Caleb Baragar and closer Tyler Rogers. Questions for the 6th or 7th inning are likely to blame for the higher payoff for the full-game price, though the Giants’ bullpen has generally held up well this season. Philadelphia also has its closer Hector Neris and a hot Connor Brogdon ready to go after a day of rest. However, the Phillies used their relievers heavily last night and are without Archie Bradley and Jose Alvarado. This dog is live yet again, though the starting pitchers have a ton to say about where this game goes.
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians (+100)
C. Rodon (L) vs. Z. Plesac (R)
Chicago absolutely got their asses handed to them yesterday morning as part of Boston’s annual Patriot Day festivities. Lucas Giolito served up batting practice from the get-go, not fooling anyone in his 50-pitch opening frame. Is there any value in being humbled like that? It’s hard to tell, so I will stick to the facts. Chicago’s offense has been about 20% more productive that Cleveland’s to date. However their lefty-righty splits allude to more parity this evening. Eddie Rosario and Jose Ramirez have found a nice groove in recent days and could spoil another big outing for Carlos Rodon. We will see if Rodon furthers Rosario’s uncharacteristic slump against lefties this season (.200 AVG, 25.9% K).
Although we just saw Carlos Rodon pitch a no-hitter last Wednesday against this same Indians club, I have to temper expectations for the 28-year-old veteran. In a vacuum, he’s a 4 FIP guy squaring off against the same mid-4.00s FIP pitcher as last week. So take Rodon’s no-hitter and Plesac’s 6-run affair out of the equation. It’s not going down like that again. Zach has been hit-or-miss against this White Sox team in his short career, though it was “miss” to end the 2020 season and to start this one. Chicago has mustered 10 runs in the last 7.1 innings against Plesac, who has lost velocity with his fastball and changeup. And that changeup must be on today, otherwise guys like Yermin Mercedes and Adam Eaton should continue to pound that pitch.
Leave the Bullpen Out of It
This Chicago bullpen is more fatigued than Cleveland’s after Hendriks and Foster worked quite a bit on Sunday. However, they milked a pair of middle relievers in Burdi and Ruiz to cover 5 innings in yesterday’s blowout. The Tribe get the benefit of an off-day after needing only closer Emmanuel Clase for mop up duties against the Reds on Sunday. Don’t get me wrong – I have plenty of respect for what this White Sox bullpen has evolved into, but the Indians have the edge once the starters say adios. Plus Chicago has the apparent advantage in the starting pitching matchup so I would prefer to isolate the White Sox lineup against Plesac while riding Rodon’s arm.
WAGER: White Sox First 5 Innings -114
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox (-110)
H. Ryu (L) vs. E. Rodriguez (L)
While on the topic of getting humbled, let’s talk bout the Blue Jays. Toronto’s young guns suffered a setback by dropping three of four to Kansas City this weekend. Now they get the pleasure of facing Boston’s fired up bats for a quick two-game series. And yes, here I go with the Morning Breakdown fading one of the hottest offenses in the majors. The Red Sox came into yesterday’s blowout win over a sleepy Lucas Giolito slashing .295/.366/.455 in the prior week.
Hyun Jin Ryu absolutely must keep his ground ball magic working to be successful today. His increased reliance on his cutter and changeup is very important against a Red Sox lineup that has feasted on fastballs. Verdugo, Martinez, Bogaerts, and Hernandez have all been crushing fastballs but are less successful against these secondary pitches. Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez is no slouch either, posting back-to-back 5-inning outings with just 1 walk and 9 hits. Although I give a modest edge to Ryu over Rodriguez, the lefty splits help to level the playing field between these offenses. But even that is a bit deceptive considering that Devers, Renfroe, and Bogaerts have not been stymied by southpaws. If Ryu is off in the slightest, everything goes out the window. My preference is to avoid the bullpens in this one, as Boston’s relief unit has been very sharp – especially in recent days.
WAGER: Blue Jays First 5 Innings +110
Around the Horn
Thanks for reading the BetCrushers’ MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-20-2021. Be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com for free handicapping articles containing insights into our daily plays. It’s also home to our season previews and futures portfolio. Need a reminder? Follow our Twitter feed or subscribe below for email alerts. Stay connected and BOL!
