No harm, no foul with Monday’s position on the Phillies in Chicago. Guess I should have seen that coming with nasty weather blowing through the Great Lakes this week. After a Tuesday with no action – my first dry day of the season – the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-19-2023 returns with a ho-hum solo shot in the Motor City. BOL!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS @ DETROIT TIGERS (CLE -140, 8.5)
Spring’s false start in the Great Lakes region subtly reminded us what AL Central baseball is all about. 8 runs on 31 hits across yesterday’s doubleheader between the Guardians and Tigers is case in point. We’re almost three weeks into the season and neither lineup has yet to fully awaken, although most of us would argue that the ceiling for both is relatively low compared to 20+ other MLB clubs. Bottom five slugging and bottom third overall offensive effectiveness paints that picture quite nicely.
But three weeks’ performance is not necessarily where I have these teams’ baselines. In fact, both are generally around 10% below my big-picture expectation. Will this “upside” show up on this chilly afternoon in Detroit? That’s always a possibility, especially with a Guardians team that is really underperforming against right-handed pitching. With the exception of Josh Bell, Cleveland’s hitters are in a rut. Detroit, on the other hand, is getting a little surge from the likes of Nick Maton, Javier Baez, and Kerry Carpenter. A key point in this contest are Maton and Carpenter as lefty hitters facing a right-hander who has struggled mightily against southpaws to date.
C Quantrill (R) vs. S Turnbull (R)
Mother Nature has a little something to say about keeping an offensive explosion in check. Are these starting pitchers going to comply? Cal Quantrill’s challenges have led to three starts with 3+ runs in each. Sure, two of those starts came against Seattle, which has outhit Detroit by 20%+. He’s not fooling anyone with the cutter or changeup, which has devalued the effectiveness of his sinker. Barring disaster, however, Quantrill has enough experience under his belt to get through the 5th inning before handing the ball over to a capable bullpen.
Spencer Turnbull’s disastrous start to his comeback season may have some signs of life after a very effective outing in Toronto. The 30-year-old showed us what his broad arsenal is made of back in 2019-2020 before being shelved with Tommy John surgery in early 2021. Even in those promising early seasons, Turnbull had to work around 40%+ hard contact by virtue of being an effective ground ball contact pitcher. It’s now a matter of whether his legs are underneath him and the .409 BABIP in the early goings subsides. The lack of effectiveness across his entire repertoire does not lead to much optimism unless you’re willing to buy into incremental improvement with each start along the way.
Most Hands On Deck
Both bullpens are in decent shape after yesterday’s doubleheader. Aside from James Karinchak, Eli Morgan, and long man Xzavion Curry, the Guardians’ bullpen is in position for 3+ innings of work. This group is performing around expectation with a 3.99 FIP and 3.93 xFIP. On the other hand, the Detroit bullpen’s loftier 5.34 FIP/4.52 xFIP is by no means pretty. However, it is right in line with my numbers as a bottom five group. Eduardo Rodriguez’ 8-inning start in game two helped the cause by keeping most of the Tigers relief unit on the bench. Plus Detroit did not play on Sunday or Monday. So there’s a small ray of hope for this maligned bullpen in the late innings.
So with two bullpens in about as good of shape as they could be from a personnel standpoint, the question comes down to the starters aligning with a low-scoring environment. Spencer Turnbull has a small edge over Cal Quantrill even though both are sitting on 5.00+ xFIPs and SIERAs. Those are fat numbers that lineups should feast on. Are these the hitters in prime position to do so? Is the weather enough of a help to keep this total under 8.5? Maybe I’m giving these starters too much credit by grading them better than what they’ve showed us to date. But with my numbers honing in on the 7.1-7.5 range this afternoon, the hook got my action.
WAGER: Under 8.5 -105 (2.1u)
Heading for Home
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