Saturday’s trio of one-run results left me with a -1.25-unit giveback day – a finish that was much better than I expected after a fast and furious start to the 2022 season. Tampa gave us a run for the +120 money with bases loaded in the 9th though my manufactured -1 run line behind the Mets was far from live. St. Louis saved the night and earned me a quick break from writing on Easter Sunday. Monday’s is a short and wet slate so we’ll pick up the action with a Solo Shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-18-2022. Weather permitting, of course.
2022 Featured Handicap Results
TAMPA BAY RAYS @ CHICAGO CUBS
S. McClanahan (L) vs. K. Hendricks (R)
The old mantra “styles make fights” plays out in tonight’s McClanahan-Hendricks showdown. And when it comes to the styles of these starting pitchers, we’re talking about two completely different approaches. For starters, hard-throwing Shane McClanahan is 7 years younger than the scrappy, contact-pitching Kyle Hendricks. The veteran can get away with being a put it in play and get soft contact guy with a very good defense in support. It will be interesting to see whether Hendricks’ early success striking out batters (11 Ks in 9.0 IP) meets the reality of him not sniffing that rate over a full season since 2016. Add to the fact that this Rays team has struck out quite a bit early in the season.
Shane McClanahan’s 15 Ks in 9.0 IP so far is also above expectation. Key difference is the young flamethrower actually belongs in the high-20% strikeout range. But he could have his hands full if this Cubs offense truly is as disciplined as they’ve been to date. In the big-picture outlook, McClanahan’s high-strikeout with ground ball approach – also with a very good defense behind him – makes him a full point of FIP better than Hendricks. The key caveat with that statement being Shane’s control in his first two starts – something that should get worked out before long. His fastball is live and the curve helps get a ton of swings and misses. This should be a significant edge with sub-40 temps and a strong crosswind from left to right; weather that doesn’t reward putting balls in the air.
The Rocky Mountain Hangover
So there’s a little thing that a few of us joked about a few years back – then we studied it and realized just how profitable it had been. That’s the Rocky Mountain Hangover. The Cubs just left Denver after splitting a four-game series with the Rockies and now they fall into this tricky scenario. Don’t get me wrong, we never quantified the effects but we try to play it as much as possible. However, there are numbers to look at when it comes to this Chicago lineup that has outslugged the Rays by .066 this season.
CHC Offense, 2022
| G | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | K% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before COL | 5 | .231 | .337 | .372 | 104 | 25.0% | |
| COL Series | 4 | .336 | .395 | .524 | 156 | 13.5% |
I don’t factor current-season data into my workflow quite yet, so this just tells me is to keep trusting my preseason work and maintain Tampa’s 10% offensive edge in this matchup. Though the Rays being in a slump of their own until yesterday does not help their cause. Another red flag could slice this edge in half: batter availability. Randy Arozarena finally got things going with a three-hit day yesterday but he, Brandon Lowe, and Wander Franco have all been marathon players this season. Of those three standout players, only Arozarena has had a day off since the Rays started the season on the 8th. If two of these three are not in this afternoon’s lineup Tampa Bay’s offensive edge is essentially reduced to zero.
Another aspect that lends itself towards the Rays side is a late-game edge via bullpens. As opposed to the Cubs’, Tampa’s is on the right side of average with both generally outperforming to date. Plus the better relief unit is in a better rest situation. It’s pretty ironic that Sunday’s bullpen day ended up being one where the entire back half got an important rest. In their Sunday series finale the Cubs set themselves up nicely with their desired Givens-Wick-Robertson finish. Wick may or may not be available after two straight 15+ pitch outings. Regardless, give Tampa a 1/2-run advantage to FIP over the final 3-4 innings.
WAGER: [0.5u] Rays -140 *McClanahan*
WAGER: [0.5u] Rays -1.5 (+128)
The Rocky Mountain Hangover is a thing. It may not affect my base numbers for this game but it does galvanize my position. Listing Shane McClanahan on the 1/2-unit full game wager helps mitigate some risk with weather conditions that could lead to him getting scratched. Since I could not decide whether to play this straight up or to be aggressive with the -1.5 run line, I manufactured a -1 run line to effectively lay -120 for a +114 return. This approach is fine with me for a Monday Solo Shot unless Tampa Bay’s big three hitters are all missing from the lineup. Otherwise, BOL this new week!
Heading for Home
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