A run in the 9th sinks the Colorado under while the Mets and Marlins fuel a winning day – one that made up for Thursday’s loss and adds more ammo to the bankroll. But that could be all for not as I load ’em up with a three-play Saturday in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-16-2022. BOL and enjoy the Easter weekend!
2022 Featured Handicap Results
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS @ MILWAUKEE BREWERS (-120)
S. Matz (L) vs. A. Houser (R)
Game three of this initial series between NL Central contenders comes on the heels of each club having earning a lopsided victory in games one and two. Along the same lines, both of today’s starters were unceremoniously greeted in their first starts of the seasons. Steven Matz was shelled for 7 runs in 3.0 IP against Pittsburgh while Adrian Houser let a pair of runs cross the plate in 3.2 IP against Baltimore. Now the markets have waived the white flag to a degree by pricing the home team in the -115 to -120 range. As far as the world sees it, these are two evenly-matched clubs playing in Milwaukee’s house with a couple starting pitchers that looked quite iffy to begin their seasons.
Pay No Attention
My position on this game pays no respect to how poorly Steven Matz pitched in his first start. His profile as a ground ball pitcher with good command did not manifest in his opener. I’m low on Milwaukee’s offense to begin with, especially as they lose a couple % in their splits against lefties. St. Louis’ lineup against right-handed pitchers does not inspire a ton of confidence either, though I have them about 4% more productive than Milwaukee’s against a southpaw like Matz. And that calculated advantage has nothing to do with the Cardinals’ 50%+ better offense to date in 2022.
Pairing today’s starters leads to slightly less than a 1/2-point FIP edge with Matz over Houser. Adrian has made his mark since joining the rotation in 2019 with a super heavy sinker leading to 50%+ ground ball rates in each of the past three seasons. However, the 29-year-old’s walk rate has crept higher while strikeout and swing-and-miss rates dipped in 2021. Plus last season’s .259 BABIP leads into my mid-4.00 FIP overview for Houser even though both teams’ defenses are well suited for these ground ball-centered starters.
Playing the Percentages
The meat of these two bullpens are rested and ready, so I hold Milwaukee’s edge in this area around a 1/2-point of FIP. Devin Williams, Brad Boxberger, and Josh Hader worked to perfection on Sunday, Tuesday, and Wednesday but have sat since then. Likewise, the St. Louis pen has been largely unused other than bulk work from Drew VerHagen and Andre Pallante in the Thursday and Friday games, respectively. Leaving the bullpens out of it and playing the first 5 inning approach earns me about 5.5% on the Cardinals side versus full game. With prices being generally equal in these two markets, I’ll play the percentages and leave the bullpens out of it.
WAGER: Cardinals First 5 Innings +105
TAMPA BAY RAYS @ CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-140)
C. Kluber (R) vs. M. Kopesch (R)
The Rays are a team that I seem to rarely get involved in – both in the futures markets and with daily handicapping. Today they square up 36-year-old grizzled veteran Corey Kluber against the emerging 25-year-old Michael Kopesch. Considering that Kluber has had very little MLB action since 2018, both starters present significant unknowns coming into today’s cold and breezy game on the south side. As I mentioned in the leadoff, I don’t take a ton away from early season starts but was generally reassured that Corey Kluber still has some swing-and-miss in him. Even if that early look came against the Orioles. The other side of the coin is a high walk potential that plays into the hands of a very good hitting White Sox team.
Michael Kopesch has an overpowering fastball and nasty slider combination that can punish even the best lineups. The kid only has 87.2 MLB innings under his belt so the unknowns in today’s game extend beyond what Corey Kluber can still bring to the table. I assess about a 1/3-run edge to Kopesch in this matchup even though it may shake out closer to neutral at this point in the season. Both bullpens have been good as expected, though availability could be more of an issue for Chicago given how their high-leverage corps was tapped on Tuesday, Wednesday, and yesterday. Tampa should have plenty of good middle relief ready to roll alongside key back end pieces JP Feyereisen and Andrew Kittredge. That washes out some of the White Sox’ late game pitching edge though this unit is still one of the strongest in the majors.
Cracking the Code
You’d be hard pressed to accurately compare both offenses’ production so far this season. Tampa’s work in the dome being about 9% better than Chicago’s action in the cooler midwest temperatures doesn’t quite translate. 2022 results aside, I have these lineups essentially on par with one another given today’s context. Brandon Lowe, Wander Franco, and Ji-Man Choi have fueled the Rays for the most part, though their availability after grinding day after day could be in jeopardy this afternoon. On the other hand, the ChiSox’ Eloy Jimenez and Josh Harrison are both reportedly good to go. The price movement from an opener of Tampa +105 up to +120 overnight does not inspire confidence in my handicap, but I’ll take what the market gives and play the plus-money dog here.
WAGER: Rays +120
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS @ NEW YORK METS (-160)
Z. Gallen (R) vs. C. Carrasco (R)
Little has changed from yesterday regarding these teams’ offensive, defensive, and bullpen profiles are little changed. Bullpen availability is unencumbered for both squads after light usage yesterday and Thursday off. One significant change from Friday, however, is the 45-cent price reduction. And that is all about starting pitching with a COVID assist that has sidelined Brandon Nimmo and Mark Canha again today. Where Bassitt had a 1-run edge over Davies, that differential is shaved down to 1/4 run or less with Zac Gallen and Carlos Carrasco.
Both righties have deep arsenals although we’re still waiting for Gallen’s secondaries to emerge. The fastball is sharp and a strong ground ball rate leads the way despite key indicators going against him last season. Gallen’s hard hit rate crossed into the danger zone while his swing-and-miss stuff tailed off. I have to assume that another year of development will do Zac well and result in a low-4.00 FIP profile. Temps around 60 and a steady wind out to left lead to the slightest of offensive biases. Cookie Carrasco could struggle with walks and home runs as Arizona is not completely devoid of power. His deep pitch selection gets plenty of ground balls and whiffs that can be trouble for the D-backs’ hitters. Barring a disastrous start from Carrasco, the Mets hold an edge in all aspects this afternoon ranging from slim with starting pitching to 10%+ at the plate.
WAGER: [0.5u] Mets -160
WAGER: [0.5u] Mets -1.5 (+136)
The reduced price on the Mets creates a nice situation to back the significant edge that their lineup presents. Edges elsewhere in this matchup mean that Carrasco does not need to be as oppressive as Bassitt was yesterday, though Gallen gives his club a much better chance to win than Davies. You can shop for a -1 run line but I love to manufacture it with a half-and-half split that is more appropriate given than these specific starters. I’m essentially laying -130 for a chance to win +118 with a stronger Mets side. No complaints here.
Heading for Home
Be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com – your source for free handicapping insights into our daily baseball plays and season previews. Want us to deliver our newest content directly to you? Follow our Twitter feed or subscribe below for email alerts to stay in the loop. As always, BOL with your MLB wagers!
