Rain and travel washed out the Thursday Breakdown but Monday is clear and the slate is jam packed. The MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-15-2024 kicks off with the early Patriots’ Day tilt in Boston before heading to Milwaukee for a juicy matchup between NL playoff contenders. We’ll be back Wednesday morning for a mid-week handicap then NASCAR on Friday. BOL this week!
Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox (BOS -127, 9.5)
The sun will shine over Beantown for the Boston Marathon and the annual tradition that is early baseball on Patriots’ Day. After yesterday afternoon’s 9th inning meltdown nearly junked my Sox ticket, you have to wonder where manager Alex Cora goes in the late innings today. He and Justin Slaten put in a ton of work on the heels of Brayan Bello’s strong effort with Chris Martin unavailable due to injury. Likewise, Cleveland’s bullpen worked its tail off to blow a late lead then preserve an extra-innings win over the Yankees. And all that came after a Saturday double-header. Both relief units have options but are not in ideal scenarios for the early start time – even if they’ve been producing at a decent level so far this season.
Why is this a troubling aspect of the handicap? These lineups have been sneaky productive at times lately, especially from the left side of the plate. Even though Boston’s centerpiece Rafael Devers has sat out since Wednesday with a bum shoulder, the likes of Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, and Masataka Yoshida are holding their own. This production isn’t the epitome of consistency, however. At this point, I expect another 7-10% of headroom for the Sox’ lineup against right-handers as the season goes on.
The Guardians have not been overly spectacular at the plate either, although I’d argue that their expectations are less prolific than Boston’s. Switch-hitter Jose Ramirez is stuck in second gear (.246/.257/.435) without his usual 10%+ walk rate and strong on-base numbers. Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor, and Andres Gimenez are holding things down while Jose works out of his slump though. But the bottom half the Guardians’ lineup leaves a lot to be desired at this point.
X Curry (R) vs. K Crawford (R)
My number falls in no man’s land between the market prices on the side, which may have more to do with where I stand on the starting pitchers. Cleveland’s Xzavion Curry will make his 2024 MLB debut after cutting his teeth with 95.0 innings last season. The 25-year-old righty has been a more effective strikeout pitcher in Triple-A so far this year, much like his 2022 numbers. But when called upon in the majors, Curry channeled a middling 16.6% K rate. Plus he’s shown a ton of consistency going back to those 2022 Triple-A days as a mid-4.00s or worse pitcher. Xzavion’s 1.29 ERA in two minor league starts this season is coupled with a 4.96 FIP/4.74 xFIP that’s more in line with expectation. The opportunities should be there for the Boston hitters to take advantage of.
Kutter Crawford carries an advantage of nearly 1 run against his counterpart this morning. That number could be even larger if the 28-year-old picks up where he left off last Wednesday. The right-hander blanked the prolific Orioles lineup and has given up just a single run over three starts. Crawford’s .189 BABIP is unsustainable, especially if the 12.5% walk rate persists. The 4.08 xFIP is more indicative of this year’s outlook, though the 0.57 ERA and 2.68 FIP are the reality after 15.2 innings of work. Opponents have thrown plenty of lefty hitters at Kutter – to which he’s struck out 13 and is allowing a stingy .069 average against.
Up, Up, and Away?
The full game total sits at 9.5 or a 9 juiced to the over. Bookmaker offered a -113 tag on the over 9 that is a major consideration given the bullpen scenario for both squads. I do not have Curry making it past the 5th inning given his limited length in Spring Training and in Triple-A. That’s a stress point. Crawford makes a strong case for 5+ innings and could spare his relief unit some grief. It’s over 9 or pass for me on this one. My concern is playing the number when CRIS is dealing the one-off price – something I’ll have to contend with the next hour or so before making the call.
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers (SDP -130, 8.5)
If we want to talk about impressive work with the bats, look no further than the Milwaukee Brewers. Baltimore and familiar face Corbin Burnes halted the Crew’s 6-game streak of scoring 7+ runs in the O’s 6-4 victory. They’re admittedly way over expectation in many of my offensive benchmarks except for production against left-handed pitching. So I’d be foolish to expect another offensive outburst this evening, especially without Christian Yelich. Let’s put Milwaukee’s recent heater on ice for a second (last 7 days: .312/.370/.517)
San Diego has been impressive in its own rights, having taken the weekend series against the Dodgers on the back of two strong offensive performances. They’ve produced beyond my outlook to date as well, just not quite as extreme as Milwaukee. Hell, it’s hard to find a guy in the Padres lineup who is not producing. Their trailing seven-day .267/.328/.424 is equally as impressive given the quality of opponents with the Dodgers and Cubs. Peel away the lineups’ recent exuberance and I make San Diego a several percentage point leader over Milwaukee.
J Musgrove (R) vs. J Ross (R)
Joe Musgrove makes this matchup much more interesting than you’d anticipate. The veteran is getting plenty of swing-and-miss while falling just short of the 20% K rate plateau. Hitters on both sides of the plate are getting to Musgrove, even though his .418 BABIP will eventually come back down to a reasonable mark. But the 4.78 FIP/4.80 xFIP combo is not much relief from a 6.87 ERA. Joe desperately needs the Yelich-less Brew Crew to take their foot off the gas pedal tonight.
Opposing starter Joe Ross has skated by with an ugly 13.6% walk rate and unsustainable .250 BABIP. I have to make Ross about a half-run worse than Musgrove in the big-picture view of the two starters. Despite not missing many bats in his first two starts of the season, he’s kept the ball on the ground (57.1%) and hasn’t paid too dearly for an abundance of hard contact (46.4%). Both infield groups are up for the challenge, FWIW.
Both bullpens have been fine. Neither faces any significant availability issues other than Brewers’ left-hander Hoby Milner. The key for San Diego is piling on their deep southpaw relief group to attack Milwaukee’s weakness. Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui are the big stoppers after Musgrove gives way. Despite this key factor, there’s a bit too much value on the underdog even after devaluing their current form. Which lineup lets their team down tonight? Will Joe Musgrove channel his previous seasons’ sub-4.00 production level? We’ll get those answers soon enough. Until then, I’m backing Milwaukee as a short home dog.
WAGER: Brewers +108
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