I’ve cranked out three straight Ls in my featured handicaps. That’s pretty disappointing, especially with a couple wagers getting cancelled recently. But it’s Day 11 of the 2021 MLB season and I’ve been waiting for these days a long time. Now it’s time to roll with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-11-2021. Gotta hit the road early again this morning and the slate is juicy, so here’s the express version. However, due to an early-morning work conflict Monday morning, the next handicap will be published for the Tuesday, April 13th slate.
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians (-185)
When it comes to the MLB’s prolific offenses, neither of these teams comes to mind. However, the Cleveland Indians have begun to find some sort of a groove at the plate having scored at least 4 runs in each of the last three games. And they have punished the Tigers twice already this season – scoring 9 runs in Detroit on April 4th and then a whopping 11 runs yesterday. Cleveland’s 11-3 rout featured scoring early and often against top pitching prospect Tarik Skubal, while last Sunday’s blowout to finish the opening series came on the back of 8 runs scored against the Tigers’ bullpen. One particular thing to note is how these two big outings appear to skew Cleveland’s offensive metrics, especially against lefties like Skubal. But there’s no denying the fact that Jose Ramirez, Eddie Rosario, and Franmil Reyes are on a roll right now.
Detroit, on the other hand, has really struggled to consistently put up runs. They are lagging my modest expectations by about 10% – in part because of the infrequency in which the Tigers have faced left-handed pitching. This group made hay last season against southpaws and gets another crack against Logan Allen this afternoon. Although I regressed Detroit’s strong spits versus lefties significantly, this is an area that this club can still exploit. And to a certain extent, they did against a better pitcher JA Happ on April 6th. Happ made it through just 4 innings after yielding 1 run on 3 hits and 3 walks. The question here is whether the Tigers can convert more opportunities into runs this afternoon. After all, this lineup has several strong regression candidates – Candelario, Castro, and Jones – that have generally fulfilled this obligation so far this season.
In terms of bullpens, these units are as close to night and day as they come. Detroit’s group has blown the same number of save opportunities (2) as they have converted (2) while giving up a whopping 10 home runs in their 34.1 innings of work. Hell, this group coughed up 8 runs when these two clubs wrapped up the first series of the season. Their 6.05 FIP falls way short of Cleveland’s bullpen that has been solid to date with a 4.19 FIP. Plus the Indians relievers essentially got the day off yesterday with Aaron Civale working into the 8th inning. That should be enough to scare you away from supporting the Tigers in the late innings.
J. Urena (R) vs. L. Allen (L)
So if the Tigers are expected to capitalize against a lefty starter today, will Logan Allen comply? Allen has a nasty changeup that has allowed him to avoid a lot of hard contact in his short career. He’s not the type to blow your doors off but has struggled with control at times. In fact, the Tigers handed Logan his lone blemish last year on August 23rd. Detroit had 5 hits, 1 home run, and 3 runs against him in 4.2 innings. Again, I expect their splits to revert back to normalcy to a degree but this matchup still favors the Tigers.
If there is any neutralizer to the Tigers’ strength against Logan Allen, it is starting pitcher Jose Urena. This is his first season not with the Marlins and his Detroit debut against the Twins went terribly wrong. Urena yielded 6 runs on 4 hits, 4 walks, and 1 homer. He’s a contact pitcher who gets in big trouble when opponents are able to get the ball in the air. Is the Minnesota offense more of a threat than Cleveland’s? Absolutely. But the Tribe lineup should not be overlooked at this point – especially after yesterday’s massive outburst. Ironically, I have graded both of today’s starters as nearly on par.
WAGER: Tigers First 5 Innings (+135)
Outside of the major discrepancy between these two bullpens, I’ll argue that Cleveland is overvalued at this point – especially after Saturday’s offensive explosion against a rookie and Detroit’s terrible bullpen. But I cannot back the Tigers in a full-game position regardless of a +155 or greater price tag. So take the relievers out of play and let Allen and Urena face off. With that in mind, I will take a shot on Detroit still having an acumen against lefties like they did last summer against Logan. It’s ugly, but the numbers say it’s worth a shot and that’s what I’ve done.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (-120)
G. Marquez (R) vs. A. Desclafani (R)
The Giants are not scaring anyone offensively, especially after putting up just 7 runs against Colorado in the first two games of this series. And 6 of those 7 runs came in the 6th inning or later. I can easily see that trend of not scoring early in the game continuing this afternoon against German Marquez. Marquez is one of those arsenal pitchers who mixes up his stuff quite well, although there is not much speed deviation amongst his secondary pitches. That bit him in his last start against Arizona where a lone home run derailed what could have been a top-notch outing.
The main problem for the Rockies today is that Anthony DeSclafani is no slouch either. Disco had promise in the Cincinnati Reds rotation until the wheels completely fell off in his third start of 2020. While his 1-run season debut against the Padres is not indicative of his general mid-4.00s FIP caliber of pitching, it is a positive sign that DeSclafani is capable of reverting back to his respectable pre-2020 form. Plus he steps down in class against a Rockies offense that continues to struggle against righties. One notable exception to this so far this season has been the hot start from Ryan McMahon, who smashed a 2-run homer yesterday and had a 3-home run explosion against the Diamondbacks last week – at Coors Field, mind you.
Neither bullpen has been great this season, though San Francisco will likely need to dig a bit deeper into this group after working their preferred setup and closer progression yesterday. Moronta, Rogers, and McGee were all needed to lock down a close one. I don’t see much of an edge for either team when this game gets to the bullpens, though Colorado gets a slight nod based on availability. Could Brandon Crawford provide the pivotal late-game blow for the third game in a row? Perhaps, although I am rolling with the home team in what could shape up to be a pitcher’s duel. At least until the calls to the bullpens are made.
WAGER: Giants -120
San Diego Padres (-175) @ Texas Rangers
A. Morejon (L) vs. M. Foltynewicz (R)
Have the Padres lost their punch this season? They’ve been without their big gun Fernando Tatis, Jr. since defeating the Giants 3-1 on April 6th and have scored more than 4 runs in only three of nine games this season. Granted, yesterday was one of those days. They defeated Texas 7-4 behind 14 hits against Jordan Lyles and a Rangers’ bullpen that has struggled mightily to date. In fact, Texas relievers have yielded 40 hits and 7 home runs over 35.2 innings – enough to register a 5.47 FIP. The Padres’ bullpen has been much more efficient with a 3.17 FIP but has given up 5 homers of their own.
I think we can all agree that San Diego holds a late-game edge as well as an advantage at the plate. But the key difference-maker is the starting pitching matchup. Mike Foltynewicz was a great fade in his debut against Toronto with 2 homers in 4 innings. While I think that was on the high side of normal for this reclamation project, he is still ripe for this Padres team to pick off. And there is something to be said about leadoff man Trent Grisham being back in the lineup for this series. And don’t sleep on a guy like Jurickson Profar who is getting more playing time with Tatis out – he has hit safely in 6 of the last 7 games including a big 3-for-5 day yesterday.
Foltynewicz’ counterpart Adrian Morejon looks to right the ship after a rough 2-homer outing of his own against the Giants. Now I must state the general caveat that San Francisco generally hits lefties well – to the tune of about 30%-50% better than the Rangers. While command issues have been his nemesis in the past, Morejon does not issue a whole lot of walks (career 4.50 K/BB rate) even if he gets touched up by the long ball. This will be a tough matchup for the Rangers unless Adrian cannot find the strike zone. Plus the Padres have a strong bullpen advantage despite the fact that they were used heavily yesterday in relief. These two bullpens are operating at close to a 1.5-run differential, though that should be smaller today given San Diego’s usage last night. Regardless, I have no problem fading Folty and the Rangers offense against a lefty today.
WAGER: Padres Run Line -114
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox (-140)
M. Minor (L) vs. D. Cease (R)
Alright, folks, this is essentially a reboot from yesterday’s rain-postponed game in Chicago. You can catch the full handicap in the 4-10-2021 article, which breaks down the issues with Dylan Cease as well as the strength of this White Sox lineup against left-handed pitching. Cease could very well get smacked around, but this White Sox bullpen is rested after the day off and can intervene to get this key divisional win this afternoon. We’re running it back with a slightly better price and the same amount of confidence.
WAGER: White Sox -137 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: White Sox Run Line +142 (1/2 unit)
Around the Horn
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