New series kick off across the MLB including 8 interleague battles. We left off Saturday with a first 5 inning position in Miami that caught the inevitable push with two uninspiring offenses at work. A “mini opening day” starts in a few hours with several mid-afternoon games and a full evening. It’s a totals betting kind of day in our world, one of which is the featured handicap in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 3-31-2025. BOL!
TEXAS RANGERS @ CINCINNATI REDS (TEX -125, 9)
K Rocker (R) vs. B Singer (R)
The NL West-leading Texas Rangers head to Great American Ball Park to face my Cincinnati Reds for a three game set. This evening’s matchup features rookie Kumar Rocker against newly-acquired Brady Singer. The former Royal came to the Queen City in the Jonathan India trade to help stabilize a maturing rotation. Rocker persevered through injury concerns to land with the Rangers and make his MLB debut last September.
Both of today’s starters are heavy ground ball types without overwhelming strikeout attributes. Kumar Rocker earns a theoretical half-run edge over the veteran Brady Singer by virtue of stronger swing-and-miss stuff in part due to fastball velocity. However, the Texas starter is still relatively unproven considering his return from Tommy John surgery rehab last summer was effectively his first professional action. His Achilles’ heel this spring was the killer combination of walks and home runs. This can be especially troubling in the “Small Park”, except Mother Nature has mixed in cooler temps to go with a breeze out to right center this evening – conditions well below the park’s baseline.
As for Singer, the jury is out on his anticipate form for 2025. The moderate BABIP seasons of 2022 & 2024 are what Terry Francona and the Redlegs are looking for. 2021 & 2023, not so much. Regardless, Brady’s career 4.28 ERA, 3.97 FIP/3.83 xFIP are general targets for this season as the banner 2022 campaign appears to be an outlier to the good side. What may have been the most impressive part of the 28-year-old’s 2024 season was his concentration and focus. Singer struggled at times in the past when getting nickled and dimed as a contact pitcher. As Cosmo Kramer once said, “Poise counts!”
How the Lineups Stack Up
Cincinnati’s lineup has been fairly disciplined in the early goings of the 2025 season, which may help their cause against Rocker and the Texas bullpen. This group has not yet found its stride but the left-hand/switch-hitting contingent of Elly De La Cruz, Gavin Lux, and Jeimer Candelario sets up to be potent…at some point. Getting on base is a prerequisite to employing a dangerous run game, after all. San Francisco catcher Patrick Bailey kept the Reds from even attempting a stolen base this weekend. Will the Rangers fare as well against Cincy’s speed? Catcher Jonah Heim lost his sizzle behind the plate last season but the overall consensus points to a defensive rebound, citing both on- and off-field rationale. That said, Bailey is in a class above Heim when it comes to controlling runners.
We make the Rangers offense about 5-6% stronger on face value. Although it has not come up to full speed either. Third baseman Josh Jung was recently placed on the IL and super substitute Josh Smith is considered day-to-day after suffering a quad contusion in Saturday’s game. Potentially losing Smith’s key left-handed bat and falling back to Plan C, Ezequiel Duran, is worth monitoring when lineups are announced. Texas still has multiple tough bats to contend with though, including lefties Corey Seager and Joc Pederson who have yet to find their grooves.
WAGER: Under 9 -110
The weather in Cincinnati after the storms rolled through last night is a key component of our under position. This price is moving but still approachable depending on account access. Either offense waking up against a pair of contact pitchers is a major concern against the under. Another is bullpen composition. Cincinnati’s relief unit is sketchy to say the least, although Brady Singer can go deep and their high-leverage group should be fully available. The Rangers have a better unit overall but are likely without the Garcia-Martin-Jackson trio after a busy opening series. As much as we want the W, a late-innings snowball could put it in jeopardy.
2025 Featured Handicap Results
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