Baseball in April is a beautiful thing. Betting baseball in April can be like a crapshoot when you’re relying on projections and small data sets. May begins peak MLB handicapping season for me, so making it out of April right on the edge of the profit line (-1.16 units) is just fine.
April went out with a nice bang, scoring +2.5 units on Tuesday’s 3-1 card. The Tampa Bay/Kansas City game got washed out but the remaining 4 plays were profitable despite the aggressive run line approach taken on the Reds and Diamondbacks games. Reds lost outright so a little juice was saved there, and the D-backs managed to push a critical run through in the 8th for a +150 winner. Indians covered the run line with their bats and the Cardinals squeezed out a close win in DC.
I have to admit that I did not watch much baseball last night. I took the wife out for dinner and beers then gave myself a break from watching baseball. That was nice. Very nice. Especially when you wake up the next morning and things worked out just fine. Watching the games is important to help learn the teams’ compositions and managerial styles, but sweating the outcomes is another story. Separating the two is tough, yet very important to lasting a full 6 months.
After some aggressive moves yesterday, I’m laying off of a couple borderline plays on the Mariners and White Sox. Chicago has the upper hand but the price is steep and the run line payout doesn’t appeal to me given that it is the White Sox after all. Seattle can be clunky at home and the Cubs are putting together a little hot streak. So I will exhibit restraint and lay low on those. This leaves me with only 1 viable option…
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Texas Rangers
I didn’t say it was a great option, just a viable option. Ace Jameson Taillon tries to extend the Pirates’ winning streak to 2 after an 8-game skid. Despite major upside with this kid, he has been hit-or-miss in the young 2019 season. Taillon was knocked around by Arizona in his last start but has held opponents to 0 or 1 run in half of his outings. Pittsburgh’s anemic offense has managed to put up 6 runs in each of their last 2 games, which is essential to keep up with a powerful Texas lineup.
Shelby Miller is not the reason why I’m playing this matchup today. His 35.1% ground ball rate and 7.52 ERA/7.75 xFIP combination support the notion that he’s not a very good pitcher. He just happens to be taking the mound against one of the most futile offenses the majors. Miller is about guaranteed to give up 4 runs in 5 innings of work against a typical offense.
What I like about Texas here is that their dangerous offense can be dormant or it can explode for double-digits in any game against 90% of the pitchers out there. A slight bullpen edge goes to the Pirates, although both units got spread out last night with extra innings and a short outing from Lyles. The Texas relievers must rebound from terrible performances by Leclerc and Chavez that cost them a 3-0 lead. Despite Tuesday’s meltdown, I like the way the Rangers hold down the fort at home, going 6-2 in their last 8 at Globe Life Park. Plus-money on a scenario where anything could happen is fine with me.
