It should have been an omen when Steven Matz got lit up for 8 runs without getting an out versus the Phillies last night. That was the big matchup I liked best out of my 4 plays that went 1-3 for a -1.65 unit net. No momentum from Monday’s good evening so this week starts down -0.49 units. Not too hateful considering how terrible the pitchers that I got behind yesterday performed.
Flaherty for the Cardinals was disappointing, yet Reynaldo Lopez for the ChiSox shut down the Royals. Not that KC is an offensive powerhouse, but Reynaldo had been very willing to cough up runs until last night. The bright spot came on a +135 Blue Jays win that actually needed the tying runner to get gunned down at home to make the final out.
Today is the biggest card for me to date, punching 7 tickets. Better be lucky ones…
NY Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
It seems like I’ve been playing a lot of Mets game this season on one side or the other. Last night was a slam-dunk loss as the Phils teed off on Steven Matz. I’ve beat this matchup to death the last couple days and am now jumping sides in this series to Philadelphia. The lineups are both very good and the bullpens similar in composition. Perhaps the Phillies’ bats are clicking again, but as we all know, most of that depends on the quality of pitching an offense faces.
Cue Zach Wheeler, who has fared OK this season but is managing to put runners on base at a higher rate than average. This plays into a good hitting team’s plans nicely. Crafty veteran Jake Arrieta, on the other hand, has been doing very well at limiting runners and limiting damage. I’ll side with the home club this afternoon behind a pitcher who has been more effective lately.
WAGER: Phillies -115
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are dialed in and absolutely mashing against their NL Central rival, St. Louis. They’ve put up 18 runs in 2 games and show no signs of quitting. Corbin Burnes takes the mound, gunning for a sweep of the Cards this afternoon. Burnes has been roughed up for 16 runs in 14.1 innings, which the St. Louis hitters can take advantage of. He’s coughed up 3 home runs in each of his 3 starts – a streak he would certainly like to break.
Michael Wacha stumbled in his start against the Dodgers but was pitching well up to that game. This is an interesting point for him: he could shake off the game vs. LA or the Brewers offense could keep piling on. Since there’s a good chance Burnes gets knocked around this afternoon, I believe the dog money is a worthy shot considering that Wacha has a chance of stabilizing. Worst case, this one turns into a slugfest and I’m getting plus-money for a crap shoot.
WAGER: Cardinals +119
Boston Red Sox @ NY Yankees
What can you say about the Red Sox these days that isn’t already floating around the sports networks? The Sox will turn this thing around eventually, but it’s very unclear when. James Paxton dominated them last night after a pair of poor outings on the road.
This evening, they get an easier matchup against J.A. Happ. Happ has been hit for 12 runs in 12.1 innings, but half of those runs came in a bad start against Toronto. The Sox hope to get this type of performance out of his tonight. Nathan Eovaldi has been very disappointing as well, yielding 14 runs in 15 innings, including 5 against the Blue Jays last time out. Neither pitcher is reliable in handicapping this game, so I’ll go with the stronger bullpen since this one may rely heavily on the relievers. Lineups in their current compositions are somewhat of a wash. Give me the home team laying a little extra juice.
WAGER: Yankees -112
Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins
Don’t look now, but the Cubbies have won 4 of 5 and are putting together solid games, merging solid pitching with timely hitting. Miami hasn’t put up too much resistance in the first 2 games, but young phenom Sandy Alcantara looks to avoid the sweep. He has a great opener vs. Colorado then has stumbled due to putting way too many runners on base. The Marlins offense has been rough, as expected, only putting up 2 runs or less in their last 7 of 8 games.
Cole Hamels has adjusted very well to life as a veteran with a good lineup behind him. Though he has given up a homer in each game this year, Hamels has limited the damage and has gone deep in the last 2 games. The Cubs offense is clicking and should get it done this evening in Miami. They have the superior bullpen and lineup, but you pay for that advantage in the line price.
WAGER: Cubs RL +100
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves
Arizona’s bats got it done last night in a solid road win over the red-hot Braves. Zack Godley gets the task of stopping Atlanta tonight, though he has struggled in his last 2 outings that weren’t against Boston. He’s given up 2 homers in those losses, something that Atlanta can do damage with. Don’t sleep on the D-backs lineup.
Kevin Gausman is a solid veteran pitcher that has the potential to eat innings and get the Atlanta bullpen some rest. Their pen was inept last night and could not keep them in the game. Arizona has a chance to jump on him and throw this game out of whack, but I have to fade Godley and give a strong edge to this potent Braves offense.
WAGER: Braves RL +125
Extra Plays
LAA @ TEX: Matt Harvey has been rocked in his last couple starts, while Lance Lynn has settled down from a rough opener against the Cubs. He’s limited the damage to 3 runs in 13 innings while the Texas offense is in a little scoring surge.
KC @ CHW: Don’t watch this game when the bullpens are called upon. Anything goes. But I have to back my man Brad Keller and his strong sinker against a free-swinging White Sox lineup. Kansas City’s great defense has his back, but the bats need to capitalize on Giolito’s high WHIP.
