Monday’s 1-1 split marked the third straight day with such a record. However, yesterday’s split earned +1.26 units because of Texas’ big +226 underdog win in 11 innings. As ho-hum as last week ended, this one began with a bang.
As noted yesterday, Mike Minor was poised to keep the Rangers in the game while Sale got his 10 strikeouts. Minor pitched 8 solid innings at Fenway and got decent support from the bullpen despite Kelley giving away the slim lead and damn near letting the game completely slip away. Miami, on the other hand, was a total whiff on my part just like the Royals yesterday. I need to err on the side of caution more often in games that feature the Cardinals, Pirates, and Reds.
Speaking of Cincinnati, I like the road dog and Luis Castillo but cannot pull the trigger due to the previously-stated “commitments” keeping me away from the Reds. So we’ll trudge on without them and look at yet another pair of plays for Tuesday…
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies
Stay Hot: Diamondbacks +116
I steered away from Taylor Clarke last night in Philly, and justly so as he gave up 2 home runs and 4 earned runs in 3.1 innings. The thing is, Arizona managed to score 13 runs on their way to a 13-8 slugfest victory. They’ve won 5 games in a row and 7-3 in their last 10, including 4 straight on the road after sweeping the Blue Jays. The D-backs improve their road record to 21-16 on the season.
Jon Duplantier gets his third start of the season against a powerful Philly lineup. In his 2 previous starts, he went 5 innings in each game and gave up 1 home run, 5 earned runs, and a 1.2 WHIP. His ground ball rate is decent (45.5%) but hard contact rate is concerning (47.3%) against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.
Jake Arrieta has cooled off from his good start to the season. Including a solid outing in Chicago, his last 6 have been rough: 21 earned runs and 9 home runs over 34.2 innings. His 51.0% ground ball rate can frustrate hitters but the 20.9% HR/fly ball rate offers promise for a hot-hitting Arizona club.
Both teams have decent bullpens, though neither are bulletproof. Duplantier will not likely make it past the 5th inning and Arrieta has not made it past the 5th in his last 2 starts as he was roughed up for 5 home runs and 10 runs. My metrics put this as a coin flip with a shade to Arizona but it’s the current form of the Diamondbacks that push this one to a plus-money play on the road dog.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Avoid the Pen: Orioles F5 (TBD)
Both teams had Monday off, which was well-timed to stop the bleeding that each club has endured. Toronto has scored 6 runs in their last 4 games while giving up 28. Baltimore slightly more successful, notching a win against the Astros and mustering 10 runs in their last 4 games.
Trent Thornton has hit a rough patch in his last 3 starts with 3 home runs and 10 earned runs in 9.2 innings. He has a low 33.7% ground ball rate which is arguably balanced out by a decent 21.5% soft contact rate. His 2.23 K/BB ratio isn’t bad but he issues way too many walks (4.31/9 innings). John Means has been good most of the season and enters tonight’s game with a great 31.4% hard contact rate that should aid in furthering the Blue Jays’ offensive woes. He limits the long ball – only 3 home runs in his last 5 games and none in his last 2.
I like the incremental advantages with Means over Thornton and the Orioles offense over the Jays. Toronto’s offense continues to struggle and Means is in good form. Anything goes with these younger starters on bad teams, but I think Means holds it down at Camden Yards tonight. I cannot trust their bullpen and must play the first 5 inning bet if the price is anything plus-money once it is posted to the board.
