The beat goes on for the Braves, although big props go out to Adrian Houser for a very good performance last night. The Brew Crew really needed Houser to step up and eat some innings to spare a downtrodden bullpen, and he delivered. Junior Guerra stepped up out of the pen and logged 2 crucial innings of relief work, helping Atlanta squander a huge opportunity in the 7th.
Regardless, Freddie Freeman’s monster 3-run bomb off the centerfield scoreboard was the pivotal play that put the Braves up for good. Max Fried was solid, though he was pulled after 5 innings due to a blister developing on his hand. He showed resolve and worked out of a couple big jams himself. The key nugget moving forward is that Milwaukee’s pitchers combined to shut down Atlanta’s big opportunities and provided their usual bullpen characters some much-needed rest. This could prove critical towards grabbing a win tonight and stopping the bleeding.
The Atlanta Solo Shot win keeps things going nicely out of the All-Star Break. 4 days, 4 games, 4 wins for +4.69 units. Unfortunately, Tuesday’s card is laden with a ton of unproven starting pitchers that I must pass on. Some of the other matchups have unfavorable numbers so I will exert my discipline and lay low on those as well. No need to press with a ton of opportunities left in the MLB.
I would be remiss if I didn’t have some handicapping to share. For the past decade or so, I’ve had access to a couple great NASCAR minds to learn from. This has led me to betting season futures and race winners for the past few years with some success. However, the most lucrative aspect of my NASCAR handicapping this season has been race matchups. Here’s some thoughts I have for this weekend’s stop on the NASCAR Cup Series…
Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 @ New Hampshire
The New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a 1-mile oval that could be characterized as a “regular old race track”. The Cup Series used to race there twice a year until 2018, when the frequency was reduced to only a summer race. Mainstays like Kevin Harvick have won the race twice in the last 4 runnings, with Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin winning the other 2.
The 301 will be run on Sunday, July 21st but the first practice and qualifying will take place Friday the 19th. The teams will get another pair of practices in on Saturday before race day. My handicapping approach is to zero in on drivers I think will have matchup value prior to practices and qualifying, then solidify my positions after seeing how well the teams are prepared for the track.
Kyle Larson #42 v. Erik Jones #20
It can be easy to forget that Larson is one of those young drivers that actually has a lot of experience in Cup races. He’s raced at New Hampshire since 2014 and has had success there, most notably a pair of 2nd place finishes in both 2017 runnings. In fact, 12th is his worst finish in the last 4 at New Hampshire. Additionally, Larson has been quite good on 1-mile tracks in his career.
Kyle survived the mess that was the Coke 400 at Daytona a couple weekends ago. He’s logged a couple top-5 finishes at Chicago before that and at Kentucky last week. I’m looking at Larson against Erik Jones, another young driver who we’ve been backing in the last month or so. He’s been placing well lately, getting 3 top-10 finishes in his last 4 races (with Daytona being the sole blemish). Jones is somewhat unproven at New Hampshire and I like Larson’s experience on this track as a comparison. Larson is a dog to Jones, which makes this even more appetizing.
Ryan Blaney #12 v. Clint Bowyer #14
Ryan Blaney has less experience than Kyle Larson, but is another young driver that we like to get behind in the right situation. Outside of the 400 race at Daytona, he’s placed in the top 15 in the last 6 races. He’s raced at New Hampshire 6 times, placing in the top 20 in the last 5 runnings. Blaney shows signs of continual improvement there, notching top 10 finishes in his last 2.
Clint Bowyer is a seasoned veteran that has been quite inconsistent this year. He finished 6th last week in Kentucky but has been outside the top 30 in 3 of his last 5 races. Clint had a pair of 7th place finishes in New Hampshire in the 2017 runnings, but has been outside the top 20 in 5 of the last 7 races there. Considering that Blaney is +105 against Bowyer right now (Tuesday AM), I lean strongly towards Blaney’s steady improvement as compared to Bowyer’s wild fluctuations and tendency to finish well outside the pack at times.
