The Twins finally got their series sweep against the Angels yesterday after the game was delayed from Wednesday night. I implemented a -1 run line using a 50-50 split of the money line and traditional -1.5 run line. Turns out that it wasn’t necessary as they launched 8 home runs and crushed the souls of the Angels on their way out of town. I wasn’t auto-fading Matt Harvey, but might as well have with that powerful Minnesota lineup.
That win didn’t completely cover the run line fail on the New York Yankees (props to our guy Bail who gutted out the -200 lay). With a 5-1 lead in hand, the Yankees gave up 4 runs in the bottom of the 8th and then squeezed a run across in the 9th to win by 1 run. My immediate reaction was regret for laying -130 on the run line, which I was hesitant to do in the first place. I’m not sure if this is results-based thinking or if I truly reached for this play and paid the price.
Regardless, I ended Thursday with a 1-1 record for a -0.20 unit loss. I’m spinning my wheels so far this week with a 2-3 record for -0.91 units. Nothing too hateful but a direction I want to turn around going into the weekend. A couple of wins tonight would surely do the trick.
I’m catching an afternoon flight to convene with the BetCrushers team for a big weekend of website work and NFL preparations. Nothing like the prospect of the NFL season to get the juices flowing. We’re very excited to fully launch our BetCrushers.com website, which will be the home of these articles moving forward in addition to a growing base of content and full archives of all of our picks. It will be a humble start to something we hope will grow with each coming season and offer everyone our opinions to consider.
That being said, I’ve got some work to do on the flight. It’s time for me to crunch some numbers and back test this -1 run line concept to my handicapping approach. I’m on the fence as to which is correct in various scenarios, but in the meantime I’m using it again in one of tonight’s plays…
Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals
Well Rested: Cardinals RL (-1) +125/-147
How much does rest and travel play into handicapping a single game in the MLB? I can’t truly quantify it, but those factors are intangibles that can nudge me on or off of a play. In this case, the Cardinals come off of a much-needed day of rest after a Wednesday double-header with the Royals. Atlanta rolls into St. Louis after a 13-inning grind in San Francisco.
Mike Foltynewicz had a promising start against Milwaukee last time out, which has to give the Atlanta faithful a glimpse of his prior years’ form. Before that, however, he was hammered in his first 4 starts. Foltynewicz has yielded 10 home runs in 27 innings with a 23.3% home run/fly ball ratio. Even though he gets 20% soft contact, his 37.4% ground ball rate and the high home run percentage are not a good combination. The Braves come in on a roll, taking 3 out of 4 against the Giants and are 7-3 in their last 10.
Miles Mikolas is the analog to Foltynewicz, in that he was recently roughed up by the Texas Rangers after tossing 3 very good starts. He gets a lot of ground balls (48.3%) and does not give up a lot of hard contact (33.9%), which is important against a Braves lineup that can be threatening. The Cardinals bullpen is quite good, though they have a tinge of volatility that does not seem to be that unusual in the MLB anymore. Bullpens, baby! All in all, I give the Cardinals offense an edge and believe their bullpen is in better condition to keep the lead or tip the scales against a tired Atlanta relief unit.
Seattle Mariners @ Oakland A’s
With Prejudice: A’s RL +120
My thesis on this game is quite simple: Wade LeBlanc struggles to pitch 5 innings and turns it over to a Seattle bullpen that is less than capable to handle a large workload. They give their opponents plenty of opportunities to extend a lead or get back into the game, which is important considering I am going full run line with the A’s here. 93% of all contact off of LeBlanc is either medium or hard, which is going right into the teeth of an A’s offense that is in good form. They’ve scored at least 5 runs in 5 of their last 6 games via consistent hitting. LeBlanc has given up 28 hits in 18.1 innings.
Daniel Mengden comes with a downside too, notably the uncertainty in his offering. I would typically shy away from backing a starter with only 2 outings in this part of the season but I have a lean against the Mariners in general. If he falters, which is entirely possible, he is backed by a bullpen that continues to improve even if there are certain members that are ticking time bombs when they hit the mound. His 57% hard contact rate is very concerning, as is the amount of walks he gave up in his first start. If he keeps his walks in check, the effects of giving up hard contact will be mitigated. Mengden doesn’t need to be great, just good enough.
Both teams just had a day of rest, so I expect bullpens to be at full strength. Khris Davis’ status is questionable, though the loss of Gordon and Healy for the Mariners somewhat balances Davis’ possible absence. Oakland comes into the game with great confidence from a successful road trip and a 7-3 record in their last 10 games. They are good at home, posting a 14-10 record at their spacious field (7-4 home v. AL West). Seattle is on an 0-4 road slump, which I expect to continue tonight.
