What are the odds? Tuesday’s 1-1 split makes it the fourth straight day with such a record. I scratched out +0.09 units on the split, lifting this week to 2-2 for +1.35 units. Arizona disappointed me though their offense battled hard, missing a pair of late-game 3-run homers by a matter of a couple feet. Duplantier struggled early and the D-backs could not overcome the 4 runs he spotted the Phillies.
The Baltimore F5 wager cashed nicely though Means had a rocky start in the 1st inning. He recovered well and kept the Jays’ damage to a meager 1 run. The Orioles won the full game but I will say that it was nice to lock up a win early in the evening, especially as Arizona was struggling to keep up with the Phillies.
My card expands to a full 3 games today…shocking! A couple dog value plays rose to the top, as they have the last few days. Plus I’ve got a semi-aggressive play on a favorite. Let’s dive in and keep the trajectory upwards…
Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies
Mile High Heat: Rockies +138
I hate to read too much into streaks and trends but you have to respect the fact that the Rockies have won their last 10 games at home. They’re also on an impressive 12-4 run and look to keep the fire stoked this afternoon. On the flip side, the Cubs have lost 5 straight on the road. Business as usual, or will someone’s streak be broken?
Cole Hamels has had a very good season so far, notching 2 huge starts in a row (both against the Cardinals). Hamels has an impressive 53.3% ground ball rate and a respectable 11.1% home run/fly ball rate. He will need to maintain these levels against this hot Colorado offense at Coors Field today.
Antonio Senzatela is an interesting guy to handicap. He has slightly better metrics at home, but nothing too earth shattering to say that he has a distinguishable home-road split factor. Senzatela has a comparable ground ball rate (52.3%) but a much higher 20.4% home run/fly ball ratio. Regardless, he has done well to limit damage except in an odd game here and there that have inflated his overall metrics.
Backing Senzatela always comes with the risk of one of those meltdown games, otherwise he’s bound to produce a quality start. I like how the Rockies bullpen has been performing lately, as opposed to the Cubs’ relievers. Both offenses have the ability to put up runs so it’s a no-brainer for me to take the home dog that is running hot at Coors Field.
Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox
Making Their Mark: Rangers +135
Texas had a convincing 9-5 win last night after a gritty comeback victory over Chris Sale and the Sox on Monday. They go for a third in this 4-game set with Lance Lynn on the mound. Lynn has been quite good lately, though his overall metrics paint him as an average pitcher: 40.3% ground ball, .345 BABIP, 39.1% hard contact. But his last 3 games have been solid, giving up only 1 home run and 7 earned runs over 18.1 innings and racking up a 25 K/4 BB ratio.
Rick Porcello’s last 3 outings have been a bit rougher, yielding 14 earned runs and 2 homers in 17.1 innings with a 13 K/5 BB ratio. His season-long metrics are better than Lynn’s: 42.0% ground ball, .296 BABIP, 32.8% hard contact. Current form favors Lynn, and I must say that Porcello really has his hands full today with a Rangers offense that has pop and scores efficiently.
Boston is 5-5 in their last 10 games, which includes a 1-5 mark at home. They’ve lost 5 of 6 and have scored 4 or more runs only twice in those last 6 games. Texas is 7-3 in their last 10 games and has brought in the cash, going 4-1 as a dog. Neither bullpen is trustworthy. I give edges to the Texas offense and Lynn over Porcello, making the plus-money side a bet.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros
Getting Greedy: Astros RL (-1) -125 ML/+155 ML
Brandon Woodruff had a great May but stumbled hard in his last 2 starts against the Pirates…so who knows what to make of that. In those games, he gave up 14 hits and 9 runs in 10 innings despite notching 15 strikeouts and only 3 walks. His K/BB ratio is very good (90/20) and almost stacks up to Verlander’s 110/19 ratio.
Justin Verlander has not been truly dominant this season, though he is still a guy that will log tons of innings and can work his way out of trouble with his strike-you-out mentality. He has a below-average 35.1% ground ball rate and a so-so 40.5% hard contact rate while typically yielding one home run a game. Verlander is quite good at stranding runners except in 2 of his last 3 starts where a “big inning” produced runs off of him.
I see this as a duel that will go Verlander’s way as he goes deep into the game. A shorter bullpen outing means the key bullpen guys should be able to squelch any late-game ideas that Milwaukee may have. Both bullpens have not been as sharp as usual lately, so a deep run is important for both pitchers. Milwaukee is 4-1 in their last 5 games, while Houston is 8-2 in their last 10 with a 3-1 mark at home during that stretch. Houston should be able to scratch out another win and I am taking a more aggressive stance with a manufactured -1 run line. Sure, it will push on a 1-run victory but I still want the prospect of a decent return on Verlander and a scrappy Astros club.
