It’s Sunday, and until the NFL season is up and running, Sunday is race day. Handicapping NASCAR at Watkins Glen is about as much of a challenge as racing it. OK, maybe that’s a weak comparison. Regardless, this unique road course blends seven turns with long straightaways in a grueling test unlike any other. Our Wednesday race preview gave a briefing on track details and initial thoughts on the Big Boys and Young Guns.
Knock-out qualifying on a road course is a big deal. The teams incorporated feedback from two practice sessions for the knock-out qualification rounds. Positions 13-40 were set in the first round, with the top 12 drivers going to the second round where the top slots were sorted out. The starting grid is set and it’s no surprise that defending champion Chase Elliott grabbed the pole. There’s a lot to unpack from Saturday’s action, so let’s dive in.
Revisiting the Mid-Week Thoughts
Edging Out Chase Elliott
Can a strong run on this track turn his season around or is it too late? He sits in the 8th spot on the Cup Series standings and is locked in for the playoffs with his win at Talladega. The major issue with the #9 Chevrolet team is their ongoing struggle to stay competitive since his string of T5s ended at Michigan.
Chase looks to have the car to beat today at The Glen. He sat at +1000 to win early in the week but his number has dropped to +550 after taking the pole and turning in brilliant practice runs. Elliott and the #9 team should be confident with a legitimate shot at taking the checkered flag in consecutive years. Does this change our perspective on the matchups against him?
Pre-Qual Positions: Hamlin (-115), Harvick (+105) over Elliott
Harvick now sits at a whopping +175 against the pole-sitter. The #4 car looked lackluster yesterday and the odds certainly reflect Chase’s significantly better performance in qualifying. Our +105 position is quite weak considering the 70-cent move. The experienced Harvick could pull off the matchup victory (or Elliot could disappoint), but we cannot advise backing him at this point.
Denny Hamlin’s matchup price got juicer, moving from -115 to +115 after qualifying 6th. Hamlin was strong on Saturday, logging 3rd and 7th-best laps in practice. This is about where we and the oddsmakers expected him to be, especially considering his recent success at The Glen. Elliott has the car to beat and should be very confident, but don’t sleep on Denny today. If you like the #11 and/or handicap a disappointing run for Chase, Hamlin +115 is a very good plus-money play.
Work in Kurt Busch
Busch has a strong record at The Glen and is a good guy to back in matchups this week. He’s proven that he can get into the Top 10 from any starting position in years past. Since joining the Stewart-Haas team in 2014, Kurt has finished no worse than 11th here. A prime example came last year when he finished 9th after starting in the 36th position. The key is to be selective with the three key matchups to involve him in, playing no more than two of these to limit exposure to a wreck or other major setback for the #1 team on Sunday.
Kurt Busch is a prime example of a driver that squeezes everything he can get out of his car. The #1 team turned in mediocre 17th and 18th-best runs in practice, yet they got the car into the second qualifying round for today’s 7th starting position. You can’t overlook his Chevy’s disadvantage to the Gibbs Toyotas but this guy can bust ass at Watkins Glen.
Pre-Qual Position: Kurt (+105) over Blaney
Ryan Blaney is putting in work this season, and his progression as a driver has him in 10th place of the NASCAR Cup Series standings. His car looked good in practice but qualified a disappointing 19th. This is a situation where I prefer Busch’s experience on this unique track over the “hotter driver” angle. Though this matchup has gotten pricier at Kurt -118, it is still playable at a near-pick ’em.
Wednesday’s article also discussed Kurt vs. Keselowski and Logano. You’ll have to pay a steep -135 to get him against Logano, which seems to be a fair price considering Logano will start 21st. The +100 against Keselowski is less appetizing after seeing Brad go to work on Saturday. We do not have a position on these two matchups despite our support for Kurt Busch elsewhere.
Additional Race Day Positions:
Keselowski (-125) over Logano
Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano have been trading blows week after week this season. Logano is on top of the Cup Series standings, while Keselowski sits in 6th place. Joey has won 2 races in 2019 and Brad has taken home 3 checkered flags. One could argue that Logano has been slightly stronger in the last couple months overall, though Keselowski’s #2 has certainly been in the mix.
Neither of these two Fords have been spectacular the last two years at The Glen. Though Brad finished outside the Top 10 in those races, Logano placed no better than 24th. Joey won here in 2015 and has quite a few T10s under his belt. Despite that, the #2 has been very good on this road course and appears to have the superior machine for today’s 90 laps.
Kurt (-125) Top 10
Last but not least, we’ll revisit Kurt Busch. The #1 car put himself in good starting position (7th) after a pair of mediocre practice runs yesterday. I expect Kurt to stay strong and deliver his 6th T10 finish in his last 7 races at Watkins Glen. He should be hanging around that 10th place position, so don’t be surprised if this is a close one.
