Every handicapper and bettor has a particular approach and style. Whether it is the use of a system, access to great information, or a solid handicapping approach, consistent winners find a way to get it done. A guy like me makes 1-4 plays a day during the MLB season (typically plus-money situations) and grinds out an incremental advantage over the 6 months.
This week is a prime example of steadily inching forward with a 5-5 record for +0.87 units. I’m always optimistic for a 3-0, 3-1 type of breakout day to offset the inevitable losers but I understand how the trajectory can be when betting a limited number of games. Today, I find myself on the high end of my daily range with 4 wagers. Playing plus-money situations forces you to accept the fact that you’re losing a few more games than you’re winning.
Last night, the Tribe reinforced my underlying feeling that they cannot be trusted with my money. Their loss to the Orioles puts me at 0-3 on the Indians this season (and 1-0 against them) so they are now on the “no fly” list unless an amazing opportunity presents itself later in the season or they manage to find consistency at some point.
Rich Hill didn’t need anywhere near the amount of run support the Dodgers’ offense gave him as he made the Reds look foolish. Desclafani did not bring his A-game and LA teed off early and often. The bright spot of the night was Chicago’s throttling of the Nationals. Specifically, their taking advantage of a terrible Nationals bullpen. Scherzer and Hamels were sub-par, though my assessment of Hamels being Scherzer Lite this season was accurate. It was nip-and-tuck for a while but the dam broke late and the Cubs feasted.
Friday’s 1-2 shaved 0.63 units but the trajectory is still solidly upwards. That could all change with 4 tickets in pocket on this great early-summer Saturday…
Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals
Same as Yesterday: Cubs +126
We are essentially looking at a similar scenario as last night. Sure, the Cubs used some of their strong bullpen arms in an attempt to keep it tight after Hamels’ exit. The offenses performed as expected in light of the opposing bullpens’ track record and the starters were equally as “meh”. Lester vs. Strasburg is another good pitching matchup for game 2 of this series between division contenders.
Jon Lester has scattered 5 earned runs over 38.2 innings, gets a good amount of strikeouts, and limits walks. His basic metrics have been amazing but I must knock him down a couple notches for the sake of handicapping this game against an improving Nationals club. A 1.16 ERA / 3.41 xFIP split warrants this though I still expect him to produce well today. The Nats have been getting their knocks so an excellent outing is hard to expect. The Cubs continue to roll at 7-3 in their last 10 games despite a stumble in Cincinnati.
Stephen Strasburg has been quite good this season as well. He doesn’t present hitters many opportunities, has huge strikeout numbers, and gives his team 6+ innings. As with Scherzer, this depth is critical for reducing exposure to their bullpen to which there is no answer for. Despite assessing the starters as a wash, this is far from a slam dunk as Washington is starting to get their offense rolling.
NY Mets @ Miami Marlins
An Uncharacteristic Lay: Mets -126
Steven Matz returns from the IL to face a Marlins club that got took one from the Mets last night. He was crushed by Philly a month ago but has generally been good enough to give NY a chance to win. That’s not a glowing endorsement for the kid, but you have to take everything in context; good enough can get it done against the Marlins. I’m not very impressed with the Mets offense right now, especially when it comes to their slow starts in games. That’s the reason why I have taken the rare path of eschewing the run line and laying a number that pushes the limits of my approach.
Pablo Lopez is a big reason why the Mets are only -126 today. Other than his opener against Colorado, the only team he’s beaten this season is Cleveland…and you know how I feel about Cleveland right now. Lopez has a lot of promise and can give Miami a very good effort in this one. But we’ve seen this story with the Marlins before: they lose several in a row then dig deep and get a huge upset with a +200 or greater payout. Last night was the big upset and the track record is there to suggest another multi-game skid is coming. In their last 10 games, they’ve gone 2-8 and failed to score more than 2 runs in any of the losses.
LA Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds
Another Number Grab: Reds +140
Finding “value” doesn’t mean just betting a side for plus money. Point being, I’m not calling this one a value play just because it pays +140. Instead, I’ve grabbed the +140 because this pitching matchup is oddly close to even in my eyes. Walker Buehler has the stuff to be LA’s future ace and has splashed 3 great starts between 5 mediocre ones this season. He’s young and has talent, so that’s to be expected. And he’s got the support of a powerful and stacked lineup that is a secret to nobody.
That being said, my biggest concern with Tyler Mahle is giving up too many home runs at times. And here he goes against a bunch of sluggers. And my money is against those sluggers again today. Mahle is not a future ace but has an equally-good probability of performing as well as (or poorly as) Buehler given their current form. What are we getting with either of these pitchers? The Reds have a sketchy offense but can get it done at home. With a lot of uncertainty, I just think the +140 is too good of a price to pass on. “Value” trap, perhaps.
Kansas City Royals @ LA Angels
All or Nothing: Angels RL +115
Tonight’s face-off between Jakob Junis and Griffin Canning does not inspire much confidence in the under. Junis has pitched well twice against the Rays but has struggled otherwise. Part of his inconsistency lies in giving up clusters of home runs in certain starts. The Royals offense is inconsistent too, especially in recent weeks. In their last 10 games they have put up double-digit runs twice but scored 1 or fewer on 5 occasions.
Canning has not been good in his 3 starts this season, especially in his last outing where he gave up 3 home runs. My wager is not a vote of confidence on the pitcher as much as it is on the situation. KC is 5-15 on the road, as opposed to the Angels who are 12-9 at home. LA returned from a 9-game road trip and took care of business against the Royals last night with Matt Harvey on the mound. Ask yourself this: is Canning worse than Harvey right now? Regardless, I give the Angels offense and bullpen slight edges in this one.
