A pair of one-run losses last night leads to a nasty -2.4 unit loss for Tuesday, and now makes three one-run losses in a row. We’ll see about getting that turned around soon. A sloppy first inning by the Yankees spotted the Padres 4 runs, which was just enough for them to ride to victory in the rainy Bronx. That opening frame included an infield hit, fielding error, bloop hit, and bomb. That’s what a big underdog needs to do to get the money, and they delivered for their backers.
St. Louis came out strong, but Pivetta pulled things together and gave up only the 3 early runs and issued 2 walks. Both bullpens were strong, but Pivetta out-dueled Wainwright. To add insult to injury, the cancelled Twins ticket would have gotten there as they assaulted the Brewers bullpen to notch a 5-3 victory.
No need to lament on those close losses because the MLB action keeps coming back at you. My card is full, so let’s get right after it…
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds
Send Off: Reds RL (-1) -150 RL/+120 ML
Ever since botching the opening game of Monday’s doubleheader, Cincinnati has really taken it to the Pirates. They’ve outscored them by 12 runs in the last couple games on the back of some surprisingly-good starts. And it may be possible that Derek Dietrich truly loves tormenting them by launching home runs. Since this afternoon’s conclusion to their 4-game series does not feature the best starters, anything goes.
Steven Brault is an adapted reliever who has not been sharp as a starter, but has limited damage to 2 earned runs in each of his last 2 starts. Anthony Desclafani has racked up 3 short starts in a row where he’s given up 4 earned runs in each, and 7 home runs across those outings. Backing him is like playing with fire, especially if you think that the Reds have overextended their offense in the last couple days. Will there be anything left in the tank to send the Pirates out of town tied with the Reds in the NL Central cellar?
Both bullpens should be fully stocked with their key arms. I give a slight nod to Cincinnati’s power and a mark for more bullpen consistency. Cincy has some wind in their sails, being on a 3-1 run that includes 2 wins in a row over the Pirates. Conversely, Pittsburgh is 1-5 in their last 6 games. This one could have a rough open between these starters as the Pirates try to salvage a split.
LA Angels @ Oakland A’s
Ride the Hot Team: A’s -102
It is difficult to get a good read on Griffin Canning. He’s had decent starts in his last 2 games at home after a pair of sub-par outings in Baltimore and Detroit. Is he susceptible to road woes, or has he settled down in general? Last night, the Angels snapped Oakland’s 9-game winning streak by breaking a 4-4 deadlock in the 9th inning. After losing 5 games, the Angels have now notched a 3-1 run that they wish to extend this afternoon.
Daniel Mengden was able to keep it together in his last start against Seattle, where he got way too deep in his pitch count to make it past the 4th inning. He has yielded only 1 earned run in each of his last 2 starts after a rocky 2019 debut against Cleveland. Both teams have scored 18 runs in their last 3 games, which is a change of pace for the Angels. Prior to this stretch, the LA offense had been trending downward. Their bullpen continues to be a soft spot despite holding the A’s to 0 runs last night. I still prefer the overall improvements that Oakland has made with their bats and in the bullpen. They are a good home team (18-11) that excels against the AL West in the coliseum (11-5).
San Francisco Giants @ Miami Marlins
What’s in a Name?: Marlins +104
MadBum is a San Francisco legend who continues to get it done despite a slight decline in velocity. When you look at his game log in May, you see that he’ll give the Giants a fairly predictable 6 innings with 2-4 earned runs and a home run. His command is still quite good, sporting a 70 K/19 BB ratio for the season. The big problem is that the Giants as a team doesn’t do much otherwise to support their starters. Their offense is poor and recently has been even less efficient at converting runs.
Not that Miami is lighting up the scoreboards either (well, except for last night), but they are on an impressive 7-3 run that includes 3-0 at home. Their bullpen has tightened up a little bit though it is difficult as a handicapper to count on them to lock down the opposition. We want to focus our attention on Miami’s starter, Pablo Lopez, as he and his 5.40 ERA face a sputtering Giants lineup. Looking at his home splits, you see that he is a totally different pitcher in Miami. .175 BAA, .275 SLG, 0.77 WHIP, and 20% soft contact are all metrics that I can appreciate going against a weak offense. It’s tough to expect excellence from Lopez, but he should be able to do enough to hold the Giants down and limit exposure to the Marlins bullpen.
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
Fade is On: Rangers +114
With Smyly facing off against Leblanc, you have to expect the offenses to get their rips in today. Smyly gives up 53.5% hard contact and only 28.3% of it is with ground balls. The Rangers offense has been fairly consistent all year as an efficient run-scoring club that has a weakness against lefties (like Wade Leblanc). Their lineup is top-loaded and their damage is usually done in clusters.
Wade Leblanc gives up runs way too easily for an MLB starting pitcher. His 8 home runs and 19 earned runs over 23.1 innings slightly outpaces Smyly’s 8 home runs and 23 earned runs over 33.2 innings. Both have surrendered 33 hits, though Leblanc has done so in 10 fewer innings. Let’s be crystal clear: neither starter is very good. However, a weak argument can be made that Smyly has a better chance at minimizing the impact of a Seattle lineup that has the potential for great power but is very inconsistent. I’ll err on the side of slightly more consistency in all three phases this afternoon from Texas and take my chances with the dog, fading the Mariners yet again. Bullpens are shaky, so hold on tight!
